The Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes Saturday at Keeneland not only sports a cool $1 million in purse money but also offers a spot in the starting gate for the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF in four weeks at Santa Anita Park.
Master of The Seas already has earned such a spot via his win in the Grade 1 Ricoh Woodbine Mile Stakes last month, but that doesn’t mean he’s just in Saturday’s race to stay in top shape. Eight other horses will try to earn that Breeders’ Cup spot, that group being led by last year’s Coolmore Turf Mile winner Annapolis, who had traffic trouble last month when fifth in the Grade 3 Mint Millions Stakes. Set Piece is another contender proven at the level as he enters this race off a win in the Grade 1 Arlington Million Stakes in August. Up to the Mark is a multiple winner at the level, having won the Grade 1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes in May and then the Grade 1 Resorts World Casino Manhattan Stakes in June. Atone won the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes Presented by Qatar Racing in January but is winless in four races since then. Stitched is one of the four trying to earn their first win in a Grade 1 stakes, but he may be this good as he won the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes in July. English Bee won the Grade 3 Virginia Derby in 2019 but hasn’t had much success in graded stakes since then. Indestructible won the Group 3 Bet365 Craven Stakes in April but has not finished better than fourth in four tries since then. Harlan Estate rounds out the field, having run the best race of his career in his most recent start at the end of August when victorious in the non-graded Tapit Stakes.
Top Win Contenders:
Master of The Seas is a true “miler” in that he has more wins at the distance in his career than at any other distance he has run, and he also has more wins at the distance than any other horse in this year’s Coolmore Turf Mile field. Four of his seven career victories have come at this one-mile turf trip, and he has won four times from eight tries at the distance. Most importantly, two of those wins came in Group 2 stakes races in England and in Dubai, and his most recent win came in the Grade 1 Ricoh Woodbine Mile. In that race, Master of The Seas showed a strong kick, running the last quarter mile in :22.5 seconds while drawing off with ease by almost four lengths and not being fully asked by his jockey. The 112 Equibase Speed Figure wasn’t his best, but he could have run faster, as evidenced by a 123 figure earned in the spring of 2021 in the English Two Thousand Guineas Stakes when he was beaten by a nose on the wire and by the 119 figure earned in July when he easily won the Summer Mile Stakes. Jockey James Doyle was in the saddle for that win and returns to ride in the Coolmore Turf Mile. Last but not least, trainer Charles Appleby continues on a tremendous string of successes in North America at the highest level. A Race Lens query reveals that in the last five years in Grade 1 stakes, Appleby’s runners have won 16 of 38 races, with eight more having finished second, and he’s won with 13 different horses. One of those was Modern Games, who won the Ricoh Woodbine Mile in 2022, before returning to Europe for a second-place finish, and then coming back to the states to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile. The fact Appleby has decided to let Master of The Seas run his prep for the Mile in this race is another strong factor in favor of win chances.
In 2022, Annapolis won the Saranac Stakes at Saratoga in September before shipping to Kentucky and winning the Coolmore Turf Mile, earning a career best 114 Figure in the process. He ran poorly in the Breeders’ Cup Mile the following month, took six months off and won his 2023 comeback race by a head. What followed were two very good efforts from Annapolis when second in the Kelso Stakes and Fourstardave Handicap, both earning 110 figures. In both races Annapolis was sent to post as the favorite but was beaten by Casa Creed, who notably is not running in Saturday’s race. In his most recent start, the Mint Millions Stakes, Annapolis might have won run much better than fourth, but he had his momentum stopped badly at a critical stage of the stretch run when he was squeezed between rivals. We can ignore that race and look to his two previous efforts – and to last year’s effort in the Coolmore Turf Mile – to come to the conclusion Annapolis can be a strong contender Saturday.
Set Piece, like Annapolis, has three career wins at this mile trip. He is also a Grade 1 winner like Annapolis and like Master of The Seas, having won the Arlington Million Stakes in August at the distance of 1 ¼ miles. In that race, Set Piece earned a strong 113 figure, just slightly less than the career-best 115 figure he earned last year when winning the Baltimore-Washington Turf Cup Stakes. With 13 wins in 29 races and over $1.75 million in earnings, Set Piece has proven to be a very tough competitor. The only possibly question mark I see is that in two races at Keeneland he has not run up to expectations, finishing seventh in the 2022 Maker’s Mark Mile and finishing fourth behind Annapolis in this race last year.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Atone (111), English Bee (110), Harlan Estate (114), Indestructible (110), Stitched (108) and Up to the Mark (115).
Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Master of The Seas
Annapolis
Set Piece
Pick 3
KEE TURF P3 5-1-5
KEE TURF P3 5-1-5
$2,920
Pick 4
6-1-2/9-5
6-1-2/9-5
$188
Pick 5
5-6-1-2/9-5
5-6-1-2/9-5
$18
Pick 5
5-6-1-2/9-5
5-6-1-2/9-5
$2,193
Pick 6
1-5-6-1-2/9-5
1-5-6-1-2/9-5
$326
Pick 6
1-5-6-1-2/9-5
1-5-6-1-2/9-5
$60,117
Superfecta
5-1-4-9
5-1-4-9
$6
Pick 3
KEE TURF P3 5-1-5
KEE TURF P3 5-1-5
$2,920
Pick 4
6-1-2/9-5
6-1-2/9-5
$188
Pick 5
5-6-1-2/9-5
5-6-1-2/9-5
$18
Pick 5
5-6-1-2/9-5
5-6-1-2/9-5
$2,193
Pick 6
1-5-6-1-2/9-5
1-5-6-1-2/9-5
$326
Pick 6
1-5-6-1-2/9-5
1-5-6-1-2/9-5
$60,117
Superfecta
5-1-4-9
5-1-4-9
$6
