Fall racing returns to Keeneland Race Course as the annual October season opens for its 17-raceday meet from Friday, Oct. 2 to Saturday, Oct. 24.  Keeneland will attract big fields and quality horses to offer something for every horseplayer, including top 2-year-old racing, great turf racing, and good value wagering and top-rung competition at all levels coming from the heart of the bluegrass in Lexington, Ky. Then, just days after the end of the fall meet, Keeneland will shift gears and play host to the 2026 Breeders’ Cup World Championships at the end of October.

Keeneland’s 22 fall stakes races will offer combined purses of $10.7 million. As the Breeders’ Cup site, stakes races early in the Keeneland fall season will take on added importance this year with eight Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” races early in the meet.

As good as Keeneland’s opening weekend will be, there will be an entire meet of incredible racing and wagering ahead for fans and handicappers to sink their teeth into. Let’s take a look at some trends, stats, and factors that can help you make you a winner at Keeneland this fall.

Keeneland fall leading trainer trends

Brad Cox at Keeneland (Anne M. Eberhardt/BloodHorse)

Brad Cox won the training title at last year’s corresponding Keeneland fall meet with 12 winners from 43 starters for a 28% win percentage. The meet was no fluke, either, because Cox had posted a similar 14-for-37 (38%) record in the fall of 2024 and has won every Keeneland fall meet training title since 2020.

Brendan Walsh and Steve Asmussen were tied for second on the 2025 Keeneland fall leaderboard with 11 wins apiece with Walsh clicking for a win percentage of 22% while Asmussen won 18%. Walsh also had a strong fall meet in 2024 with eight wins for 19%, while Asmussen’s 2025 fall performance marked a solid recovery over his 2024 fall season where he went just 2-for-38 (5%).

Some of the other trainers who had a good fall meet last year at Keeneland included Ken McPeek (8 wins, 15%), Wesley Ward (7 wins, 26%), and Todd Pletcher (6 wins, 33%). Chad Brown had some bad luck at the 2025 fall meet with just two winners from 20 starters but note that he hit the exacta with a total of nine of his 20 starters for 45%. Brown went 3-for-27 (11%) in the win column in fall of 2024 and had his best recent Keeneland fall meet in 2023 when he won seven times (30%). With Belmont reopened, he’s very likely to have more of a focus there this season.

Finally, handicappers also might be interested to know the barns that had disappointing fall seasons at Keeneland in 2025 and will need to do a lot better to rebound. That group included a lot of trainers you’d be surprised to find on this list such as Joe Sharp (1-for-29), Brian Lynch (1-for-20), Whit Beckman (1-for-17), David Jacobson (1-for-17), and Dallas Stewart (0-for-15).

Keeneland fall meet jockeys to watch

Irad Ortiz Jr. at 2025 Keeneland fall meet (Eclipse Sportswire)

The big news in the Keeneland jock’s room this fall is the expected return of Irad Ortiz Jr., who has missed more than a month after injuring his ankle at Saratoga. Irad should be ready for the Keeneland fall meet where he will attempt to defend his jockey title from fall 2025 when he won 25 races from 128 mounts (20%).

Last year, Irad took the jockey title away from Tyler Gaffalione, who had won the corresponding 2024 Keeneland fall meet when he edged Luis Saez 24 wins to 20. When Irad Ortiz switched his tack from New York to Kentucky last year, the move had monumental impact on the jock’s room, and that impact should be felt again as Irad returns from injury. Gaffalione finished second at last year’s Keeneland fall meet with 17 wins (13%) followed closely by Jose Ortiz who had 16 wins (13%) and Saez with 15 wins (13%). Gaffalione was leading rider at the Churchill Downs September meet with 17 wins to outpace Saez with 13 wins and Jose Ortiz with 12 wins. Expect a spirited four-way battle for the Keeneland jockey title this season between Irad Ortiz Jr., Jose Ortiz, Gaffalione, and Saez

Several other jockeys are expected to win their share of races at Keeneland this fall, including Brian Hernandez Jr., who missed the entire 2025 Keeneland fall meet with an injury but now is back in mid-season form and had seven wins from his 51 mounts (14%) in September at Churchill. New York-based Flavien Prat will be at Keeneland at times after winning seven races (15%) at last fall’s meet. He made the most of his days riding at Churchill Downs this September with a record of 7-for-23 (30%).

