Had he been born in a different year, there is a very good chance Baeza would have a victory in a Triple Crown race on his resume. Surely, he would have won a Grade 1 race before the Pennsylvania Derby Sept. 20 at Parx Racing.

Instead, the McKinzie colt entered the $1 million race in search of his first stakes win as the 7-5 favorite, and he authored a breakthrough win in the 1 1/8-mile race. While the Pennsylvania Derby was not a “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series race, Baeza should have no trouble qualifying for the 2025 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic after a dominant 2 ¼-length win to complement three Grade 1 placings on his record.

Accomplishments: Baeza was unplaced in his career debut on the turf in December 2024 at Del Mar. He has not finished outside the top three in seven subsequent starts, all on dirt.

A half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, Baeza made his stakes debut in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby April 5 after a dominant maiden win on the Santa Anita Park main track in February. He opened a clear lead in the stretch of his fourth career start but was caught late by Journalism, beaten by three-quarters of a length at 14.30-1 odds while finishing ahead of champion Citizen Bull. It was a promising stakes debut later flattered by Journalism’s wins in the Preakness Stakes and NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes.

Baeza followed with third-place finishes behind Sovereignty and Journalism in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets. After another runner-up finish to Sovereignty in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun July 26 at Saratoga Race Course, Baeza had run his eyeballs out in four straight big-time stakes races and had nary a win to show for it. That changed in the Pennsylvania Derby.

Jockey Hector Berrios conserved Baeza’s energy in the early stages of the race. Baeza accelerated on cue on the final turn, rallied powerfully from four wide entering the stretch, and surged clear with a final eighth of a mile in :12.65 to win by 2 ¼ lengths. Baeza completed his final three furlongs in approximately :37.10 to secure the elusive stakes win.

“This was very gratifying,” trainer John Shirreffs said. “We have been close in some of the big races and today he put it all together.”

Speed Figures: Baeza earned a career-best 116 Equibase Speed Figure for the Pennsylvania Derby win, a five-point jump from his previous best, and boosted his Beyer Speed Figure to a new top of 105. He has now earned five-straight triple-digit Beyers: 101-102-100-103-105. Born May 13, Baeza is very young for his crop and looks like a colt on a clear upward trajectory by the numbers.

A happy Pennsylvania Derby winner’s circle. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Looking Ahead: Shirreffs told Daily Racing Form that Baeza’s owners, C R K Stable and Grandview Equine (his breeder), would like to test him against the best of the best in the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic Nov. 1 at Del Mar. The bay 3-year-old colt will have six weeks of rest between the Pennsylvania Derby and the Breeders’ Cup. Provided he emerges from the win in good shape and Shirreffs is pleased with how he responds in the coming weeks, Baeza should be well-positioned for his first try against older horses.

The Classic is expected to lure both Sovereignty and Journalism as well as a stout group of older males that includes last year’s winner Sierra Leone, champion Fierceness, and multiple Grade 1 winner Mindframe, among others.

This could be one of the deepest fields in recent memory for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but Baeza has never finished worse than third on the dirt while consistently facing elite competition. His dam, Puca, has established herself as a superstar broodmare and Baeza clearly is improving in the second half of his 3-year-old season. Baeza would very likely need to take another step forward to turn the tables on Sovereignty and/or defeat the best older males, but he’s a fighter who brings it every race and he’s never been better. There is much to like, so I’m buying Baeza stock. He'll be used heavily on my Breeders’ Cup Classic tickets.