Older sprinters are set to race seven-eighths of a mile in Saturday’s $250,000, Grade 2 John A. Nerud Stakes at Belmont Park, one of two graded stakes taking place at the New York oval to kick off July.
Inaugurated in 2008 as the James Marvin Stakes, the Nerud has gone through a couple of name changes in the last decade, most recently shifting in 2019 to honor John Andrew Nerud, trainer of the legendary 1968 Horse of the Year Dr. Fager.
Many talented horses have won the Nerud in recent years, including Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Life Is Good (2022) and Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up Private Zone (2015). So far, none of the 2023 Nerud entrants has won at the Grade 1 level, but that could change as the season goes on. The seven-horse field contains several talented names with upside for further success.
Chief among them is #1 Candy Man Rocket, who has won five of his seven sprint starts. Back in 2021, he looked like a possible Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve contender after stretching his speed to win the 1 1/16-mile, Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes. Two subsequent defeats running long on the Road to the Kentucky Derby dashed those plans, however, and revealed Candy Man Rocket to be a sprinter at heart.
Indeed, Candy Man Rocket has been impressive since cutting back in distance. During the winter at Gulfstream Park, he won an allowance-optional claiming race and the Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes in convincing fashion. Then, after misfiring with a 10th-place finish in the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap at Oaklawn Park, Candy Man Rocket traveled to Belmont Park and won the Grade 3 Runhappy Stakes sprinting three-quarters of a mile.
In the Runhappy Stakes, Candy Man Rocket tracked the early pace before edging away to beat the red-hot #4 Twisted Ride by 1 1/2 lengths. Twisted Ride entered that race off four consecutive victories, including a pair of stakes, while other beaten runners in the Runhappy Stakes included multiple graded stakes winner Drafted, multiple stakes winner Beren, and stakes winner Stage Left. It’s safe to say Candy Man Rocket beat a quality field.
Candy Man Rocket’s Runhappy Stakes performance produced a career-best 101 Brisnet speed rating, one of the best recent numbers posted by any horse in the Nerud field. He’s steadily improving, enters off a sharp series of workouts, and is eligible to run even better while stretching out to seven furlongs. In short, Candy Man Rocket is a compelling choice to take home first prize for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.
Candy Man Rocket shouldn’t be an overly short price in the wagering, so a win bet may provide a satisfactory payoff for bettors playing on a small budget. But those with a bit more capital to spend might consider adding an exacta playing Candy Man Rocket on top of two or three others.
The above-mentioned Twisted Ride is a logical choice to use in the exacta; he ran nicely against Candy Man Rocket in the Runhappy Stakes and previously won the Page McKenney Handicap sprinting seven-eighths of a mile at Parx Racing. Twisted Ride regularly sets, presses, or tracks the pace, and since the Nerud field isn’t exactly stuffed with speed on paper, he figures to work out a favorable trip on or near a modest pace.
We also have to respect the chances of #3 Weyburn, who is cutting back in distance off a third-place finish in a strong renewal of the one-mile, Grade 3 Westchester Stakes at Belmont Park. Weyburn has spent much of his career running one mile or farther, but he also boasts three wins and two seconds from a quintet of starts traveling seven-eighths of a mile. Those efforts include victories in the 2022 and 2023 editions of the Sir Shackleton Stakes at Gulfstream Park, plus a runner-up finish in a Gulfstream allowance-optional claiming race in which he was beaten only by Grade 1 winner White Abarrio.
Even #7 Synthesis has a shot to factor on his best day. While he’s faltered in his recent stakes starts, he ran into trouble when finishing sixth in the Grade 2 True North Stakes last time out, so we can’t judge that defeat too harshly. Two starts back, Synthesis trounced the competition in an allowance-optional claiming race sprinting seven-eighths of a mile at Belmont Park, beating a quality field (including the multiple Grade 1-placed Following Sea) by 3 3/4 lengths with a 101 Brisnet rating.
Let’s used Twisted Ride, Weyburn, and Synthesis in equal strength for our exacta play:
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #1 Candy Man Rocket
What to say at the betting window: Belmont Park, 9th race, $10 to win on #1 Candy Man Rocket
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$15 to win on #1 Candy Man Rocket
What to say at the betting window: Belmont Park, 9th race, $15 to win on #1 Candy Man Rocket
$5 exacta: 1 with 3,4,7 ($15)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont Park, 9th race, $5 exacta 1 with 3,4,7
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Superfecta
2-7-1-6
2-7-1-6
$127
Trifecta
2-7-1
2-7-1
$183
Grand Slam
2/3/5-3/4/7/8-2/6/9/13/14-2
2/3/5-3/4/7/8-2/6/9/13/14-2
$42
Superfecta
2-7-1-6
2-7-1-6
$127
Trifecta
2-7-1
2-7-1
$183
Grand Slam
2/3/5-3/4/7/8-2/6/9/13/14-2
2/3/5-3/4/7/8-2/6/9/13/14-2
$42
