Using History to Handicap the 2022 Louisiana Derby

Gambling
Risen Star Stakes winner Girvin followed with a win as the favorite in the Louisiana Derby, above, in 2017 at Fair Grounds. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Get ready! The Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve heats up in a big way with Saturday’s running of the $1 million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. The 1 3/16-mile, Grade 2 race awards 170 Kentucky Derby qualification points to the top four finishers on a 100-40-20-10 basis, which essentially guarantees both the winner and the runner-up a spot in the 2022 Kentucky Derby starting gate.

The Louisiana Derby can be a tricky race to analyze, but fortunately, history can help us with our handicapping. Studying the historical results of graded stakes can reveal trends and tendencies common among past winners, which in turn gives us clues to identify future winners.

With this in mind, we’ve dug through the last decade of the Louisiana Derby and uncovered five historical trends to aid our handicapping:

Tactical speed is an asset

It pays to show speed in the Louisiana Derby. Eight of the last 10 winners were racing in the top four after the opening half-mile, including three winners (Hot Rod Charlie, Wells Bayou, and Vicar’s in Trouble) who were in front at that point in the race.

In contrast, the last decade has seen only two Louisiana Derby winners (International Star and Revolutionary) rally from the back half of the field after the opening half-mile. Unsurprisingly, one of those victories came in 2013, which featured the fastest half-mile pace fraction of the last decade.

Year

Winner

Position after first 1/2-mile

1/2-mile &

3/4-mile times

2021

Hot Rod Charlie

1st by 0.5 lengths (8 starters)

47.04, 1:11.25 (fast)

2020

Wells Bayou

1st by 1.5 lengths (14 starters)

48.00, 1:12.42 (fast)

2019

By My Standards

4th by 3.5 lengths (11 starters)

47.68, 1:11.54 (fast)

2018

Noble Indy

2nd by 1 length (10 starters)

46.61, 1:11.47 (fast)

2017

Girvin

4th by 6.5 lengths (9 starters)

47.00, 1:11.15 (fast)

2016

Gun Runner

3rd by 2 lengths (10 starters)

48.24, 1:12.94 (fast)

2015

International Star

7th by 7 lengths (9 starters)

48.59, 1:13.27 (fast)

2014

Vicar’s in Trouble

1st by 0.5 lengths (10 starters)

47.86, 1:12.14 (fast)

2013

Revolutionary

12th by 12.25 lengths (14 starters)

46.34, 1:11.84 (fast)

2012

Hero of Order

2nd by 1.5 lengths (13 starters)

47.27, 1:11.55 (fast)

Mix favorites and longshots

Generally speaking, the Louisiana Derby tends to be a predictable race. Five of the last ten winners started as the betting favorite, while another three winners started at less than 4-1. You definitely want to include the favorite in the superfecta, because the top betting choice has finished on the board in eight of the last 10 years.

But from time to time, strange things happen in the Louisiana Derby. Hero of Order famously sprung a 109.40-1 upset in 2012. By My Standards landed in the 2019 winner’s circle at 22.50-1. Tom’s Ready finished second at 30.50-1 in 2016, Mylute gained the runner-up spot at 19-1 in 2013, and Ny Traffic battled to second place at 26.70-1 in 2020.

Our advice? Mix the favorites with longshots you like at big prices. You might just identify an overlooked winner or runner-up, triggering lucrative payoffs.

Bet proven graded stakes horses

The Louisiana Derby doesn’t play kindly toward up-and-comers without stakes experience. Five of the last 10 Louisiana Derby winners (Girvin, Gun Runner, International Star, Vicar’s in Trouble, and Revolutionary) had previously won a graded stakes, while another four (Hot Rod Charlie, Wells Bayou, Noble Indy, and Hero of Order) had cracked the top four in a graded stakes.

During the same timeframe, only one horse without graded stakes experience — the maiden winner By My Standards — has managed to claim top honors in the Louisiana Derby. It’s always tempting to think outside the box and support untested maiden and allowance types with the potential to develop into stars, but recent history suggests doing so in the Louisiana Derby isn’t a winning strategy.

Watch out for Todd Pletcher

Trainer Todd Pletcher doesn’t start horses at Fair Grounds very often, but he’s certainly been successful in the Louisiana Derby. Pletcher has won the race four times since 2007, and along the way he’s also saddled a quartet of second-place finishers. They haven’t all been short prices either; Mission Impazible won at 7.10-1 in 2010, and Stanford finished second by a neck at 7-1 in 2015.

Local runners tend to prevail

Epicenter winning Risen Star. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Generally speaking, horses with experience at Fair Grounds have an advantage in the Louisiana Derby. Six of the last 10 winners previously contested the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, including three horses (Girvin, Gun Runner, and International Star) who won both races. Another Louisiana Derby winner, By My Standards, exited a maiden victory at Fair Grounds.

On the other hand, the last two Louisiana Derby winners (Hot Rod Charlie and Wells Bayou) won the Louisiana Derby while racing at Fair Grounds for the first time, a feat also achieved by Revolutionary (2013). All three had previously won or placed against graded stakes competition, so they came to the Louisiana Derby with lofty credentials.

Conclusions

Nine horses have been entered in the 2022 Louisiana Derby, and while none is a perfect match for the historical profile we’ve outlined, a couple come close.

The expected favorite is #6 Epicenter, and his credentials are imposing. The Steve Asmussen trainee led from start to finish in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford at Fair Grounds last month, beating a tough field by 2 3/4 lengths. A short-priced Risen Star winner with tactical speed is bound to be tough in the Louisiana Derby, stamping Epicenter as the horse to beat.

#3 Call Me Midnight and #9 Rattle N Roll are other logical threats. Call Me Midnight capitalized on a favorable pace setup to rally and beat Epicenter by a head in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds back in January. Meanwhile, Rattle N Roll won the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall and is eligible to improve in his second race of the season. But both Call Me Midnight and Rattle N Roll are deep closers, and that hasn’t been the most successful strategy in the Louisiana Derby.

One longshot worth considering is #7 Pioneer of Medina. True, he couldn’t quite keep pace with Epicenter when finishing fourth in the Risen Star. But Pioneer of Medina has tactical speed and is trained by Pletcher, so history suggests it’s unwise to dismiss Pioneer of Medina from consideration. If he steps forward in his second start against graded stakes competition, Pioneer of Medina can crack the top four at a solid price.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the Louisiana Derby!

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