This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they previously were.

In the first edition of this blog for the 2025 run for the roses, the focus is on the changing landscape of the 3-year-old male division since the start of winter (Dec. 21) with the last juvenile races of 2024 and the first 3-year-old races of 2025 now in the books. Journalism, winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity Dec. 14, would have topped this list had his race fallen within the boundaries outlined above, but his breakthrough win came a week before the cutoff date.

HEATING UP

Baffert and Barnes. (Eclipse Sportswire)

1. Barnes

There were so many racing analysts raving over Barnes’ debut win Nov. 27, 2024, at Churchill Downs that I went back and rewatched the race multiple times to try to see what I was missing. Sure, it was a somewhat fast race according to the speed figures, but he was fully extended to hold off a challenger at 5 ½ furlongs and looked pretty green in doing so. My eyes did not see a future Kentucky Derby winner. Five-and-a-half weeks later, Barnes looked like a more professional racehorse in dominating the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park by 5 ½ lengths with Bob Hope Stakes winner Bullard, a 3-year-old I still really like, third and beaten by six lengths. A $3.2 million purchased named after Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s longtime assistant Jimmy Barnes, this colt by leading sire Into Mischief obviously was well regarded long before his career even started. He improved from a 98 to a 99 Equibase Speed Figure and from an 87 to a 94 Beyer Speed Figure in the seven-furlong San Vicente, so he’s fast in addition to the mental maturation he showed in his stakes debut. I still have my doubts about how he will handle 1 ¼ miles in May and I wouldn’t be inclined to bet him in any Kentucky Derby Futures pool at the odds he’s now listed at, but my overall perspective shifted significantly and I now consider Barnes a legitimate Derby contender.

Built wins the Gun Runner. (Eclipse Sportswire)

2. Built

Built won the Gun Runner Stakes on the first day of winter Dec. 21 at Fair Grounds for trainer Wayne Catalano. He impressed me in winning by 6 ¾ lengths and boosted his Beyer Speed Figure 15 points to a 92 and his Equibase Speed Figure seven points to a 95. Built completed his final five-sixteenths of a mile in :29.76 with a final sixteenth in 6.26 seconds in his first try in a race around two turns, which is extremely promising. Built is in the hands of a terrific horseman in Catalano, who has more than 3,000 wins as a trainer and more than 1,500 wins as a jockey on his résumé. As he’s by Hard Spun out of a Curlin mare and having shown improvement when stretching out from seven-eighths of a mile to 1 1/16 miles, Built has a very strong chance to excel with added distance on the Derby trail. The one obvious concern coming out of the Gun Runner was that Built was allowed to set a criminally slow pace in that race, but he isn’t a need-the-lead type as he won his previous race from a length off the pace after the opening half-mile. Needless to say, I’m optimistic about the chances of Built to make an impact on the Derby trail and perhaps the first jewel of the 2025 Triple Crown.

Rodriguez impresses. (Eclipse Sportswire)

3. Rodriguez

If you’ve read this blog over the last decade-plus, you know I very rarely include maiden winners in the Heating Up section. More often than not, I tuck them in the also-eligible section as one to keep an eye on because I truly believe the jump to stakes competition is steep. I made an exception for Rodriguez, a colt fellow America’s Best Racing editor Patrick Reed alerted me to, because I thought his Jan. 4 win in a two-turn mile race at Santa Anita was just ultra-impressive. Trained by Bob Baffert, Rodriguez set a solid pace through a half-mile in :46.33 and still finished well with a final eighth of a mile in :12.91 to win by seven lengths. Daily Racing Form gave Rodriguez a 101 Beyer Speed Figure (revised from a 93) and he boosted his Equibase Speed Figure to a 96. That Beyer number is particularly eye-catching for a 3-year-old colt in January. The last few years we’ve only seen a handful of 3-year-olds per class reach triple digits by Kentucky Derby day, so that sharp improvement from a 79 to a 101 while stretching out from 6 ½ furlongs to one mile serves as a promising indicator. The Authentic colt is a close sibling to 2017 Southwest Stakes winner One Liner, by Authentic’s sire, Into Mischief.  Rodriguez entered the race off a second to stablemate Romanesque in his Nov. 23 debut at Del Mar, a runner-up finish flattered when Romanesque finished second to Barnes (another Baffert stablemate) later on the same Santa Anita card in the San Vicente. Suffice it to say, it was a strong weekend for the Baffert contingent.

