The Grade 3, $125,000 Mr. Prospector Stakes Saturday at Gulfstream Park brings together a fairly strong field of nine, led by a couple of millionaires in Long Range Toddy ($1.26 million) and Sibelius ($1.67 million). Long Range Toddy enters the race off a freshening since a win in a handicap race on the Gulfstream main track in August, while Sibelius won the $2 million Dubai Golden Shaheen in March 2023 in Dubai but hasn’t finished in the top three in three subsequent races. Great Navigator appears to fit at the level based on his third-place finish behind eventual Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Cody’s Wish in the Grade 2 Vosburgh Stakes in October. Another horse with good form in top company is Howbeit, who captured the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship, but that was 14 months ago in October 2022, and he is winless in eight races since then. Similarly, Scaramouche won the Grade 2 Gallant Bob Stakes in September of 2022 but has not threatened to win in six races since then. Dreaming of Kona won the Tom Ridge Stakes in June and recently finished third in a handicap on this track last month. Winfromwithin has a win and two runner-up finishes in stakes, all on turf, including the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Stakes in February. Gilmore drops significantly in class off a seventh-place effort in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby in September and finished third at this distance in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun this past June. Hurricane J rounds out the field, coming off a win in lower-level allowance company last month following seven months off.
Main win contenders:
Gilmore takes a big drop in class from Grade 1 stakes to Grade 3 and also cuts back in distance from 1 1/8 miles to seven furlongs. Those two changes suggest he can run a well as he did when third in the Woody Stephens Stakes in June, when he earned a career-best 110 Equibase Speed Figure. Following that, he ran poorly in the Amsterdam Stakes in July but he rebounded to a strong 105 figure effort winning a one-turn mile race at Saratoga in August. Both the 110 and 105 figures are the best earned by any horse in the field on dirt in 2023, except for the 106 figure Scaramouche earned when fifth on a sloppy track in October, which I feel is not representative of how well he can run in this race. Per a Race Lens query, trainer Brendan Walsh has a pretty good record of 11-for-47 (23%) cutting his horses back from a route to a sprint over the last four years. Jockey Jose Ortiz rode Gilmore just once previously, when rallying him from seven lengths back to finish second by 1 ¼ lengths in the Bay Shore Stakes in April at the distance of the Mr. Prospector. So, in summary, having run the fastest on dirt of any horse in the field, with Walsh’s excellent route-to-sprint statistics, and with Jose Ortiz getting back on, Gilmore appears very capable of winning this race.
Long Range Toddy won back-to-back stakes races as a 2-year-old in 2018, starting with the Clever Trevor Stakes at the distance of the Mr. Prospector. He got on the Derby trail in a big way in April 2019 with a win in the $750,000 Rebel Stakes but ran poorly in both the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve thereafter. The winless stretch extended to 29 races, but Long Range Toddy ran very well in a couple of those starts, particularly when beaten a neck in the Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes in the fall of 2022 with a 102 Equibase Speed Figure. Following four poor efforts, Long Range Toddy was given three months off and transferred to the barn of his current trainer, Victor Barboza Jr. The change in scenery appears to have really paid off, with Long Range Toddy running two winning races in a row, the most recent in August earning him a 104 speed figure. The first of the two wins came at seven furlongs and off a layoff, so returning from a layoff at the same distance and with jockey Emisael Jaramillo aboard, the same as for his last two wins, Long Range Toddy must be considered a strong contender in this year’s Mr. Prospector Stakes.
Great Navigator has really improved in the fall of his 3-year-old campaign, first with a 10-length win in the Charles Hesse III Handicap in September around two turns with a 100 speed figure, then upon cutting back to this seven-furlong trip in the Vosburgh Stakes with a career-best 104 figure. The Vosburgh has turned out to be a very productive race, with winner Cody’s Wish returning to win the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in his next race and with the second-, fourth-, and fifth-place finishers finishing in-the-money in stakes races in their subsequent starts. Getting the ground-saving rail for the Mr. Prospector Stakes, Great Navigator is very likely to be in a great off-the-pace position in the early stages, and with any additional improvement off his last two races can be expected to run good enough to win.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Dreaming of Kona (97), Howbeit (105), Hurricane J (86), Scaramouche (106), Sibelius (104), and Winfromwithin (107).
Win Contenders, in preference order:
Gilmore
Long Range Toddy
Great Navigator
Superfecta
9-7-6-8
9-7-6-8
$23
Super High Five
9-7-6-8-1
9-7-6-8-1
$1,464
Superfecta
9-7-6-8
9-7-6-8
$23
Super High Five
9-7-6-8-1
9-7-6-8-1
$1,464
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