The $150,000 Plate Trial Stakes Sunday at Woodbine is the final prep race at the Toronto track for the 164^th edition of the King’s Plate, the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown to be held Aug. 20. Twelve 3-year-old Canadian-bred Thoroughbreds are entered in the Plate Trial, which is held at 1 1/8 miles on Woodbine’s synthetic Tapeta track.

The Plate Trial has a scheduled post time of 5:23 p.m. ET and will be televised on FanDuel TV. Here’s a betting analysis for this year’s Plate Trail at two different budget levels.

After examining race records and pedigrees, two contenders stand out and will be my “key” horses in constructing exacta tickets. #4 Stanley House has a sprint-oriented pedigree as a son of Army Mule and a relative on his dam’s side to Lady Tak and Volatile, but he’s already won twice this year going 1 1/16 miles on Woodbine’s Tapeta and on May 6 he finished a clear second in a 1 1/8-mile race on this track to 4-year-old Tyson, who subsequently finished third in a Grade 2 stakes at Woodbine and then impressively won the Grade 3 Dominion Day Stakes July 1. Stanley House has a pace-pressing running style and I envision him being forwardly placed along with #3 Paramount Prince and #8 Forest Buzz, both of whom have speed but have not raced beyond seven furlongs. Jockey Luis Contreras should have Stanley House in a perfect spot to get the jump on the closers Sunday afternoon and hopefully open up in early stretch.

Philip My Dear winning Cup & Saucer Stakes. (Woodbine/Michael Burns)

Even if he does, in most Woodbine races there is usually at least one horse – and sometimes a lot more – making up significant real estate in the stretch, and in the Plate Trial the best candidate to do just that is #9 Philip My Dear. This colt was honored as Canada’s champion 2-year-old male of 2022 at the Sovereign Awards based on a five-race campaign highlighted by a pair of stakes wins on turf and a close third-place finish in the Coronation Futurity on the synthetic main track last November behind #5 Velocitor and #6 Twin City. Philip My Dear made his 2023 debut June 11 in the seven-furlong Queenston Stakes at Woodbine, got off to a slow start, and finished eighth. I expect an improved performance as he stretches back out to his preferred two turns, and he comes into the race off a series of sharp workouts. This Silent Name colt is out of a dam who set a course record on Woodbine’s turf at 1 ½ miles, so the Plate Trial’s distance should be no problem at all, and leading Woodbine jockey Kazushi Kimura retains the mount.

I’ll key Stanley House and Philip My Dear atop a $1 exacta in the Plate Trial and add #1 Tiburon (lightly raced but improving, and gets Manny Franco to ride), Paramount Prince, Twin City, and #12 Simcoe (good distance pedigree, bad post) underneath in the second position. At the $20 level, I’ll also try for a bigger payout by adding a $5 exacta box bet using my top two selections. ABR’s Gambling Calculator is the perfect tool to use in constructing exotic wagers.

Betting on a $10 budget:

$1 exacta part wheel, 4 and 9 with 1,3,4,6,9,12 ($10)

Betting on a $20 budget:

$1 exacta part wheel, 4 and 9 with 1,3,4,6,9,12 ($10)

$5 exacta box, 4 and 9 ($10)