With the final round of prep races for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve that awarded 100 points to the winner now in the books, the time has come to take a look at the cast of 3-year-old racehorses in line to compete in the first jewel of the Triple Crown May 3 at Churchill Downs.

For the early overview, let’s group the probable runners into tiers. Keep in mind, my view of the field for the 151^st running of the Kentucky Derby almost certainly differs from other analysts.

Journalism (BENOIT photo)

1) The Big Guns

Journalism, Sandman, Sovereignty

I debated making Journalism a tier of his own, but he did regress a bit in victory in the April 5 Santa Anita Derby even if he is the fastest 3-year-old in the field and the best finisher. Journalism, by top stamina sire Curlin, completed his final eighth of a mile in a very fast :12.32 while taking a step back. He’s the most likely winner.

The Kentucky Derby, of course, features up to 20 starters and about 150,000 fans in attendance plus other factors like weather and pace, so anything can happen. If Journalism does not fire his best, fast-closing Arkansas Derby winner Sandman and Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa runner-up Sovereignty, another deep closer, seem best equipped to win the race with a combination of stamina and quality speed figures.

2) The Next Tier

Burnham Square, Rodriguez, Tappan Street, Tiztastic

I strongly considered including Tappan Street, who defeated Sovereignty in the Florida Derby, in the top tier and I would not quibble with anyone who believes he belongs in that group. He’s bred to handle the 1 ¼-mile distance, he has a little more tactical speed than Sovereignty, and he finished his final three-eighths of a mile in :37.06 and final quarter-mile in :24.91 in the Florida Derby. Tappan Street is legit.

Burnham Square proved his mettle in closing from last to first to win the $1.25 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes; Rodriguez made a sharp improvement in winning the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct; and Tiztastic earned career-best speed figures when stretching out to 1 3/16 miles for the first time in the $1 million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. It wouldn’t be a shock if any of them won the Kentucky Derby if they can improve off wins in major prep races.

Final Gambit (Coady Media)

3) All-Weather Wild Cards

Final Gambit, Flying Mohawk

The top two from the $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks both finished really well in that March 22 race at Turfway Park. Neither, however, has ever competed in a race on a dirt main track like the one they will navigate at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom (2011) and Rich Strike (2022) prepped at Turfway and won the Kentucky Derby, the latter at 80.80-1 odds, and Two Phil’s won the Jeff Ruby and finished second in the 2023 Kentucky Derby. But make no mistake, backing Final Gambit or Flying Mohawk comes with significant risk. The key is that the reward (a big price) is worth it. 

4) The Beaten Champ

Citizen Bull

Speaking of wild cards, Citizen Bull was a buzzsaw for three straight starts, winning a Grade 1 race last October at Santa Anita Park by two lengths, the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA by 1 ½ lengths in November at Del Mar, and then beginning 2025 with a 3 ¾-length victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Last year’s champion 2-year-old male ran his rivals off their feet, leading from start to finish in all three races for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. So, it came as a shock not that Citizen Bull lost his final prep for the Kentucky Derby April 5, but that he faded so badly late in the Santa Anita Derby when beaten by 9 ¾ lengths by Journalism. How do we evaluate Citizen Bull off that race? Do you draw a line through it and trust Baffert to have him ready? Do you toss him coming off of the worst race of his career? My advice is to watch how he trains for the race over the next three weeks and take an educated guess on a fast and talented colt.

5) The International Contingent

Admire Daytona, Luxor Café

Japan-based Forever Young ran a terrific race in 2024 to just miss in a three-horse photo finish in the 2024 Kentucky Derby and this year that country has a pair of probable starters in Luxor Café and Admire Daytona. The former was a dominant five-length winner of the Fukuryu Stakes March 29 at Nakayama and boasts an impeccable pedigree. By 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Luxor Café is full-brother (same sire [father] and same dam [mother]) to Japanese champion and sire Café Pharoah and a half-brother (same dam, different sire) to 2022 U.S. champion turf female Regal Glory. Admire Daytona and Heart of Honor, the latter of which wintered in Dubai with European-based trainer Jamie Osborne, were the top two finishers in the $1 million United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored by Jumeirah Group April 5 at Meydan, separated by a nose in a thrilling finish. Now Admire Daytona must make the 7,374-mile journey to Louisville to compete in the Derby on four weeks rest. It’s a lot to ask of a 3-year-old. Osborne, on the other hand, plans to bypass the Kentucky Derby in favor of the Preakness Stakes and/or Belmont Stakes for Heart of Honor.

American Promise (Coady Media)

6) In … With a Shot (Some Better Than Others)

American Promise, Chunk of Gold, Coal Battle, East Avenue, Flood Zone, Grande, Publisher, River Thames

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas’s American Promise won the Virginia Derby March 15 at Colonial Downs by 7 ¾ lengths in a track record time of 1:46.41, earning a 101 Equibase Speed Figure and 95 Beyer Speed Figure. That was a one-turn, 1 1/8-mile race on a very fast track, making it hard for me to quantify. Wood Memorial runner-up Grande competed for the second straight race at 1 1/8 miles, and he finished well with a final three-eighths of a mile in :37.24 and a final quarter-mile in :24.90. He also showed some versatility in rallying from sixth after a half-mile after pressing the pace in his first two races and is bred to relish every bit of the 1 ¼ miles. Grande looks like the best win candidate from this tier. Most of the others in this group also present a challenge to evaluate: Louisiana Derby runner-up Chunk of Gold is improving but has yet to win a stakes race; Coal Battle was so good earlier this year but seemed to take a step back when third in the Arkansas Derby; East Avenue took a step in the right direction in the Blue Grass but couldn’t hold on after setting the pace at 1 1/8 miles; Flood Zone’s seventh-place finish in the United Arab Emirates Derby was a debacle but he looked terrific in the Gotham Stakes;  Publisher has never won any race but enters off a career-best second in the Arkansas Derby; and River Thames did not elevate his game like I’d hoped when third in the Blue Grass after finishing second in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes March 1 at Gulfstream Park. From this group, Grande appears to be the most likely winner while Chunk of Gold and Coal Battle look like live longshots May 3 at Churchill.

7) On the Bubble

Built, Madaket Road, Baeza

Louisiana Derby fifth-place finisher Built; Florida Derby fourth-place finisher Madaket Road; and Baeza, the half-sibling to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, would need one of more defections to qualify. Baeza ran a tremendous race when second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby when making his stakes debut, earning career-best Equibase (107) and Beyer (101) Speed Figures. He’s a serious 3-year-old prospect wherever he winds up next, which trainer John Shirreffs said might be the Preakness Stakes.