Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Sept. 3 - 4

Gambling

Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!

Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you, on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.

I have a wanted sign in Las Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I choose to punt.

That’s where Bob Nastanovich comes in. He craves the action and loves a good underdog as well as a cheap claiming horse with a big heart.

Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!

**Wednesday Night lines from scoresandodds.com**

College Pigskins – by Bob Nastanovich

In a fascinating opening week featuring even more heavyweight matchups than usual, College Football lovers will be glued to their TV sets for an over 100 hour marathon of gridiron madness. I'll aim to solve some of the puzzles and pick winners against the spread.

Week 1

(9) Tennessee -21 vs. Appalachian St. (Thursday, 7:30pm EST, SEC)

Neyland Stadium (WikiMedia Commons/KamrynsMom)
After a 2015 campaign filled with painful near misses and late game heart breaks, the Vols are poised to make their biggest impact since 2008. In anticipation, their faithful have bought all of the available season tickets for the first time since 2001. Knoxville's Neyland Stadium will be a mad house. 

Hearing how competitive Appalachian State is and how they pose a legitimate threat to the Volunteer path to glory, Tennessee will not take the Sun Belt's recent Division 1 transplants lightly. Plenty here to envision a relentless Volunteer assault.


(5) LSU -10 vs. Wisconsin (Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Saturday, 3:30pm EST, ABC)

This one is straightforward. LSU hired Wisconsin's excellent defensive coordinator Dave Aranda during the offseason. He has made an excellent defense even better and ought to know a thing or two about the Badgers.

After a barbaric summer in Baton Rouge, the Tigers will be particularly fierce against a sub-par Wisconsin team. LSU's marquee players Leonard Fournette (RB) and Kendall Beckwith (LB) will strut their stuff on one of the NFL's biggest stages. 

(18) Georgia -3 vs. (22) North Carolina (Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Saturday, 5:30 EST, ESPN)

Perhaps the most competitive matchup of Week 1 is this game. Both teams are very good. However, aside from the game being played just down the road from their Athens base, Georgia has an advantage.

Former Bulldog Kirby Smart, who did a grand job as Alabama's defensive coordinator, has taken the head coaching reins from the beleaguered Mark Richt. Georgia, expected to vie with Tennessee for the SEC East title, will get the Smart era off to a flying start.


Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek

At the start of any NFL season, hope springs eternal.

In order to succeed, teams need talent, high-level coaching and schemes, health and good fortune.

With kickoff a week away, one of my favorite pastimes is to dive into some season win total over/unders.

Season Win Totals (in order of preference)

Oakland Raiders OVER 8 ½

On paper, the Raiders should be one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl (currently 60/1) but since they haven’t even made the playoffs in 13 years, that’s hard for short-sighted NFL fans to fathom. They seriously have one of the best 52-man rosters in football, with young playmakers with upside on both sides of the ball and a no-nonsense head coach who can teach them how to win.

San Francisco 49ers UNDER 5 ½

If Chip Kelly thought last year in Philadelphia was a nightmare, wait until he lives out this season with one of the most dysfunctional and least talented teams in the NFL. Their QB situation is a mess and they have very few capable receivers to throw to. RB Carlos Hyde isn’t bad, but how often will he run down double-digits scores every game. The once vaunted defense isn’t even good enough to keep them in games anymore.

Russel Wilson (Wikimedia Commons/Mike Morris)
Seattle Seahawks OVER 10 ½

A disappointment last year, the Seahawks are on edge to return to elite status. Their only weakness is the offensive line, and the presence of a highly mobile QB in Russell Wilson negates some of those deficiencies. The receivers are underrated and even without Marshawn Lynch, the running game should remain highly productive. The defense will be as good as it’s ever been and their schedule doesn’t present too many high-powered offenses to try to contain.

Chicago Bears UNDER 7 ½

If everything went right, the Bears could finish 8-8. They are so thin at almost every position. The offensive line is in shambles, the running game is highly suspect, and although the defense is better, it looks like they’ll lose the time of possession battle most days.

Buffalo Bills OVER 8

QB Tyrod Taylor has upside and if RB LeSean McCoy and WR Sammy Watkins can stay healthy, the offense could be borderline dynamic. On defense, the secondary is phenomenal and the front-seven has the potential to be really good. The Bills haven’t made the playoffs in 16 years. That changes. 

Baltimore Ravens UNDER 8 ½

The Ravens have more questions than they have answers. The ancient Steve Smith Sr. leads a core of very iffy wide receivers and Justin Forsett’s RB arrow is pointing downward. After signing his massive contract, QB Joe Flacco has proven to be very average and although decent, the overall defense is a shell of what they once were.

Ponies – Races of the Week

This week, it’s all about the babies!

Saturday, September 3

Kentucky Downs

The Exacta Systems Juvenile Fillies

Joe’s Pick: #3 Lady Hansen (10-1)

A huge disappointment at 4-5 odds in her career debut over the Ellis Park dirt, this beautiful gray daughter of Hansen bounced back to win her follow-up start on grass, but not without some major anxiety. For the second time in a row, she was completely left at the start, but on this occasion she got her feet underneath her and absolutely flew home to score.

Mike Maker is one of the nation’s best horsemen, and hopefully he’s worked out those gate kinks. I lean towards off the pace types in Kentucky Downs sprint races and coming in from Ellis with more high profile New York invaders in the race, this gal should fly under the tote radar.

Del Mar

Del Mar Debutante Bob’s Pick: #4 Champagne Room 
With no filly as dominant as 2015 winner Songbird heading to post, the Debutante is ultra-competitive and the winner will likely emerge as California's leading hope for Santa Anita's 14 Hands Winery Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

American Cleopatra winning her debut. (BENOIT photo)

Champagne Room, a thoroughly professional 2-year-old who won the Grade 2 Sorrento here, has two good Del Mar starts under her belt and the race's seven furlongs should give her ample opportunity to roll past the talented trio drawn to her inside.

American Cleopatra, American Pharoah's full sister whose ability was downplayed by Baffert before her bow resulting in a hefty $16.60 win payout, sheds blinkers and gets Bejarano. Morganite, who beat the selection in her lone race, hails from the first crop of the exciting prospect Gemologist and represents powerful connections too. Miss Southern Miss, a speedy More Than Ready filly, is emerging as Team Desormeaux's newest star.

All of these money takers aid Champagne Room's cause "parimutuelly".

Expect the other Baffert trainee, Noted and Quoted to complete the exacta under a patient Mike Smith ride.

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