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Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016 but was in the red for 2017. How will he do in 2018? To find out and to play along, come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.

Saturday, March 24

Fair Grounds, Race 10, $400,000 Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks, 5:41 p.m. ET  

#9 Chocolate Martini (10-1): Can’t say enough about how gutsy this little filly was in her last race when she rallied into a soft and uncontested early pace, got jostled around between horses and still found a way to prevail. The horse she beat came back to win next out by four lengths against a tougher field too. #1 Classy Act figures to get to the lead in this spot and may have it all to herself early on. She was caught late in her last race by the highly-regarded Monomoy Girl. I think she’ll have to dig deep to find the extra sixteenth of a mile here — especially if she does end up getting tested earlier. Speaking of tests, Chocolate Martini will be trying tougher company here for the first time, but a logical step forward puts her in the thick of this one, at a nice price.

$10 Budget
$2 win, place, and show on #9 Chocolate Martini ($6)
$2 exacta box 1,9 ($4)

$25 Budget
$4 win, place, and show on #9 Chocolate Martini ($12)
$2 exacta box 1,9 ($4)
$.50 trifecta 1,9 with 1,8,9 with 1,2,4,5,8,9 ($8)

$50 Budget
$5 win, place, and show on #9 Chocolate Martini ($15)
$2 exacta box 1,9 ($4)
$1 exacta 4,8 with 1,4,8,9 ($6)
$1 trifecta 1,9 with 1,4,8,9 with 1,2,4,5,8,9 ($24)

Fair Grounds, Race 11, $1,000,000 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, 6:21 p.m. ET

#5 Retirement Fund (12-1): It’s been a bumpy go of it for us here over the past few weeks with some of these Derby preps. We’ve come close with a few prices and then missed with the big favorite last week at Oaklawn. In this spot, we’re going to go back to another longshot who will likely be overlooked coming off of a poor-looking performance last out in the Southwest Stakes. I should say that Retirement Fund’s effort looks poorer on paper than it actually was. In his first two career starts — both wins over this dirt strip at the Fair Grounds — Retirement Fund had been able to get to the lead and then pulled away late.

At Oaklawn, he couldn’t catch the early speed from his wide draw, lost ground and eventually got shuffled back some, while clearly not enjoying the muddy surface that day. While there does appear a decent amount of early pace in this race, I’m seeing a lot of horses who’ve won on the front end but not because they necessarily wanted to be there but rather because they inherited soft early paces. There’s a solid chance here that the pace won’t be nearly as hotly contested as a quick glance might indicate. If Retirement Fund can get to the lead and settle, he might just be pretty tough to catch.

$10 Budget
$2 win, place, and show on #5 Retirement Fund ($6)
$1 exacta 5,10 with 5,9,10 ($4)

$25 Budget
$4 win, place, and show on #5 Retirement Fund ($12)
$1 exacta box 5,6,9,10 ($12)

$50 Budget
$8 win, place, and show on #5 Retirement Fund ($24)
$1 exacta box 5,6,9,10 ($12)
$.50 trifecta 5,7,9 with 5,7,9,10 with 1,2,5,6,7,9,10 ($22.50)

2018 ROI: -$403.05