BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a review of leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 3.

King’s latest list reflects the results of the final three 200-point qualifying races for the Kentucky Derby and assesses how the prospective field is shaping up with just over three weeks remaining until the big race.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Sovereignty

Godolphin has won a countless number of Grade/Group 1 races around the world and has been on a roll in North America, winning its fourth consecutive dual Eclipse Award titles as owner and breeder in 2024 to bring Godolphin/Darley's overall total to 13. To date, the Kentucky Derby has eluded them. Essential Quality would run third in the 2021 race before winning the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets. Darley's Bernardini won the 2006 Preakness Stakes in other Triple Crown action. Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Sovereignty gives the global powerhouse another quality Derby off-the-pace shot, and the speedy East Avenue could also run for them.

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2. Journalism

Fake news? Not Journalism. The Kentucky Derby favorite is 4-for-4 since being stretched out to a route. Though his Santa Anita Derby victory was not quite as fast as his DK Horse San Felipe Stakes triumph based on speed figures, he overcame adversity when steadied behind a backpedaling leader while trapped inside on the second turn. Rather than grow discouraged, he kicked into gear and ran down a well-regarded maiden winner in Baeza. Considering this came in a five-horse field – he's raced exclusively in small stakes lineups – he gained important seasoning for the 20-horse scrum expected to unfold in the Kentucky Derby.

(Note: Baeza would be in the bottom half of the Derby Dozen if he had enough Kentucky Derby qualifying points, but at this stage he appears unlikely to gain entry if the race overfills. He has the talent to be among the top 12 Derby prospects.)

Lauren King/Coglianese Photo

3. Tappan Street

WinStar Farm and CHC (China Horse Club), two of the owners associated with 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, are heading back to the Derby with another talented colt in Tappan Street, the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at Xalapa winner and Holy Bull Stakes runner-up. Like the Bob Baffert-trained Justify, the Brad Cox-conditioned Tappan Street will try to win the Derby after making only three prior starts. Regret (1915), Big Brown (2008), and Mage (2023) are the other Derby winners with three prior outings. WinStar also won the 2010 Derby with the more seasoned Super Saver, trained by Todd Pletcher.

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4. Sandman

Two of Sandman's owners, West Point Thoroughbreds and St. Elias Stable, were part of the partnership that won the 2017 Kentucky Derby with the Todd Pletcher-trained Always Dreaming. Always Dreaming captured the Florida Derby before splashing his way to victory over a wet track in the Kentucky Derby. Sandman takes a Midwestern journey, having raced at Oaklawn Park through the winter, capped by a victory there in the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby.

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5. Luxor Café

While other Japanese runners went to Dubai to contest the April 5 United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored by Jumeirah at Meydan Racecourse, he stayed put, romping in the March 29 Fukuryu Stakes after a hard-fought victory in the Feb. 23 Hyacinth Stakes. A winner of his last four starts, he qualified for the run for the roses via the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. His form appears legitimate. Admire Daytona and Don in the Mood, beaten by him in the Hyacinth, ran 1-3 in the UAE Derby. From a visual perspective, Luxor Café delivered an even better performance in Fukuryu Stakes, though the competition was likely a bit softer than in the Hyacinth.

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6. Burnham Square 

Rallying from last, he caught East Avenue  in the final strides to win the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, his second graded stakes victory of the year following the Holy Bull Stakes this winter. As strong as his late finish was, the Blue Grass time was just 1:51.33. There has not been a slower Blue Grass time since Keeneland changed back from the all-weather Polytrack surface to dirt in the summer of 2014. The performance still earned him a 104 Equibase Speed Figure.

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7. Coal Battle

The Cinderella story behind this 3-year-old will resonate with the media and fans leading up to the Derby, being a diminutive, modestly priced, overachieving colt with roots at Evangeline Downs and affable connections. But Coal Battle is more than a feel-good story – he's a 3-year-old with a 5-for-6 record on dirt, with his only defeat being a third in the Arkansas Derby. If he can settle and finish as he did in the Rebel Stakes, when he got the jump on Sandman and outran him, Coal Battle has a shot. Already on site at Churchill Downs, he worked a half-mile in :48.40 there April 8.

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8. Grande

Though Rodriguez outran him in the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino, he is in the Derby Dozen and instead of his rival for a couple of reasons. First, he had a difficult trip for a speed horse. After making a premature backstretch move after getting shuffled back when wide into the first turn, he maintained a sustained run to finish 3 ½ lengths behind the rail-riding winner. Second, he seems likelier to replicate his performance at Churchill Downs, having shown he can run quickly with various trips, whereas Rodriguez's fastest races have come when he has controlled the pace. Ranked No. 22 on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard April 8, he would appear likely with the usual defections that take place to secure a spot between now and the race.

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9. Tiztastic

Remember when Hall of Fame jockey Pat Day was still searching for his first Derby win after runner-up rides on 3-year-olds such as Forty Niner, Easy Goer, and Summer Squall, then he surprised in the 1992 Kentucky Derby aboard Lil E. Tee? If Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby winner Tiztastic or Arkansas Derby runner-up Publisher upsets the Derby this year for trainer Steve Asmussen, that story would be pretty similar. Asmussen, a Hall of Famer and North America's winningest trainer, is 0-3-2 with 26 starters in the Derby, annually the deepest race in North America and arguably the toughest to win.

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10. Chunk of Gold  

Though he has yet to win a stakes race, he would appear more likely to handle 1 ¼ miles than many others, landing him a spot in the Derby Dozen. Twice a runner-up in graded stakes this winter at Fair Grounds – first in the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes and later in the Louisiana Derby – he finishes like a 3-year-old that could improve a few lengths going a classic distance.

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11. Citizen Bull

After enjoying comfortable front-running trips in racking up victories in the 2024 American Pharaoh Stakes Presented by DK Horse, 2024 FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, and the Feb. 1 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, he was hooked early in the Santa Anita Derby by Baeza's pacemaker Westwood. Citizen Bull, playing a pace-pressing role before taking over after a half-mile, faded to fourth, beaten almost 10 lengths. Trainer Bob Baffert said after the race that the colt was likely short peak fitness after two months off, but the abrupt fade nevertheless results in his Derby Dozen descent to No. 11.

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12. American Promise

This towering chestnut put it all together in winning the March 15 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs, defeating Render Judgment by 7 ¾ lengths. The competition seemed modest in that race, but Render Judgment was not outrun by all that much when fifth in the Blue Grass, beaten four lengths. American Promise seems to be developing at the right time this spring for Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, a four-time Derby winner. This is somewhat reminiscent of his 1999 winner Charismatic in that many are looking past him coming into this year's Derby.