Noble Bird Could Turn Tables on Frosted in Whitney

August 4th, 2016 by Ellis Starr

Noble Bird could upset Frosted in the Whitney Stakes on Saturday. (Eclipse Sportswire)

A "Win and You're In" race for the Breeders' Cup Classic in November, the 89th running of the Grade 1, $1.25 million Whitney Stakes at Saratoga Race Course features 14-length Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap winner Frosted, one of three Grade 1 winners in the field of six. Effinex won the Grade 1 Clark Handicap in 2015 and enters the race off a game victory in the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap last month. Noble Bird was well beaten in the Metropolitan but won the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap last year as well as the Grade 3 Pimlico Special before the Met.

In a short field, having early speed or tactical speed can be a great advantage. Therefore it is possible Noble Bird may be able to duplicate his effort in the Pimlico Special in May when leading from start to finish, eventually finishing an eased up 11 lengths clear of the runner-up. That effort earned a strong 114 Equibase Speed Figure under Julien Leparoux, who rides once again. Although well beaten behind Frosted in the Metropolitan Handicap after the Pimlico Special, Noble Bird may be all set for his best race with a pair of excellent workouts at Saratoga. Having won five of 14 races on dirt including the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap last year at the distance of the Whitney with a 118 figure, Noble Bird has all the credentials to post the mild upset in this race.

Effinex enters the Whitney off a thrilling victory in the Suburban Handicap last month, in which he battled head-and-head for the last quarter mile and prevailed. Two races prior to that, Effinex won the Oaklawn Handicap at the distance of the Whitney and last fall he won the Clark Handicap at the distance as well. His best efforts in terms of figures came in the spring and summer of 2015, in which he earned 127 and 122 figures winning the Suburban Handicap and Excelsior Stakes. With Mike Smith in the saddle for his last three wins and aboard again in the Whitney, Effinex could prove tough to go by once again.

Frosted ran the best race of his career in the Metropolitan Handicap on Belmont Stakes day in June, drawing off to a 14 length win in geared down fashion and earning a career-best 122 figure. The Met being a one-turn mile race, the main question surrounding Frosted is whether he can repeat his remarkable effort in this two-turn race. Considering in 2015 Frosted won the Pennsylvania Derby at the distance of the Whitney with a 108 figure as well as the Wood Memorial Stakes last April with a 112 figure, that may not be an issue and so he could be formidable once again.

The rest of the Whitney field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Comfort (116), El Kabeir (107) and Upstart (107).

Top contenders:
Noble Bird
Effinex
Frosted