The New Orleans path to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve continues Saturday with the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte Stakes, the second of four qualifying races at Fair Grounds for 3-year-olds targeting the 2024 run for the roses.

Track Phantom won the Gun Runner Stakes Dec. 23 in the first of the Fair Grounds points races and the series will continue after the Lecomte with the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes Feb. 17 at 1 1/8 miles and the $1 million, 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby March 23.

The Lecomte Stakes is a Grade 3 race that offers the winner 20 points toward Kentucky Derby qualifying as well as $120,000 of the $200,000 purse. The second- through fifth-place finishers will earn 10, six, four, and two points, respectively, toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby.

The Lecomte Stakes is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET and will be televised on FanDuel TV.

Here are five questions that must be answered in the 2024 Lecomte Stakes …

1. Will the real Nash please step forward? After a second-place finish in his career debut, #2 Nash stampeded to a front-running, 10 ¼-length romp in 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race on Nov. 12, 2023, at Churchill Downs that was as dominant visually as it was on paper. He earned a 101 Equibase Speed Figure and a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. The latter is eight points faster than anyone else in this eight-horse field for the Lecomte has ever run. But the Godolphin homebred Medaglia d’Oro colt disappointed as the odds-on favorite in the Gun Runner Stakes and finished three lengths behind winner #7 Track Phantom. Is the Gun Runner version the real Nash or will the 5-2 second choice on the morning line improve upon his stakes debut and run another monster race like he did in November at Churchill? My hunch is he fires his best shot.

Can Group (Keeneland/Coady Photography)

2. How will the pace scenario play out after the reported scratch of Gun Runner Stakes pacesetter Next Level from the Lecomte?  Winner Track Phantom pressed #1 Next Level through a strong half-mile in :46.93 in the Gun Runner Stakes and put him away with ease en route to a clear lead in early stretch. While Next Level was entered in the Lecomte, trainer Keith Desormeaux​ told Daily Racing Form he will be scratched from the race, leaving the Lecomte without an obvious pacesetter. Absent any other obvious speed horses – #8 Awesome Road has some tactical speed but will be rerouted to a different race — expect to see 9-5 morning-line favorite Track Phantom alone in front and perhaps get a dream trip uncontested on the lead. On the other hand, there is a chance Next Level’s defection forces the hand of Florent Geroux and he sends Nash, who led from start to finish in his runaway win in November at Churchill.​

3. Will Can Group handle the surface switch back to dirt? #4 Can Group holds a class edge on this field as the only graded stakes winner in the bunch, but the reality is his best races to date, including his win in the Grade 2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes, came on the grass. The Good Samaritan colt has not raced since closing for fourth, beaten by only two lengths, in the $920,000 Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He finished third twice in as many starts on dirt. While he did show significant improvement with the switch to turf, Can Group also seemed to relish the added distance and his pedigree wouldn’t seem to hinder the chances he could make the transition back to dirt. He’s an interesting contender at 6-1 on the morning line.

4. Are any of the longshots capable of running a big race at a big price? #3 Tizzy Indy (30-1) from the barn of upset-specialist Keith Desormeaux looks like one to use to spice up your exotic bets. Desormeaux and jockey James Graham have won at a 16% clip over the last two years for a small profit. Tizzy Indy returns to dirt, which I believe is his preferred surface, after finishing a distant third on grass. Prior to that, he won a one-mile maiden race and finished second in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race, both on dirt at Churchill Downs. He has a bit of tactical speed, so he should be able to rate just behind the pacesetters and get first jump on the deep closers.

5. How legit is Ethan Energy? Judging by some of the analysis I’ve read, #5 Ethan Energy looks to be the hype horse in the Lecomte coming off a dominant 5 ¼-length romp Dec. 23 on this track and at this distance. Luis Saez ships in for the mount for multiple Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, a combination that has won at 37% in 2023-’24 and has been especially profitable at Fair Grounds. There is much to like, but development in 3-year-olds is not always linear and the class test here in a graded stakes coming out of a maiden race is a major hurdle. I suspect he will get bet down to the 7-2 to 3-1 range, and at that price I prefer others.

Mike’s Trifecta: 1. Nash, 2. Track Phantom, 3. Tizzy Indy