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Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016. Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.

Saturday, Nov. 18

Churchill Downs, Race 9, 4:54 p.m. ET

#4 It’s the Truth: We’ve been utilizing STATS Race Lens all year to identify key angles, and this is a horse who checks off a lot of boxes on STATS. She’ll be making her first start after being claimed for $40,000 by trainer Brad Cox in her previous race going 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland. She’ll cut back to a 6 ½-furlong sprint here, and Cox shows a stunning 37% win rate with horses making their first start for him after being claimed plus a 41% winning percentage going from a distance race to a sprint. On paper, this filly’s form looks a bit spotty, but she’s had a few excuses and she’s only a few races removed from stakes competition. Give her some serious consideration at what should be pretty decent odds.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$5 win and place on #4 It’s the Truth ($10)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$5 win on #4 It’s the Truth ($5)

$1 exacta box 4,5,6 ($6)

$1 exacta key box 4 over all ($14)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$12 win and place on #4 It’s the Truth ($24)

$2 exacta box 4,5,6 ($12)

$1 exacta key box 4 over all ($14)

Churchill Downs, Race 10, $100,000 Cardinal Handicap, 5:24 p.m. ET

#11 Res Ipsa: She has run well at Churchill and, after a bit of inconsistency earlier in her career, Res Ipsa looks like a filly who has finally come into her own. She’s only raced once against stakes competition — it didn’t go well, but the race was at Indiana Downs and it’s possible she just didn’t like the track there that day. Everything else around that race has been an honest effort, including a pair of allowance victories on both good and firm turf courses. The horse who finished second to her last time out, came back to win an allowance race in her next start. Interestingly, Res Ipsa won easily in her debut with Julien Leparoux aboard and then he only rode her once in her ensuing 11 starts. Her return to form has coincided with a reunion with Leparoux, and this looks like a soft enough stakes spot for this filly to break through at this level.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$2 win, place and show on #11 Res Ipsa ($6)

$1 exacta 9,11 with 4,9,11 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$4 win, place and show on #11 Res Ipsa ($12)

$1 exacta box 4,9,11,12 ($12)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$5 win, place and show on #11 Res Ipsa ($15)

$1 exacta key box 11 over all ($22)

$1 exacta box 4,9,11,12 ($12)

2017 ROI: -$673