FOX Sports Analyst Jonathon Kinchen Discusses the 2025 Belmont Stakes Field

Racing
Jonathon Kinchen, NYRA, analyst, handicapper, Belmont Stakes, Saratoga, betting, gambling, horseplayer, Journalism, Baeza, Sovereignty, Rodriguez, Heart of Honor, Crudo, Todd Pletcher, Bill Mott, Michael McCarthy, Bob Baffert, Triple Crown, ABR
NYRA analyst Jonathon Kinchen picks Journalism as his top win candidate in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. (Eclipse Sportswire/Skip Dickstein)

This week, FOX Sports is providing extensive coverage of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, highlighted by Saturday’s 157th edition of the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, from Saratoga Race Course. The five-day event was moved to the fabled upstate New York venue due to the construction of a new Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y.

All of Friday’s action can be viewed from 11:30 a.m.-8 p.m. ET. An early broadcast on FS2 will lead into the national show from 5-6 p.m. Viewers can shift to FS1 for the conclusion of the race card. On Belmont Stakes Day, the national broadcast will extend from 2:30-7:30 p.m. ET with most of the remainder on FS1.

Jonathon Kinchen will be prominent among a team of FOX analysts. He shared his thoughts on the Triple Crown format, the highly-anticipated showdown between Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve winner Sovereignty and Preakness Stakes victor Journalism, and the buzz surrounding Derby third-place finisher Baeza among many topics raised during a question-and-answer session conducted on behalf of America’s Best Racing.


PEDULLA: With the success of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival since its temporary move to Saratoga, does that make a case for extending the customary 40-day summer meet?

KINCHEN: I don’t think so. Belmont Park is going to turn out to be probably the best racetrack in the world, it feels like. While that’s happening, we’re fortunate to have this as our Plan B. It’s just a great thing that happened and to be a part of, but I think something special happens over 40 days, eight weeks.

PEDULLA: Do you think the Triple Crown format should be changed?

Sovereignty trains at the Spa. (Eclipse Sportswire)

KINCHEN: The reason we even care about the Triple Crown is because it’s scarce and it’s great. If it was easy, then the words ‘Triple Crown’ wouldn’t mean anything. What do they call the Pegasus (World Cup), the Belmont and the Haskell [Stakes]? They don’t call it anything because it’s not anything. It is what it is because it is what it is. If there was a world in which you could get a three-week break between the Derby and the Preakness, I wouldn’t be opposed to that. But I am not a believer in a May, June, July Triple Crown because, to me, that is not the Triple Crown.

PEDULLA: What are your feelings on the decision to have Sovereignty skip the Preakness to focus solely on the Belmont?

KINCHEN: These are living, breathing animals that come first. I trust these horse trainers, especially one that has the credentials [Hall of Famer] Bill Mott does. And if he felt that was best, that’s great. Am I disappointed? Yes. Would I have loved to have seen him? Yes. Do I believe that Derby winners run well in the Preakness? Yes. But I’m a horseplayer. I’ll leave the horse decisions to the horsemen.

PEDULLA: Do you think they made the right decision to run Derby runner-up and Preakness winner Journalism in the Belmont, his third race in five weeks?

KINCHEN: It’s the same kind of situation. If it was a lesser trainer, a trainer that I didn’t have the utmost confidence in putting the horse first, if it wasn’t a trainer I believe is on his way to greatness and a Hall of Fame career, then I suppose maybe you would question something. But when it comes to Michael McCarthy, I have no doubt in my mind that if he didn’t think he’d be getting the best version of Journalism, he wouldn’t be running him.

PEDULLA: There is quite a buzz surrounding third-place Derby finisher Baeza. What are your thoughts on him?

KINCHEN: I think when you have a situation like this where there are two highly-touted horses, the third horse always becomes interesting because some people like to be allergic to betting favorites. I think the horses to beat, without a doubt, are Sovereignty and Journalism. I think Baeza is a developing horse that could jump up and have a good race. But I believe if either Sovereignty or Journalism runs his ‘A’ race, one of them will beat Baeza. Sovereignty has done it once already, Journalism twice.

PEDULLA: With Rodriguez’s early speed, does that make him dangerous in this spot?

weekend Television schedule

Thursday, June 5: 12:30-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Friday, June 6: 11:30 a.m.-5 p.m. and 7:30-8 p.m. on FS2; 5-6 p.m. on FOX; 6-7:30 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, June 7: 10:30 a.m.-2:30 p.m. and 4-8:15 p.m. on FS1; 2:30-7:30 p.m. on FOX; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, June 8: 12:30-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

KINCHEN: Speed is always dangerous. [Hall of Fame trainer] Bob Baffert is always dangerous in these races. The one thing I love about Rodriguez and Bob, Bob is not going to try to “walk the dog” with the lone speed horse. He’s going to let Rodriguez strut his stuff and do his thing. It will make for an honest pace. I have always felt Rodriguez was a cut below the top two and maybe the top three. I wouldn’t be shocked if he won, but I think he is the third- or fourth-best horse.

PEDULLA: Will the start be pivotal for Heart of Honor, who has a tendency to break poorly from the gate?

KINCHEN: The start, the middle, the end, I don’t think it matters. I commend [his connections] for taking the shot. I think it is more compelling and interesting when you have horses and riders we are not familiar with seeing. I’m not knocking the participation. But there is another league for that horse.

PEDULLA: Can Crudo overcome his lack of seasoning?

KINCHEN: I think he’s the most interesting horse because his performance in the Sir Barton [Stakes] was sensational. He’s trained by a guy [Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher] who knows his way around Saratoga and knows his way around the third leg of the Triple Crown [four Belmont wins]. I don’t think they’d be participating if they didn’t believe he at least belongs in the conversation. We don’t fully know who he is. I think we know who Rodriguez is, Baeza, Journalism. We’re getting to know Crudo and he could introduce himself on Saturday.

PEDULLA: May I ask you for a live longshot?

KINCHEN: I would go Crudo. He’s interesting as a horse that could get into the trifecta.

PEDULLA: May I ask you for your top four?

KINCHEN: Journalism, Baeza, Rodriguez, Sovereignty. I’m a believer in the decisions you make, whether it’s the fitness of Journalism or the freshness of Sovereignty. I’m siding with the fitness of Journalism. I’ve never seen a horse do what he did in the Preakness. That kind of move, that kind of determination, is hard to ignore.

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