This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2026 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not as strong as they previously were. In the seventh edition of this blog for the 2026 run for the roses, the focus is on what has changed since the previous edition on March 24. This week proved a tough judgment call for the top three slots. The biggest riser was Fukuryu Stakes winner Danon Bourbon from Japan, but I believe Renegade is now the most likely Kentucky Derby winner with the news that unbeaten Paladin is sidelined, so he gets top billing.

HEATING UP

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1. Renegade

At the beginning of last week, Renegade and Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes winner Paladin were 1 and 1A on my Kentucky Derby list. I thought they had separated themselves from the field a bit and Renegade’s four-length romp in the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby March 28 at Oaklawn Park did nothing to dissuade me regarding his chances to win the 2026 Kentucky Derby. He was last of eight through a half-mile in a moderate :47.80 and overpowered seven opponents with a closing quarter-mile in :24.02 and a final eighth in :11.84. Simply put, he was flying late in a 1 1/8-mile dirt race. He improved to a career-best 107 Equibase Speed Figure and boosted his Beyer Speed Figure five points to a new top of 98. With Paladin sidelined through summer at least with a condylar fracture, Renegade looks like the best 3-year-old of the class and he’s peaking at the right time for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Mazakazu Takahashi photo

2. Danon Bourbon

What did I think about Danon Bourbon before last weekend? I’d have said, “I prefer Woodford Reserve.” Slight exaggeration, but you get the drift. His facile 3 ½-length win in the Fukuryu Stakes March 28 at Nakayama boosted his career record to 3-for-3 by a combined margin of 18 ½ lengths, with the victories coming at about 1 1/8 miles, about 1 3/16 miles, and again at about 1 1/8 miles. He looked like a winner from start to finish in the Fukuryu, stalking the pace from third while nicely settled under jockey Atsuya Nishimura before launching his winning bid approaching the stretch. He easily reeled in runner-up Don Erectus and pulled away while striding out impressively. A $450,000 purchase at the 2024 Keeneland September yearling sale, Danon Bourbon is from the first crop of Grade 1 winner Maxfield out of the winning Tapit mare Wild Ridge, who is a half-sister to three stakes winners including Grade 2 winners Cazadero and Dubyuhnell. It’s fair to question the quality of competition, but I’m buying the talent.

Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photo

3. Commandment

This week’s Kentucky Derby Prospect Profile was a comprehensive analysis of Commandment following his nose victory over The Puma in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He utilized a powerful late charge – a final three-eighths of a mile in :36.52 and a final quarter-mile in :24.38 – to complete the last-to-first rally. Prior to the Florida Derby, the bay colt by leading sire Into Mischief outkicked Chief Wallabee by a neck to win the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes Feb. 28, so he’s a proven fighter and a fast finisher for Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Brad Cox. He’s now earned back-to-back triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures and he’s 4-for-5 lifetime with a win on the main track at Churchill Downs. Commandment is a legitimate win contender May 2.

Also Eligible: I thought runner-up The Puma and third-place finisher Chief Wallabee ran very well in defeat in the Florida Derby. In fact, I’m elevating The Puma off a game second in which he was incredibly unlucky to lose a head bob. I thought he needed the experience with only three prior starts and one win, and he should now be better prepared for the Kentucky Derby from a foundation and maturity standpoint. I’ve always really liked Chief Wallabee, but the one knock I have with him (something I’ll pull from friend Pete Denk and his colleague Kerry Thomas’s Thomas Herding reports) is that he seems to buddy up when confronted and looks content to race with the competition rather than being driven to pass them. … Silent Tactic also ran well in a runner-up finish to Renegade in the Arkansas Derby. His final quarter-mile in :24.92 probably would have been good enough to win most races on the Derby trail this winter-spring and he remains a big threat to finish in the top three in the Kentucky Derby. … Wonder Dean delivered a career-best effort to win the United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored by Jumeirah March 28 at Meydan, collaring pacesetter Six Speed in the stretch and then grinding away to a 2 ½-length win. He punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with the win, and a 3-year-old from Japan warrants respect. That said, I did not think this was an especially strong cast for the UAE Derby, and Dubai to Louisville is a daunting path.

COOLING DOWN

Susie Raisher/NYRA

1. Nearly

Nearly was near the top of most lists of top Kentucky Derby contenders entering the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa March 28 at Gulfstream Park coming off a 5 ¾-length runaway victory in the Holy Bull Stakes Jan. 31 in his stakes debut. He raced just behind a leisurely pace and took the lead through three-quarters of a mile in 1:13, but the dark bay or brown colt offered little resistance when challenged in early stretch and faded to fourth. It was not a disastrous performance by any stretch, but it very likely cost Nearly a spot in the field for the Kentucky Derby – he ranks 22^nd with 35 points with three marquee qualifiers this weekend offering points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale. My big concern with Nearly coming out of the Holy Bull was that he wasn’t a fast finisher and that caught up to him in the Florida Derby when he could not match strides late with the top trio.

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2. Litmus Test

All indications were that Litmus Test looked terrific on the track before the Arkansas Derby, and when Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert takes the blinkers off a 3-year-old it typically leads to a positive outcome. That was not the case March 28 at Oaklawn Park, where Litmus Test got off to a troubled start and never factored in a seventh-place finish, beaten by 12 ½ lengths. With 34 points toward qualifying for the Derby, Litmus Test very likely is now on the outside looking in for a spot in the 20-horse field. Even if Litmus Test did qualify, he would need a sharp reversal in form to be a serious player in the May 2 classic.

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3. Pyromancer

I’ll admit I bought into the hype on Pyromancer entering the United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored by Jumeirah March 28. I’ve long been a believer in Japan-based and -trained horses at an international level and this previously unbeaten colt by Pyro tickled my fancy. He’d beaten Wonder Dean two starts back but this time was no match for his countrymate, finishing 8 ½ lengths back in third. He’s clearly a talented racehorse, but he’s no longer unbeaten and the Derby dreams faded as did he in the Meydan stretch.

Of note: Daily Racing Form reported March 28 that both Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes winner Paladin and ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby third-place finisher Canaletto would be sidelined through the Triple Crown races with injuries. Paladin was unquestionably one of the leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby with three wins in as many starts, including the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes at age 2 and the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star in his 3-year-old bow for trainer Chad Brown. Paladin will be sidelined through summer recovering from a condylar fracture to his right front cannon bone. Canaletto, a half-sibling to 2025 Arkansas Derby winner Sandman, also will be sidelined until fall according to the report.