Seven horses will vie for a “Win and You’re In” berth to the FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile presented by Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund in Saturday’s $750,000 Fourstardave Stakes, a one mile on Grade 1 turf race at Saratoga.
The Fourstardave field is packed with pace. Five of the entrants have led from start to finish in one or more recent races. As a result, I believe #5 Deterministic has the best chance to prevail.
Deterministic is one of the five pace players, but even though he led all the way to win the 2025 Fort Marcy Stakes, 2025 Resorts World Casino Manhattan Stakes, and 2026 Fort Marcy, he isn’t a need-the-lead type. In the 2025 Fourstardave, he tracked the pace in second place before taking over to score a comfortable victory. And back in 2024, he launched midfield rallies to win the Virginia Derby and Hill Prince Stakes.
Deterministic will break from post No. 5 in the Fourstardave, outside of the other four speed horses. This will give jockey Kendrick Carmouche an opportunity to judge how the pace is unfolding to his inside and position Deterministic accordingly. If the pace is blazing, Deterministic can rate behind the leaders. If the tempo is slower than expected, he can press forward to challenge.
Even if Deterministic gets caught up in a fast pace, it might not affect him. On June 6 at Saratoga, Deterministic earned a repeat victory in the Manhattan by pressing fast quarter-mile fractions of :22.99, :47.01, and 1:09.83 on his way to victory in a course-record time of 1:50.50 for 1 3/16 miles.
Deterministic’s ability to thrive even when pressing fast fractions, coupled with his favorable post draw and willingness to rate off the pace if needed, makes him the horse to beat in the Fourstardave. He enters off five consecutive wins and can secure a sixth on Saturday.
Whether you’re betting the Fourstardave on a small budget ($10) or a somewhat larger budget ($30), we recommend placing a win bet on Deterministic. Bettors playing on a $30 budget are also advised to bet an exacta, which requires selecting the top two finishers in order.
In the exacta, play Deterministic on top and use Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes winner #3 Zulu Kingdom and Grade 1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes winner #1 Rhetorical for second place.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #5 Deterministic
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $10 to win on 5
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$20 to win on #5 Deterministic
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $20 to win on 5
$5 exacta: 5 with 1,3 (total cost: $10)
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $5 exacta 5 with 1,3
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
