The depth and quality of the 12 3-year-olds entered for Saturday’s $400,000 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds is by far the strongest to date on the Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. It makes sense considering the Risen Star is the first race of the Championship Series of qualifying races and is one of 14 stakes that rewards the winner with either 50 or 100 points, essentially guaranteeing the victor a spot in the starting gate May 4 at Churchill Downs.

The Grade 2 Risen Star awards Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 basis to the top five finishers and the 1 1/8-mile race drew five 3-year-olds who have won or placed at the graded stakes level and seven who have won or placed at the stakes level.

Here are five questions that must be answered in the 2024 Risen Star Stakes …

1. How close to 100% are the horses returning from an extended break in the Risen Star?

Honor Marie has not raced since winning the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes by two lengths Nov. 25 at Churchill Downs. Likewise, Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes runner-up Real Men Violin and Grade 2 Remsen Stakes runner-up Sierra Leone will be making their first starts in 12 weeks and 11 weeks, respectively, and Remsen fourth-place finisher Moonlight has also been off since that Dec. 2 race. All four have shown ability, but the months at the end of a 2-year-old season and early in a 3-year-old campaign are critical in terms of the physical and mental maturation of a Thoroughbred racehorse. Quite simply, a lot can change in three months. Add in the fact that trainers of talented 3-year-olds are aiming to achieve a peak performance on the first Saturday in May, not the third Saturday in February, and it’s easy to understand why this group muddles the Risen Star forecast.

Historically, winning the Risen Star off a long layoff is a tall order. Keeler Johnson noted that 15 of the last 16 winners raced in January or February and finished in the top four, while only Gun Runner in 2016 won the Risen Star off a layoff of seven weeks or more.

Hall of Fame (Lou Hodges, Jr. /Hodges Photography)

2. How good is buzz horse Hall of Fame? Trainer Steve Asmussen entered two horses in the Risen Star, including Gun Runner Stakes and Lecomte Stakes winner Track Phantom, who figures to vie for favoritism. His other runner, Hall of Fame, also should be well-supported in the wagering based on a dominant 10 ¼-length romp on this track when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles on Jan. 20. The 94 Beyer Speed Figure the chestnut colt by Gun Runner earned is the best in this field and his 97 Equibase Speed Figure and 91 Brisnet speed rating also were excellent for a 3-year-old in his second race and first try navigating two turns. Hall of Fame’s winning time of 1:44.27 was almost a half-second faster than Track Phantom’s time for winning the Lecomte Stakes at the same 1 1/16-mile distance eight races later that day at Fair Grounds. Hall of Fame looks like a serious racehorse, but part of what makes this edition of the Risen Star so exciting is that he’s not the only exciting prospect making his stakes debut.

3. Are there any other potential breakout candidates in the Risen Star? Cardinale, Resilience, and Bee Dancer – like the above-mentioned Hall of Fame – all will step up in class for their first try in a stakes race after flashing potential in recent starts. Bee Dancer could be any kind of racehorse after winning his debut by a length Jan. 20 at Fair Grounds, but he is stretching out from three-quarters of a mile to 1 1/8 miles and drew the disadvantageous outside post. Cardinale enters off a second to Change of Command in a 1 1/16-mile race where he improved both his Equibase and Beyer Speed Figures significantly. That race was not flattered, however, last weekend when Change of Command finished 11th of 12 in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. That brings us to Resilience. Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, the Into Mischief colt follows a path similar to the one Modernist used to win a division of the 2020 Risen Star. Both won maiden races in January at other tracks for Mott and shipped in for the Risen Star off promising wins. Equibase handicapper Ellis Starr made Resilience his top pick and Hall of Fame his third choice.

4. Will Track Phantom face any early pressure this time? Track Phantom set an uncontested pace in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes Jan. 20 and had plenty of stamina in reserve in coasting to a 2 ¾-length runaway. The Risen Star did not attract a ton of speedy types, but Cardinale has shown speed in both his races and Hall of Fame was prominent early in his recent win. Likewise, Bee Dancer raced near the pace in his debut sprinting, so there could be company for Track Phantom. The good news for the Lecomte winner’s supporters is that he has shown the ability to rate off the pace and win, as he did in the Gun Runner Stakes. He’s no one-trick pony.

5. Which horse can spice up the exacta or trifecta at a big price? I mentioned earlier the four runners coming off extended layoffs: Honor Marie, Real Men Violin, Sierra Leone, and Moonlight. In my opinion, the first three are in the mold of those 3-year-olds that trainers plan to ramp up slowly. Moonlight, in my opinion, is facing more of a prove-it moment for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, who has won this race three times. Pletcher, who also entered Cardinale, has not missed a workout with Moonlight since he got back to serious training Jan. 4. He's got a nice string of six workouts, and the last two have been pretty sharp so I’m expecting him to be ready. I think he’s bred for this 1 1/8-mile distance and his 12-1 odds mean you’ll be rewarded if you back him and he runs well.

Mike’s Superfecta: 1. Hall of Fame, 2. Moonlight, 3. Sierra Leone, 4. Track Phantom