Live Longshot Balandeen Offers Value in Sunland Derby

March 24th, 2017 by J. Keeler Johnson

Racing at Sunland Park, host of Sunday's Sunland Derby. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The road to the Kentucky Derby continues on March 26 with the $800,000 Sunland Derby at Sunland Park, a 1 1/8-mile race in New Mexico that offers 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner.

Given that Sunland Park has a tendency to favor front-runners and speed horses, it’s not surprising that trainer Bob Baffert—armed with a vast stable of fast horses—has won three of the last four editions of this race (counting a similar race that was run in place of the Sunland Derby in 2016.) Furthermore, Baffert has won seven of the last 11 races he has contested at Sunland Park, and Baffert could continue his dominance on Sunday with #3 Bronze Age, who figures to start as the Sunland Derby favorite while facing 11 rivals.

The son of Mineshaft showed tremendous early speed in his first two races (both sprints) at Santa Anita; he twice ran the opening quarter-mile in :21 3/5 and posted half-mile fractions of :43 3/5 and :44 2/5. While he tired to finish off the board each time, he showed huge improvement in his third start when stretched out to a mile, which enabled him to set more modest fractions of :23 4/5 and :47 1/5. With the benefit of a more relaxed lead, Bronze Age won decisively by 1 ½ lengths over stablemates West Coast and Glacier, both of which came back to win their next starts.

The only concern with Bronze Age is that he will be running an eighth of a mile farther on Saturday while facing a deep field of challengers. He could also face more pace pressure than he did in his maiden win, so I don’t think Bronze Age is unbeatable in this spot.

With #7 Kimbear expected to scratch, I think the horse with the best chance to pull off an upset is #10 Balandeen. Trained by Chris Hartman, Balandeen showed significant potential as a 2-year-old, winning a couple of races at Del Mar and Churchill Downs before finishing second behind Kentucky Derby favorite McCraken in the one-mile Street Sense Stakes. Since then, Balandeen’s form has been muddied a bit by a pair of efforts that I believe are better than they appear at first glance. The first was a fifth-place finish in the Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, conducted on a tricky track with a smaller circumference than most U.S. racetracks — many horses simply don’t handle the conditions.

The second race was the March 4 Gazebo Stakes at Oaklawn Park, which marked Balandeen’s first race in 3 ½ months. While he could only finish third, the race was clearly a prep for bigger races down the road, and Balandeen even received special permission to continue running past the finish line, essentially turning the race into a “paid workout.”

Now, Balandeen is making his second start off the layoff, and his pedigree suggests that he’ll have no trouble with the distance of the Sunland Derby — his sire (father) is Grade 1 Preakness Stakes winner Bernardini and his dam (mother) is Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes winner Mamma Kimbo. I think he’s sitting on a big effort, and at 10-1 on the morning line, I think he’s worth playing on top.

Another sizeable longshot that could be worth a look is #4 Oxford Lane. Never out of the trifecta in four starts, Oxford Lane has never faced proven winners but did compete against older horses in a pair of one-mile maiden races at Oaklawn Park, finishing second in the first behind the talented Big Red Rocket before winning the second by a neck. For those efforts, he earned Beyer speed figures of 85 and 80, which stack up very well against his Sunland Derby rivals. He’s 15-1 on the morning line, yet I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes off at even higher, and as a colt with a respectable amount of tactical speed, he should be able to put himself in the position to finish in the top three if he’s good enough.

For a few small “saver” exactas, we’ll also consider the chances of #2 Hedge Fund, who ships in off a maiden win at Gulfstream for trainer Todd Pletcher, and #11 Total Tap, recent winner of an allowance race at Fair Grounds.

Here’s how I would play the Sunland Derby:

Wagering Strategy on a $16 Budget

$3 to win-place on #10 Balandeen ($6)

$2 exacta: 3,10 with 3,10 ($8)

$1 exacta: 3,10 with 4 ($2)

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$6 to win-place on #10 Balandeen ($12)

$3 exacta: 3,10 with 2,3,10 ($12)

$2 exacta: 3,10 with 4 ($4)

$1 exacta: 3,10 with 11 ($2)

Good luck, and enjoy the race!