Also eligible: The other three runners I gave strong consideration to were Smarty Jones Stakes winner Coal Battle, Jerome Stakes victor Cyclone State, and Mucho Macho Man Stakes winner Guns Loaded. A compelling argument could be made for all three, especially Coal Battle after extending his stakes winning streak to three, but the key knock for all of them is that they simply don’t look fast enough yet. It’s January and 3-year-olds regularly make huge strides in a single race, so that could change in a hurry, but for now I’m more optimistic about Barnes, Built, and Rodriguez.

COOLING DOWN

It’s worth noting in the first edition of “Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down” that I’m not dismissing the 3-year-olds in the cooling down section in any way. In fact, most of the horses that appear here are in the top 5% (at least) of racehorses in their age group – however, the Kentucky Derby trail is unforgiving and oftentimes a disappointing race can be the difference between qualifying or not qualifying for the Derby. The goal of this section is simply to point to 3-year-olds whose Derby stock declined in recent days/weeks.

Studlydoright (Chelsea Durand/NYRA)

1. Studlydoright

Grade 3-placed multiple stakes winner Studlydoright was the 1.85-1 favorite for the Jerome Stakes at the same track and distance of his Nashua Stakes score Nov. 2, 2024. He finished a distant fourth in the one-turn mile Jan. 4, beaten by 6 ¾ lengths by Cyclone State in a race that was not very fast according to the speed-figure makers. The Nyquist colt is clearly a stakes-quality racehorse, but after his fourth when stretching out in distance to 1 1/8 miles for the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes, I was looking for a strong bounce-back effort in the Jerome and it didn’t happen. Studlydoright is a quality 3-year-old colt but barring a breakout effort in an upcoming race, he doesn’t look to my eyes like a major player on the Kentucky Derby trail.

2. Kale’s Angel

Kale’s Angel entered the Smarty Jones Stakes off an eye-catching stakes win in his first career start on dirt when he won the Advent Stakes at Oaklawn Park by 5 ¾ lengths Dec. 6. Prior to that race, he’d shown talent on turf with a maiden win and a fourth-place finish, beaten by three lengths, in a Grade 3 stakes. He pressed pacesetter Coal Battle in the Smarty Jones through an easy pace but could not keep up with him late and finished 4 ¼ lengths back in third as the 13-10 favorite in the short field of six 3-year-olds. Kale’s Angel is certainly eligible to improve in his next race if he remains on the Kentucky Derby trail, but the Smarty Jones looked like a great opportunity to pick up a win and he was beaten by the better horse in Coal Battle on that day. His two wins to date have come in sprints and I’m still trying to figure out where he fits moving forward: sprints, turf, dirt, etc. For that reason, I’m significantly less optimistic about his chances on the Derby trail this week than I was before the Smarty Jones.

Bullard (BENOIT photo)

3. Bullard

I admit I’m having significant trouble with what to make of Bullard after his third-place finish in the San Vicente Stakes. I absolutely loved his 4 ¾-length victory in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes Nov. 17 at Del Mar, which earned a 105 Equibase Speed Figure and an 89 Beyer Speed Figure – both very strong numbers for a 2-year-old in the fall. He finished third behind a quality racehorse in Barnes in the San Vicente Jan. 4 at Santa Anita Park, but he went from second and three lengths back in early stretch to six lengths behind the winner at the finish line. His Beyer Speed Figure regressed to an 84 and his Equibase Speed Figure dipped to an 87 so it’s hard to argue that the race was not a step back. Still, I have a real hard time knocking a 3-year-old by stamina sire Gun Runner who has yet to make a start around two turns. I really want to see what he looks like navigating a longer race on the Kentucky Derby trail before I make any major judgment with regard to his viability as a Kentucky Derby contender. Nonetheless, I was significantly higher on him a week ago than I am today … even if I probably will bet Bullard back in his next race.

Of note: Admiral Dennis ran a very fast race in his second start to win a one-mile maiden special weight on the dirt at Churchill Downs by 3 ½ lengths after settling in just off the pace. He stumbled at the start of the Gun Runner Stakes Dec. 21, dropped back to fifth, and made a middle move before fading late to finish fourth and 16 ½ lengths behind winner Built. Given the trouble at the start, I’m inclined to draw a line through the race and give the Constitution colt another shot.