Noel’s Weekend Winners: Big Easy Betting Strategy for Louisiana Derby Day

Gambling
Track Phantom, Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, Hodges Photography
Gun Runner and Lecomte Stakes winner Track Phantom figures to be tough to defeat in the Louisiana Derby Saturday at Fair Grounds. (Lou Hodges, Jr. /Hodges Photography)

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1.25 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.


Six Beginner Betting Tools

  1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
  2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
  3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
  4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
  5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
  6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

Saturday, March 23

weekend Television schedule

Friday, March 22: post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, March 23: 3-6:30 p.m. on FS2; 6-7 p.m. on CNBC; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, March 24: 3-6 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on FanDuel TV

The Fair Grounds meet comes to a close this weekend, but the season will go out with a bang with the biggest day of the year in Louisiana racing schedule this Saturday. Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby day at Fair Grounds will feature eight total stakes races on a 12-race card that finishes strong with four graded stakes for the last four races, ending with the Grade 1 $1 million Louisiana Derby in the nightcap. With all those stakes, you know the undercard will be strong, and the top race leading up to the Louisiana Derby arguably will be Race 9, The Grade 2 New Orleans Classic presented by Relyne GI By Hagyard for older horses, which starts the late Pick 4. This weekend’s focus will be on picking the winners of these two headline races. If you can cash in the New Orleans Classic and the Louisiana Derby, you will be well on your way to a winning Saturday. Best of luck.

Fair Grounds, Race 9, $500,000 New Orleans Classic, post time 5:04 p.m. ET

The Grade 2 New Orleans Classic drew a field of 10 older horses set to go 1 1/8 miles on the main track. #9 Best Actor will be up on the pace where he likes to be, but he is very likely to have company up front with a few other speedy horses in this race, especially if #3 Touchuponastar stays in the field. There seems to be enough pace in the race to help out the late runners at this distance of 1 1/8 miles, and that’s music to the ears of the most pace dependent closer in the race, #1 Red Route One, who will be running late and should rally in time for a slice. The other horse that will be rallying in the stretch but should get the jump on Red Route One from a better tactical position is #5 Money Supply, a win machine who comes into this race off five straight victories and who successfully stepped up versus stakes company last time out for trainer Joe Sharp and finished ahead of several of today’s same rivals. Rain is on the forecast in the New Orleans area this weekend, and if that’s the case, Money Supply has already won three races in a row on wet tracks. Money Supply can extend his streak at least one more race.

The Play: Bet to win on #5 Money Supply (9-2) and box him on in the exacta and trifecta with #1 Red Route One (6-1) and #9 Best Actor (7-2).

Fair Grounds, Race 12, $1 million Louisiana Derby, post time 6:42 p.m. ET

The much-anticipated Grade 2 Louisiana Derby is set to go this Saturday and the race has drawn a big, competitive field of a dozen 3-year-olds that will compete at 1 3/16 miles on the main track. The stakes are high because a win or a top finish here should be enough to give at least two of these runners the points they’ll need to qualify for a spot in the starting gate for the run for the roses. The horse to beat is the zippy #12 Track Phantom, who drew the far outside but will be sending for the lead anyway and has the speed to overcome the post draw with zero disadvantage. The question from there will be whether or not he is good enough to lead this field gate to wire at 1 3/16 miles, and the answer to that question is yes. Track Phantom won back-to-back races on the Fair Grounds road to the Triple Crown in the Gun Runner Stakes and the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes and finished second last time in a good effort behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star Stakes, which has been the best-quality Kentucky Derby prep race run so far this season. Thanks to the absence of Sierra Leone in this field, Track Phantom is once again the horse to beat. Chasing him will be several solid contenders, including the late running #5 Catching Freedom, who could benefit from the extra sixteenth of a mile distance of this race after he closed for third in the Risen Star for trainer Brad Cox. Finally, #7 Honor Marie is worth one more chance today at attractive morning line odds of 8-1 that offer good value on a horse who won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall and seemed to have needed his last race when fifth in the Risen Star off a 2 ½-month layoff.

The Play:  Bet #12 Track Phantom (3-1) to win and box him in the exactas and trifectas along with #5 Catching Freedom (4-1) and #7 Honor Marie (8-1).


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