The next group of Keeneland jockeys will include riders like Ben Curtis (6 wins, 13% last fall), Edgar Morales (5 wins, 7% at Keeneland last fall, and 8 wins, 16% at Churchill in September), Jaime Torres (3 wins, 10% last fall), and Francisco Arrieta (4 wins, 9% last fall). Rafael Bejarano was a top 10 rider that the Churchill September meet (7-for-40, 18%), and Axel Concepcion had six wins for 12% last fall and finished strong at Churchill in September to end that meet with six wins (10%). Yedzit Hazlewood has already made a positive impact on the Kentucky jockey colony since arriving this summer and will get his first taste of Keeneland this season

Keeneland main track trends

Keeneland’s race meet comes and goes fast, so the time is now for handicappers to start brushing up on the things you need to know to cash tickets during the fall season.

Horses race on Keeneland main track at 2025 fall meet (Eclipse Sportswire)

Let’s start by looking at sprints in order to find the preferred Keeneland main track running styles. In dirt sprints, Keeneland definitely is one of the tracks where you don’t want to bet on horses coming from too far off the pace. Horses benefit by staying within four lengths of the front, and speed horses on the lead or within a length of the pace have the best chances to win.

In 136 dirt sprints run at the last two Keeneland meets (2025 fall meet and 2026 spring meet), speed horses did best even though they did not do as well as the year before. Horses on or close to the pace won 62 of the 136 sprints to account for 45.6% of the races, stalkers racing between 1-4 lengths off the early pace won 54 of the races (39.7%), and closers more than four lengths off the pace won just 20 times (14.7%). At the previous two meets, speed horses won 52%, stalkers won 32%, and late runners won 16%.

With an average dirt sprint field size of 8.34 runners per race, there was little or no favoritism in terms of inside, middle, or outside post positions over the last two years.

Dirt routes at Keeneland over the course of the last year have also been fair in terms of post positions with an average field size of 7.7 runners per race (down from 8.19 starters per race the year before). An analysis of the preferred running styles in dirt routes also shows a Keeneland bias against late runners just as it does in sprints. Over the last year, speed horses won 28 of the 65 dirt routes to account for 43% of the races, stalkers won 26 races (40%), and closers won 11 races (17%). Two years ago, the horses on or close to the lead won 40 of 70 dirt routes (57%), stalkers won 17 times (24%), and closers won 14 races to account for 20% (percentages don’t add up to 100% due to one head heat for win).

Keeneland fall turf tips

One of the staples of the quality day-to-day racing at Keeneland is high-quality turf racing featuring full, competitive fields with an average field size of 10.43 in routes.

Top-notch turf racing at Keeneland (Eclipse Sportswire)

Turf routes at Keeneland over the last year have not at all been kind to front-runners, which is just the opposite of the results on the main track. The winning track profile in Keeneland turf routes generally gives a running style preference to off-the-pace horses. In 70 turf routes run at the 2025 fall and 2026 spring meets (there was a dead heat for first in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes in April), speedy horses on or close to the pace won just 14 times to account for 20%. Horses with the stalking running style did the best on the Keeneland grass with wins in 32 of the 70 races to account for 45.7% of the wins. Closers won 25 times to account for a solid 35.7% of the races. These stats were not too far off from two years ago when speed horses won 24%, stalkers won 39%, and late runners won 37% of the races.

In terms of post positions, the turf course has played extremely fair in turf routes for horses from inside, middle, and outside posts. This trend has held steady over the course of the last four years. In turf sprints there is a small disadvantage for posts seven and up.

The number of turf sprints run at Keeneland continues to go up and up. There were 32 turf sprints run at the last two meets, which was up from 26 turf sprints the two prior seasons. Early speed horses tended to show the best results in the 32 turf sprints the last year with 13 winning speed horses in the 32 races (41%), followed in effectiveness by stalkers who won 10 of the races (31%), and closers who won nine of the turf sprints for 28%. Clearly, you can win these Keeneland races from off the pace, but early speed does indeed come in handy.

Hopefully these tips and trends from Keeneland can help you have a successful fall season in 2026. Best of luck and enjoy the meet along with the 2026 Breeders’ Cup this fall at Keeneland.