Two of the last three Longines Kentucky Oaks winners prepped in the Fasig-Tipton Fair Grounds Oaks and seven of the last 18 Kentucky Oaks winners came out of the race. Safe to say the Fair Grounds race is an influential steppingstone to victory at Churchill Downs May 1.
The 1 1/16-mile race March 21 drew seven entrants and these 3-year-olds fillies are separated by only seven points in terms of best Beyer Speed Figure, although the range is slightly higher in terms of Brisnet speed ratings and 14 points on the Equibase Speed Figure scale. Three come into the race off wins, three off second-place finishes, and #3 Maximum Offer was fourth but only beaten by a length in her most recent start in the Feb. 6 Martha Washington Stakes.
On paper, it looks like a race to go value hunting, and that would mean playing against undefeated Fasig-Tipton Rachel Alexandra Stakes winner #5 Bella Ballerina. The 7-5 morning-line favorite comes into the race off a win at this Grade 2 level, track, and distance. The Godolphin homebred has won all three of her starts, she’s a half-sister to 2023 Kentucky Oaks winner and champion 3-year-old filly Pretty Mischievous, and she’s considered a top candidate for this year’s Kentucky Oaks. On the other hand, she’ll be very short odds and not much separates this group of fillies in terms of speed figures.
I’ll take a shot with #7 Love and Trust (9-2), who improved significantly when stretching out from a sprint to a 1 1/16-mile maiden race for trainer Cherie DeVaux Feb. 17 at Fair Grounds, leading from start to finish in a 3 ½-length win under Jose Ortiz. There are multiple runners in the field with tactical speed but no need-the-lead types, so I expect she might be able to control the pace or relax just in behind the leader. Her final quarter-mile in :24.49 in her most recent win was strong for her first try around two turns.
The big key for Love and Trust is maturity. Being lightly raced, she has room to improve but her first victory was purely due to natural talent. She ducked out leaving the starting gate and bumped with several opponents before settling to set the pace. Love and Trust then started lugging in toward the rail when well clear in the stretch before swerving out wildly when Ortiz tried to correct her with the crop. Yet she still won easily. She’s a work in progress but there is significant upside, and DeVaux and Ortiz are winning at 30% at Fair Grounds this meet.
I try to keep things simple, so my main strategy will be to play Love and Trust to win. If you prefer exotic bets, key Love and Trust on top of a trifecta using Bella Ballerina, Rachel Alexandra runner-up #4 Luv Your Neighbor (7-2), and stakes winner #6 Life of Joy (4-1) for second and third.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #7 Love and Trust
What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, Race 11, $10 to win on 7
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$18 to win on #7 Love and Trust
What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, Race 11, $18 to win on 7
$2 trifecta: 7 with 4,5,6 with 4,5,6 (total cost: $12)
What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, Race 11, $2 trifecta 7 with 4,5,6 with 4,5,6
