The Stephen Foster Stakes has been one of the most prestigious races for older dirt horses since the turn of the century, and this year’s renewal Saturday at Churchill Downs shapes up as one of the best ever. Late last month, track officials announced that the Stephen Foster purse would be doubled from $1 million to $2 million, and that increase has helped to attract a field that includes four Grade 1 winners, led by reigning Horse of the Year Sovereignty.

The 1 1/8-mile, Grade 1 Stephen Foster already has cachet as a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic, which will be held Oct. 31 at Keeneland Race Course. Winning the race also boosts a horse’s value as a future stallion, as prior victors include successful sires Awesome Again, Street Cry, Curlin, Blame, and Gun Runner.

Sovereignty, winner of last year’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, and DraftKings Travers Stakes, makes his second start at age 4 after finishing second in April to White Abarrio in the Oaklawn Handicap, and he’ll face that veteran $8.4 million earner again. Those two, plus recent Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline winner Magnitude and 2025 Pennsylvania Derby winner Baeza top a seven-horse field loaded with class, making Saturday’s Foster a crucial early test of potential Breeders’ Cup Classic contenders.

The 45^th Stephen Foster Stakes anchors a Saturday racecard under the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs that includes six other stakes races. It will be broadcast live on NBCSN and FanDuel TV and streamed on Peacock, with a scheduled post time of 6:03 p.m. ET.

Read on for information about each of the Stephen Foster contenders plus some betting analysis:

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1. Willy D’s

Jockey: Luis Saez

Trainer: Mike Maker

Owner: Paradise Farms Corp.

Career record: 27 starts – 7 wins – 7 seconds – 2 thirds

Career earnings: $874,008

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 113

Age: 5

Pedigree: Lookin At Lucky – Boston Mine, by Mineshaft

Color: Bay

Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace

Analysis: Willy D’s comes into the Stephen Foster on a two-race winning streak with hard-fought victories in the 1 1/8-mile Twinspires.com Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes on Turfway Park’s all-weather track and then Oaklawn Park’s Lake Ouachita Stakes held at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. He pressed the early pace in the Kentucky Cup Classic and battled in the stretch to win buy three-quarters of a length, and then set a pressured pace in the Lake Ouachita and had enough left to win by a neck. Since March 2025 when Mike Maker claimed him and took over training duties, Willy D’s has made 11 starts and finished worse than third only twice while racing at seven different tracks. This hard-trying gelding would be facing the toughest group in his career by far Saturday evening at Churchill, but he is cross-entered in the Texas Turf Classic Stakes the same day at Lone Star Park. If he competes in the Stephen Foster, Willy D’s should be a pace factor along with win candidate Magnitude, Forged Steel, and possibly Navajo Warrior. He’s had enough success at 1 1/8 miles (two wins and three seconds in six starts) to hang around for a while if he brings his “A” game.

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2. White Abarrio

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.

Owners: C2 Racing Stable, Gary Barber, and La Milagrosa Stable

Career record: 26 starts – 11 wins – 3 seconds – 3 thirds

Career earnings: $8,445,170

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 122

Age: 7

Pedigree: Race Day – Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief

Color: Gray or roan

Running style: Stalker

Analysis: White Abarrio has cycled back to near-career-best form at age 7 through two starts this year and will be tough to handle in the Stephen Foster if he maintains his current level. He started 2026 with a game runner-up finish to stablemate Skippylongstocking in the 1 1/8-mile Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes at Gulfstream Park, where he led into the stretch before tiring slightly. He then shook off the rust completely in the Oaklawn Handicap April 18, held at the same distance. In that race, White Abarrio and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. raced in a stalking position behind Sovereignty and Journalism, who dueled for the lead through Oaklawn’s far turn, and then angled out and finished powerfully to defeat Sovereignty by two lengths. White Abarrio will get a much-anticipated rematch with last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Saturday, and will also have to tussle with top-class Magnitude and Baeza. He should get assistance from fast stablemate Forged Steel, who will help to ensure a projected fast pace for him to close into. This popular gray horse, who won the 2023 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic at age 4, will close out his racing career at the end of 2026 and has a solid chance to add a Stephen Foster win to his résumé.  

Susie Raisher/NYRA

3. Sovereignty

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Trainer: Bill Mott

Owner: Godolphin

Career record: 10 starts – 6 wins – 3 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $6,079,050

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 116

Age: 4

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini

Color: Bay

Running style: Stalker

Analysis: Has the reigning Horse of the Year peaked? Sovereignty was favored in his 2026 debut back in April’s Oaklawn Handicap at 9-10 post-time odds despite the presence of his 2025 Triple Crown rival Journalism and White Abarrio. In an unexpected development, Sovereignty set the pace in the 1 1/8-mile Oaklawn Handicap with constant pressure from Journalism. He held a short lead into the stretch and put away Journalism with an eighth of a mile remaining, but White Abarrio surged past him to win by two lengths. Based on the Stephen Foster field, Sovereignty should have a much more favorable setup in his second start of the year, as at least three and possibly four starters — including win threat Magnitude — are forwardly placed runners. He should revert to his usual stalking position under regular jockey Junior Alvarado, and if the early pace is fast, expect to see him mount a stretch rally similar to his bid in the Kentucky Derby. As of this writing, there’s a 60% chance of rain Saturday at Churchill Downs, and a wet surface will help his win chances as he’s won both starts on “off” tracks. Sovereignty is obviously not a lock to win such a competitive edition of the Stephen Foster and he might be overbet. It would be surprising to see him finish out of the top three, however.

