Making Money Playing the Favorites in the San Felipe

March 9th, 2017 by J. Keeler Johnson

Handicapping at Santa Anita (Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

The $400,000 San Felipe Stakes on March 11 at Santa Anita Park looks like the kind of race where the top two or three betting choices from the seven-horse field should dominate, but the order in which they might finish is far from clear-cut.

The favorite will likely be #4 Mastery, an unbeaten and untested colt trained by Bob Baffert, who has won the San Felipe five times in the past with horses like Dortmund, Pioneerof the Nile, and Point Given. As a 2-year-old, Mastery went three-for-three with easy wins in the Bob Hope Stakes and Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity, although it’s worth noting that he wasn’t facing the stiffest competition and could find his rivals in the San Felipe to be considerably tougher. He’s also a bit slower than his main rivals in terms of Beyer and BRIS speed figures.

Mastery (Zoe Metz Photography)

On the other hand, Mastery has looked excellent during his morning workouts, and the fact that he has been training to settle behind workmates and close ground in the homestretch could be useful since the San Felipe Stakes appears to be filled with front-running speed.

Another major contender is #5 Gormley, who won the Sham Stakes in January after a long stretch battle with the highly-regarded American Anthem. While there are questions about Gormley’s ability to settle off the lead – he finished seventh in the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after getting beaten to the lead by several horses – Gormley appears to have undergone a transformation since that race, training with much more focus, professionalism, and speed. In addition, Gormley didn’t seem to mind rating a length behind American Anthem in the early stages of the Sham, so I’m optimistic that he’s ready for a big run regardless of what kind of trip he receives.

The wildcard in the San Felipe is the speedy #6 Iliad, who enters off an impressive win in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita going seven-eighths of a mile. Iliad has abundant speed and might very well secure the early lead in the San Felipe, a good position to be in considering that the last three San Felipe winners all prevailed in gate-to-wire fashion. But Iliad has never run in a two-turn race, and while his pedigree suggests that the distance shouldn’t be a problem, we won’t know for sure until he tries.

So with three solid contenders in a seemingly evenly-matched race, what’s the best way to approach it from a wagering perspective? Win, place, and show bets are unlikely to offer much of a reward, and the exacta shouldn’t be much better. Therefore, we’ll try to pick the top three finishers in order and play the trifecta with Mastery and Gormley on top.

Wagering Strategy on a $12 Budget

$4 trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with 6 ($8)

$2 trifecta: 4,5 with 6 with 4,5 ($4)

Wagering Strategy on a $25 Budget

$7 trifecta: 4 with 5 with 6 ($7)

$6 trifecta: 5 with 4 with 6 ($6)

$4 trifecta: 4,5 with 6 with 4,5 ($8)

$1 superfecta: 5 with 4 with 6 with ALL ($4)

Good luck, and enjoy the race!