A group of talented 3-year-olds will take another step on the road to the Kentucky Derby by competing in Saturday’s $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Contested four weeks after the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, the Fountain of Youth serves as a final stepping stone to Gulfstream’s definitive Kentucky Derby prep, the Florida Derby.

Given that link between Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth, it would seem natural for the Holy Bull to produce a high number of Fountain of Youth winners. But that’s not the case.

Looking back at the last 10 winners of the Fountain of Youth, finding a horse that last raced at Gulfstream Park is indeed the best way to find a winner. Yet the Holy Bull is not the treasure trove of winners. While nine of the last 10 Fountain of Youth winners raced at Gulfstream Park in their previous start, only two of them ran in the Holy Bull.

One of them was Mohaymen, who won both the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth last year. The other was Scat Daddy, who was third in the 2006 Holy Bull and then won the Fountain of Youth.

What propelled more horses to the winner’s circle were allowance races at Gulfstream Park. Six Fountain of Youth winners since 2006 came out of an allowance race at Gulfstream Park, with five of them winning that race (Itsaknockout in 2015, Orb in 2013, Soldat in 2011, Eskendereya in 2010 and Cool Coal Man in 2008) and one of them finishing second (Quality Road in 2009).

The other horse who used a Gulfstream Park race as a springboard to victory in the Fountain of Youth was Wildcat Red who won the Hutcheson and then triumphed in the Fountain of Youth.

The only Fountain of Youth winner since 2007 who did not race at Gulfstream Park was Union Rags, who made his first start since finishing second in the previous year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs.

One other point that arises from looking over the last 10 winners of the Fountain of Youth is that almost all of them are coming off a sharp race. Nine out of 10 of them finished no worse than second in their previous start, and six of them were exiting victories.

So when you handicap Saturday’s Fountain of Youth, recent history says to look first for horse coming off a strong effort at Gulfstream Park, and if you can find an allowance winner at Gulfstream Park, you just might be on the road to picking a winner.