Some of the best 3-year-old Thoroughbreds in the country will battle in one of the marquee stakes in the division when they face off in Saturday’s $1 million, Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park. The victor also earns a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Oct. 31 at Keeneland.

The expected field for the 1 1/8-mile race includes Napoleon Solo and Iron Honor, the top-two finishers from the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes; Further Ado, the beaten favorite from the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve; The Puma, winner of the Grade 3 ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby; and Ocelli, the third-place finisher from the Kentucky Derby.

Analyzing the history of the Haskell — the results over the past 20-plus years — reveals half a dozen recurring trends, which can be used to sort through the 2026 Haskell contenders and identify the most likely winner.

Keep the following six trends in mind when handicapping this year’s Haskell:

Some degree of early speed is useful

You don’t want to drop too far off the early pace in the Haskell. History reveals 15 of the last 21 winners (71%) were racing within 2 1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile.

Triple Crown alums have an advantage

Alumni from the Triple Crown — the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes — perform best in the Haskell. Horses who contested one or more legs of the Triple Crown have won 30 of the last 35 editions of the Haskell (86%).

Proven route racers are the ones to bet

Horses who have yet to win a race over a route distance (one mile or farther) are winless in the Haskell since at least 1981, as far back as we have researched.

Bet on established stakes winners

Proven stakes winner Good Magic wins 2018 Haskell as heavy favorite (Eclipse Sportswire)

Forty-six of the last 47 Haskell winners (98%) had previously won a stakes race. The only exception was Paytner in 2012, and he was exiting a runner-up finish in the Belmont Stakes.

Favorites and short-priced runners are tough to beat

The betting favorite is typically formidable in the Haskell. Favorites have won 12 of the last 21 editions (57%), far exceeding the typical win rate for favorites. Furthermore, only three Haskell winners since 1992 have started at odds of 5-1 or higher, and 55 of the last 63 top-three finishers (87%) have started at single-digit odds.

Long-winded stallions sire most winners

Stallions who competed in a Triple Crown race and/or won at the Grade 1 level racing 1 1/16 miles or farther have sired each of the last 17 winners of the Haskell.

Conclusions

Three contenders for the 2026 Haskell Stakes are perfect matches for the historical profile we’ve outlined: Napoleon Solo, Iron Honor, and Further Ado.

Napoleon Solo wins the Preakness Stakes (Eclipse Sportswire)

Napoleon Solo has set or tracked the pace in all five of his starts. He won the Preakness Stakes racing 1 3/16 miles, as well as the one-mile Grade 1 Champagne Stakes. He’ll be a short price in the betting — perhaps the favorite — and his sire, Liam’s Map, won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and 1 1/8-mile Grade 1 Woodward Stakes.

Iron Honor has raced within 2 1/2 lengths of the pace after the opening half-mile in all four of his starts. He finished second in the Preakness, beaten only 1 1/4 lengths by Napoleon Solo. He previously won the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes racing one mile. He’ll surely start at under 5-1 odds, and his sire — Nyquist — won four Grade 1 races over distances from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/4 miles, including the Kentucky Derby.

Further Ado has raced within 2 1/2 lengths of the lead in five of his eight starts. He’s won three graded stakes racing 1 1/16 miles or farther, including the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. He competed in the Kentucky Derby, he’ll be a short price in the Haskell betting, and he’s a son of Gun Runner, who won half a dozen Grade 1 races at 1 1/16 miles or farther.

Separating Napoleon Solo, Iron Honor, and Further Ado isn’t easy. But history hints we should support whichever one starts as the betting favorite, since favorites have nabbed 12 of the last 21 editions of the Haskell. That will very likely be Napoleon Solo or Further Ado, making them the top choices from a historical perspective.

Good luck, and enjoy the race!