Ryan Denver/EQUI-PHOTO

4. Baeza

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Trainer: Bill Mott

Owners: C R K Stable and Grandview Equine

Career record: 10 starts – 2 wins – 3 seconds – 3 thirds

Career earnings: $1,717,200

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 114

Age: 4

Pedigree: McKinzie – Puca, by Big Brown

Color: Bay

Running style: Stalker/closer

Analysis: He’s been a “buzz” horse for more than a year now, and Baeza has a golden opportunity to prove he belongs with the best of his era Saturday evening in the Stephen Foster. The McKinzie colt jumped on the national radar during the Triple Crown season with a runner-up finish in the Santa Anita Derby followed up by third-place finishes in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. Later in 2025, Baeza continued to show top-level talent by finishing second to Sovereignty in the Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun and then powering to a 2 ¼-length score over Magnitude in the 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby. After trainer John Shirreffs’ sudden death last winter, Baeza was transferred to Sovereignty’s trainer, Bill Mott, for his 4-year-old season. He hesitated at the start in his 2026 debut in the 1 1/16-mile Alysheba Stakes Presented by U.S. Army May 1 at Churchill Downs and spotted the field more than seven lengths early on before mounting a sustained rally that came up just short, as he finished third by three-quarters of a length behind Corporate Power and Skippylongstocking. For the Stephen Foster, he’ll be reunited with jockey Flavien Prat, who rode Baeza in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. He should get a good pace setup Saturday, and if he can get off to a better start and also improve in his second start of the year Baeza should make his presence felt in the stretch drive, although he’ll need a career-best effort to win.

Coady Media

5. Magnitude

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Career record: 13 starts – 7 wins – 2 seconds – 1 third

Career earnings: $8,544,365

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 111

Age: 4

Pedigree: Not This Time – Rockadelic, by Bernardini

Color: Bay

Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace

Analysis: Sovereignty, White Abarrio, and arguably even Baeza have higher profiles based on their starts in the Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup in years past, but a case can be made that Magnitude is currently the best older horse in training – and he’ll have a chance to confirm that in a star-studded Stephen Foster. He missed the Triple Crown last year at age 3 was handled by both Sovereignty and Baeza in his two return starts last summer (the DraftKings Travers Stakes and the Pennsylvania Derby). Since then, however, Magnitude has been perfect, posting a win over Hit Show in the Clark Stakes Presented by Norton Healthcare going 1 1/8 miles at Churchill Downs to close out his 3-year-old season, and then starting 2026 with an easy score in the 1 1/16-mile Razorback Handicap at Oaklawn Park. His second 2026 start was eye-catching to say the least, as Magnitude traveled halfway around the world to face off against reigning Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Forever Young in the March 28 Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline. He took the lead immediately in the 1 ¼-mile Dubai World Cup under Jose Ortiz and kept Forever Young at bay throughout Meydan Racecourse’s long homestretch, prevailing by a length. Magnitude has had three months to recover from his international trip and has been training steadily at Churchill Downs. He should have company up front early in the Stephen Foster as both Willy D’s and Forged Steel possess ample speed, but this talented colt has also shown the ability to rate just off the pace. A main win candidate.  

BENOIT photo

6. Forged Steel

Jockey: John Velazquez

Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.

Owners: C2 Racing Stable and Mathis Stables

Career record: 18 starts – 5 wins – 3 seconds – 3 thirds

Career earnings: $416,130

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 107

Age: 4

Pedigree: Vekoma – Scorecard, by Tale of the Cat

Color: Gray or roan

Running style: Pacesetter

Analysis: Forged Steel should be a pace factor in the Stephen Foster as he comes into the race off of a victory in the 1 ¼-mile Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes May 25 at Santa Anita Park where he set a pressured pace early and then blew away the field late, scoring by 9 ½ lengths. That was the first stakes win for Forged Steel in his career, although he had been competitive in earlier tries in both 2025 and early 2026. Simply put, the four horses he defeated in the Hollywood Gold Cup are not in the same talent galaxy as the fearsome foursome he’ll face in Saturday’s Stephen Foster. In fact, it’s entirely possible that trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. and co-owner C2 Racing Stable have entered Forged Steel in this race in order to ensure a fast early pace that will set up stablemate White Abarrio for a winning bid in the late stages. Expect this gray colt to do his job early and duel with Magnitude and Willy D’s for the lead. He’ll be ridden by Hall of Famer John Velazquez for the first time, and Velazquez figures to be aggressive in the saddle and take the early initiative.

Eclipse Sportswire

7. Navajo Warrior

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.

Owners: BAG Racing Stables, Miller Racing, Dr. Derek Paul, Mathis Stable, Paul Braverman, and Timothy Pinch

Career record: 17 starts – 9 wins – 2 seconds – 2 thirds

Career earnings: $452,609

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 112

Age: 5

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Crosswinds, by Storm Cat

Color: Dark bay or brown

Running style: Press the pace/stalker

Analysis: Navajo Warrior has reached a career peak in form over the past seven months, winning three of his last four starts and achieving his best speed figures while moving out of the starter allowance level (largely consisting of claiming horses) to stakes company. He made his stakes debut a successful one on May 15, leading from start to finish in the 1 3/16-mile Pimlico Special Stakes at Laurel Park and easily winning by 2 ¾ lengths. As with stablemate Forged Steel, this gelding comes in off of a breakthrough stakes win but defeated a far less accomplished field than the one he’ll compete against Saturday. Navajo Warrior could get a good stalking trip under Tyler Gaffalione behind speed horses Magnitude, Forged Steel, and Willy D’s, but it’s difficult to envision a scenario where he pulls the upset in a world-class edition of the Stephen Foster.