Noel’s Weekend Winners: Saturday Stakes Bets at Belmont Park

Gambling
Belmont Park New York Peter Pan Stakes horse racing Runhappy Stakes Twisted Ride Stage Left Mr Phil Slip Mahoney Brad Cox Henry Q Frankie Dettori gambling betting Bishops Bay Classic Catch Todd Pletcher Irad Ortiz exacta trifecta
Making final wagering decisions under Long Island sunshine at Belmont Park. (Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1.25 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.


6 Beginner Betting Tools

  1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
  2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you.
  3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
  4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
  5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
  6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

Saturday, May 13

The season’s best racing is going on now at Belmont Park, and it is on full display this Saturday with a loaded 11-race card including three stakes topped by the local prep for the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes. Here are some stakes picks at Belmont Park this Saturday that can make the day enjoyable and profitable, too. Best of luck.

weekend Television schedule

Friday, May 12: 2-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, May 13: 12:30-4 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, May 14: 12:30-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Belmont Park, Race 6, $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes, post time 3:40 p.m. ET

If this year is anything like past years, the $200,000, Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes for 3-year-olds at 1 1/8 miles on the main track should yield at least one or two starters for the upcoming Belmont Stakes. This time around, the Belmont prep has drawn a nine-horse field and is a fascinating betting race. The morning-line favorite is #9 Bishops Bay, who comes into the race 2-for-2 including a career debut sprint win over eventual Stonestreet Lexington Stakes winner First Mission followed by an allowance route win at Fair Grounds for trainer Brad Cox. The sky is the limit for that horse, but at 8-5 versus a tough and more experienced field here going 1 1/8 miles, he’s worth taking a shot against, at least in the win pool. Including Bishops Bay, all five horses in the outside half of the field have speed and may want the lead which should result in a fast pace. If pace makes the race in the Peter Pan, then it could set-up for a late runner, and the most legitimate closer in the field looks like #5 Classic Catch trained by Todd Pletcher with none other than Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. Both of Classic Catch’s wins came at 1 1/8 miles from off the pace and he accomplished both without much pace to chase. He’ll get a ton of pace today and should come charging in the stretch. #2 Slip Mahoney keeps breaking poorly and spoiling his chances, but he has good tactical speed and would be a fit in this race if he can get off to a decent start. Finally, #8 Henry Q very interestingly shows up in this spot with jockey Frankie Dettori aboard. He had been considered for the Preakness Stakes but chooses this spot instead, perhaps signaling the longer Belmont Stakes will be this horse’s goal. In the meantime, however, he could be a factor here if he runs back to his 14-length win in Sunland Park’s Mine That Bird Derby back in February.

The Play: Bet #5 Classic Catch (9-2) to win and play him in an exacta key box along with #2 Slip Mahoney (4-1), #8 Henry Q (8-1), and #9 Bishops Bay (8-5). Finally, key Classic Catch over the same three horses in trifectas.

Belmont Park, Race 9, $175,000 Runhappy Stakes, post time 5:18 p.m. ET

The Runhappy is a very contentious six-furlong sprint race on the main track that has drawn a field of six horses, and you can make a case for all six of them, with morning-line odds for every horse in the field listed between 5-2 and 6-1. Anyone can win, but this is such a good betting race because the two “longshots” very well could prove to be the best with #5 Stage Left exiting a career-best kind of race in a stakes win in Maryland, and #6 Mr. Phil also looking good based on his victory over Stage Left on April 20 at Aqueduct. Mr. Phil might end up under constant pace harassment from #3 Twisted Ride, who invades from Parx Racing on a four-race winning streak, so let’s give the advantage to Stage Left to win and use the entire aforementioned trio in exactas and trifectas.

The Play:  Bet #5 Stage Left (6-1) to win and use him in both exacta and trifecta boxes along with #3 Twisted Ride (9-2) and #6 Mr. Phil (9-2). This gives us all three of the best-odds starters in the race.

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