Sunday’s running of the $1 million, Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park promises to be an excellent race. There are several proven graded stakes horses among the 10 entrants, though one – #1 Bravaro – is expected to scratch and run in Saturday’s Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes instead.

Which horse is most likely to prevail in the 2026 Rebel? We’ve analyzed the recent history of the 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifier and identified half a dozen historical trends you can use to sort through the contenders:

Favor horses with early speed

Horses with early speed perform best in the Rebel. Five of the last 15 winners (33%) were leading after half a mile, and 13 of the last 15 winners (87%) were racing in the front half of the field. Another, Will Take Charge, closed from precisely midfield after half a mile.

To look at it another way, 12 of the last 15 Rebel winners (80%) were racing within 1 3/4 lengths of the lead after half a mile.

Don’t dismiss longshots for first and second place

Longshots often exceed expectations in the Rebel. Across the last 15 editions, we’ve seen Coal Battle (11.90-1), Confidence Game (18.50-1), Un Ojo (75.40-1), and Will Take Charge (28-1) spring double-digit upsets, while Common Defense (27.20-1), Ethereal Road (15.80-1), Hozier (18.80-1), Excession (82.60-1), Sonneteer (112.30-1), and Optimizer (27.90-1) have finished second at big prices.

Bob Baffert is the dominant trainer

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert excels in the Rebel. Since 2010, he’s scored eight wins, five seconds, and one third from 17 starters, which works out to a 50% win rate and an 81% in-the-money rate.

A recent prep race is beneficial

It takes a good horse to win the Rebel in their first start of the season. Only two horses have done so since 2012: Timberlake (2024) and American Pharoah (2015). Both were Grade 1 winners with proven talent.

Otherwise, horses who raced in either January and/or February have won 13 of the last 15 editions of the Rebel.

Be wary betting horses who prepped at Oaklawn

You might expect horses with experience competing at Oaklawn to perform best in the Rebel. But that isn’t always the case. Only four of the last 15 winners (26%) exited a race at Oaklawn. The other 11 prepped at Santa Anita Park (six times), Fair Grounds (twice), and Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, or Aqueduct (once apiece).

Proven route racers have an advantage

While it’s not impossible for horses to win the Rebel while stretching out beyond sprint distances for the first time, 12 of the last 15 winners (80%) had previously contested at least one race over one mile or farther.

Conclusions

Litmus Test (BENOIT photo)

None of the entrants in the 2026 Rebel Stakes match all of the trends we’ve outlined above, but #2 Litmus Test comes reasonably close.

Litmus Test is a Bob Baffert trainee with plenty of early speed. Last year, he set the pace when finishing third in the 1 1/16-mile, Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, and he tracked the pace in second place on his way to winning the 1 1/16-mile, Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. The Rebel will mark his first start at Oaklawn Park.

There are two small knocks against Litmus Test. One, he won’t be a longshot, but that’s okay – short-priced horses do score their fair share of Rebel wins. Two, he hasn’t raced since Dec. 13, but his strong performances against graded stakes competition last year suggest he has the talent to overcome his 2 ½-month break.

Good luck, and enjoy the race!