Noel’s Weekend Winners: Spotlight on Saratoga Stakes

Gambling
Saratoga Race Course, Saratoga Derby Invitational, Saratoga Special, Eclipse Sportswire
Horses race on the turf course in a stakes at Saratoga Race Course earlier during the 2024 summer meet. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

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Six Beginner Betting Tools

  1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
  2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
  3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
  4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
  5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
  6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

The Saratoga Race Course summer meet is moving right along and now that we’ve reached the back half of the meet you can count on major stakes races to be on the schedule every Saturday the rest of the way. This Saturday was scheduled to feature a total of four graded stakes on the program including two Grade 1 turf features, the Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes and the Fourstardave Handicap, however both chave been moved to Sunday based on expected excessively wet turf conditions. The Saturday card will include one of the Spa’s signature 2-year-old races of the meet, the Grade 2 Saratoga Special Stakes. For this weekend’s winners, let’s pick the winners of the Saratoga Special and the Saratoga Derby Invitational. If we can cash-in on these two key stakes races, we will be well on our way to a successful weekend at Saratoga. Best of luck!

Saturday, Aug. 10

Saratoga Race Course, Race 8, $200,000 Saratoga Special Stakes, post time 4:29 p.m. ET

Showcase, Coglianese Photos
Debut win from Showcase (NYRA/Coglianese Photos)

The Grade 2 Saratoga Special will “showcase” nine 2-year-olds set to run 6 ½ furlongs for a purse of $200,000. #2 Showcase goes out for the Todd Pletcher barn, which is annually the top-winning outfit in Saratoga juvenile races. Showcase began his career with a splash last time in his career debut when he was bet down to 7-10 odds on the tote board and then delivered with a 7 ½-length win after rating professionally right off the leader in the early stages. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the mount. Many of the horses in this race were recent impressive maiden winners, and along with Showcase, #4 First Resort was among the most impressive of them all. He was sent off favored in a 10-horse field at Ellis Park and then survived a speed duel all the way around the track until drawing off in the stretch to a 3 ½-length win at first asking. He could be the real deal for Eoin Harty, training for Godolphin, with Flavien Prat picking up the mount. If the main track is still wet at Saratoga on Saturday afternoon, First Resort is already proven on a muddy track.

The Play:  Bet #2 Showcase (6-1) to win and play him in an exacta box with #4 First Resort (7-2).

Sunday, Aug. 11

weekend TV schedule

Thursday, Aug. 8: 1-6:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Friday, Aug. 9: 1-6:30 p.m. and 8-11 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, Aug. 10: 12:30-1 p.m., 2:30-3 p.m. and 6-7 p.m. on FS2; 1-2:30 p.m. on FS1; 3-6 p.m. on FOX; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, Aug. 11: 9:30-10:30 a.m. and 2-3:30 p.m. on FS2; 1-2 p.m. and 3:30-6:30 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saratoga Race Course, Race 11, $600,000 Saratoga Derby Invitational, post time 6:49 p.m. ET 

A field of eight 3-year-olds was entered for the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational going 1 3/16 miles on the grass. The race is scheduled to go as Saturday’s sixth race but could be switched to the back of Sunday’s Spa program as Race 11 due to forecasts of heavy rain, so stay tuned. Some of the biggest-name turf barns are taking a crack in this spot, including trainers Charlie Appleby, Christophe Clement, Bill Mott, and Graham Motion. Clement has two runners entered, and it might be the more low-profile horse of the two – #4 Carson’s Run – who turns out to be the best. Carson’s Run just missed when second in the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes on this course last year and then returned to win a Grade 1 at Woodbine in the bet365 Summer Stakes. He was given a layoff after finishing ninth in the Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf but has been on the comeback trail already this season, including a solid win last time in the $100,000 Tale of the Cat Stakes at Monmouth Park. Now he’s ready to fire his best shot today in the third race of his form cycle and could turn out to be better than these at a price based on the talent he flashed last year with the logical progression from age 2 to age 3. Clement’s other horse, #6 Deterministic, is no slouch, either. He switched to turf for the first time in his last race and ran second within a length of Neat, who is arguably the top horse in the 3-year-old turf division. #8 Trikari has been consistently good at the stakes level this year and exits a Grade 1 win in the Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes last time in addition to a win in the Grade 2 American Turf Stakes Presented by TwinSpires at Churchill Downs this spring.

The Play: Bet to win on #4 Carson’s Run (8-1) to win and play him in three-horse exacta and trifecta boxes along with #6 Deterministic (9-2) and #8 Trikari (3-1).

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