Two of the best young fillies in North America will square off for the second time in Friday’s $600,000, Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes on opening day of the widely anticipated Keeneland fall meet.
The recent roster of Alcibiades winners is impressive. British Idiom (2019) and Wonder Wheel (2022) went on to win the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and earn champion 2-year-old filly honors at the Eclipse Awards. For good measure, Restless Rider (2018) and Juju’s Map (2021) finished second in the Juvenile Fillies.
Don’t be surprised if the 2023 Alcibiades proves similarly productive. The probable favorites, #7 Brightwork and #5 V V’s Dream, have shown flashes of serious talent. It’s not hard to envision a scenario where they use the Alcibiades as a springboard to running 1-2 in either order in the 2023 NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.
Brightwork may start as the Alcibiades favorite, and it’s easy to understand why. The bay filly by Outwork is undefeated in four starts for trainer John Ortiz. During the spring meet at Keeneland, she trounced the opposition in a maiden special weight race, winning by three lengths over Crimson Advocate who went on to win the Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Gulfstream Park and the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot in England.
Brightwork followed up her debut with a determined victory in the Debutante Stakes at Ellis Park, in which she led all the way to defeat the rallying V V’s Dream by half a length. Then came a pair of starts at the prestigious Saratoga Race Course meet, where Brightwork dominated the Grade 3 Adirondack Stakes by five lengths before battling to a half-length score against flashy maiden winner Ways and Means in the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes.
There you have it: four starts, four victories, including three stakes. But is Brightwork unbeatable in the Alcibiades? Not necessarily. She’s been a winning machine, but she’s never run farther than seven-eighths of a mile. The Alcibiades takes place at 1 1/16 miles, and the longer distance is at least a small question mark.
That stands in contrast to V V’s Dream, who figures to relish racing 1 1/16 miles. When she overcame a slow start to dominate her debut sprinting five-eighths of a mile at Churchill Downs, it was a sign of big things to come. Trainer Kenny McPeek isn’t known for cranking his juveniles to win on debut, so when they romp first-time out like V V’s Dream, bettors should sit up and take notice.
V V’s Dream was actually favored to beat Brightwork in the Debutante, and she didn’t run badly by any means, gamely battling down the stretch to finish second by half a length. V V’s Dream gained one length on Brightwork through the final furlong and might have won if they’d been running a slightly longer distance than three-quarters of a mile.
The two fillies have since gone their separate ways. While Brightwork was busy winning stakes at Saratoga, V V’s Dream was resting up for the Sept. 16 Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes racing one mile at Churchill Downs. Stretching out in distance proved to be no obstacle for V V’s Dream; in fact, she was full of run through the homestretch, pulling away under a hand ride to win by 8 3/4 lengths.
Brightwork defeated V V’s Dream in their first meeting, but tackling a significantly longer distance for their second meeting could shift the advantage. McPeek has won the Alcibiades five times, including two of the last five editions, and we’re willing to bet V V’s Dream will be primed for a peak performance at Keeneland.
To that end, we’ve outlined a pair of betting strategies based on $10 and $30 budgets. Both involve betting V V’s Dream to win and playing her over Brightwork in the exacta. The $30 strategy adds a trifecta using runaway Saratoga debut winner #8 Emery for third place. Emery hails from the barn of two-time Alcibiades-winning jockey Brad Cox, and she’ll be ridden by hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione. According to statistics from Brisnet, Gaffalione and Cox have gone 9-for-16 (56%) teaming up together over the last two months.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$7 to win on #5 V V’s Dream
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, Race 9, $7 to win on 5
$3 exacta: 5 with 7
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, Race 9, $3 exacta 5 with 7
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$15 to win on #5 V V’s Dream
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, Race 9, $15 to win on 5
$10 exacta: 5 with 7
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, Race 9, $10 exacta 5 with 7
$5 trifecta: 5 with 7 with 8
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, Race 9, $5 trifecta 5 with 7 with 8
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Pick 3
1-10-3
1-10-3
$150
Daily Double
10-3
10-3
$47
Superfecta
3-5-1-9
3-5-1-9
$64
Pick 3
1-10-3
1-10-3
$150
Daily Double
10-3
10-3
$47
Superfecta
3-5-1-9
3-5-1-9
$64
