Saturday’s $500,000 Frizette Stakes at Belmont Park is an important prep race in advance of the Oct. 30 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. As a result, the Grade 1 race typically draws a quality field of promising 2-year-old fillies.
This year’s renewal is no exception. Seven fillies were entered the one-mile dirt race, and all have shown talent and potential. It wouldn’t be shocking to see any of the entrants visit the winner’s circle, but I rank #4 Libby Lloyd as the most likely winner.
A daughter of acclaimed stallion Into Mischief, Libby Lloyd impressed when kicking off her career in a maiden special weight dashing three-quarters of a mile at Saratoga. She set quarter-mile fractions of :22.37 and :46.18, then powered away under moderate urging from jockey Flavien Prat to prevail by 10 lengths.
Libby Lloyd ran her final quarter-mile in a solid :24.62 to reach the finish line in the sharp time of 1:10.80. Her finishing speed suggests she’ll handle stretching out to one mile in the Frizette without issue, so there’s a strong chance Libby Lloyd will make her stakes debut a winning one.
Unfortunately, Libby Lloyd will almost certainly be a short price in the betting, and a win bet is unlikely to yield a particularly enticing payoff. So rather than settle for a small potential payday, let’s aim bigger and play Libby Lloyd on top of an exacta (which requires selecting the top two finishers in order) and perhaps a couple of trifectas (which necessitates selecting the top three finishers in order).
For second place, I like the chances of #7 Velora, a promising filly bred in New York. She’s gone 2-for-2 competing against fellow New York-breds in sprints over three-quarters of a mile at Saratoga, winning a maiden special weight race by 4 3/4 lengths and the Seeking the Ante Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths. Hot jockey Manny Franco is named to ride.
#6 Rum Twist, triumphant by 5 3/4 lengths in a recent maiden special weight race sprinting seven-eighths of a mile at Saratoga, is another logical contender. And don’t overlook #1 Revenge of the Sis, who overcame a slow start to rally and finish third in the one-mile Sorority Stakes at Monmouth Park. That effort came in Revenge of the Sis’s first start, so she may benefit from the experience and improve meaningfully in her second race in the Frizette.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 exacta: 4 with 7
What to say at the betting window: Belmont Park, Race 9, $10 exacta 4 with 7
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$10 exacta: 4 with 7
What to say at the betting window: Belmont Park, Race 9, $10 exacta 4 with 7
$4 trifecta: 4 with 7 with 1,6 (total cost: $8)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont Park, Race 9, $4 trifecta 4 with 7 with 1,6
$6 trifecta: 4 with 1,6 with 7 (total cost: $12)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont Park, Race 9, $6 trifecta 4 with 1,6 with 7
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
