Barnes Poised for a Winning Effort in Malibu Stakes

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Malibu Stakes, Santa Anita Park, gambling, handicapping, Equibase, Modus Bestia, Spenard, Madaket Road, blinkers, Speedy Wilson, Midland Money, Berlin Wall, Smooth Cruisein, Cornucopian, Barnes, Goal Oriented, Bob Baffert, horse racing, ABR
Barnes, pictured winning the Perryville Stakes Oct. 18, is one of five scheduled starters in the Dec. 28 Malibu Stakes trained by Bob Baffert, and is Ben Kudla’s pick to win the prestigious race. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The historic $300,000, Grade 1 Malibu Stakes, a staple of year-end racing in North America, drew a field of 10 for its 2025 renewal and is rescheduled to be run on Sunday, Dec. 28 at Santa Anita Park. This storied race has featured past winners such as Mizzen Mast, Twirling Candy, Shared Belief, Flightline, and many other standouts. Five of the listed 10 starters are trained by Bob Baffert.

weekend Television schedule

Friday, Dec. 26: 3-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, Dec. 27: 2:30-6 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, Dec. 28: 2:30-6 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Here’s a look at the field from starting from the inside (rail) post position. Modus Bestia drew the rail for trainer Richard Baltas and enters in top form after winning his last two starts over Del Mar’s dirt track. Spenard ships in from Turf Paradise and will have veteran rider Tyler Baze in the saddle. The Spun to Run colt will be making his Santa Anita debut as well as his first start the Malibu’s distance of seven furlongs. Madaket Road will make his seventh consecutive graded stakes appearance for Bob Baffert with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for the first time since he guided the colt to a runner up finish in the Pat Day Mile Stakes Presented by SAP on the Kentucky Derby undercard at Churchill Downs. Speedy Wilson is no stranger to the winner’s circle, posting four victories from eight career starts and a record of 3-for-3 at seven furlongs, and regular rider Armando Ayuso retains the mount. Midland Money won his career debut by six lengths at Santa Anita in June 2024, resurfaced more than a year later at Saratoga to win first off the long layoff, and enters off two consecutive runner-up finishes at the allowance optional claiming level. Berlin Wall comes in off a 7 ¾-length victory last time out at Del Mar and has finished in the top three in all four of his career starts at Santa Anita. Trainer Karen Headley sends out Smooth Cruisein for his sixth career graded stakes start, with regular rider Kyle Frey aboard. Cornucopian, the most lightly raced contender in the Malibu field, will be making his first start since April 27 for Baffert. The $1.1 million yearling purchase will be ridden by Flavien Prat for the first time. Barnes, a $3.2 million yearling purchase named after Bob Baffert’s longtime assistant Jimmy Barnes, will be making his first start since dominating the Perryville Stakes by 8 ¼ lengths at Keeneland in October. Goal Oriented rounds out the field and Baffert’s quintet. He will be making his return to Santa Anita for the first time since winning his career debut by 3 ¼ lengths, which also marked his most recent start at a sprint distance.

Analysis and Main Contenders:

Based on his rout in the Perryville Stakes, there is little doubt about the ability of Barnes, particularly at the Malibu’s seven-furlong distance. Expectations have been high for this Into Mischief colt from the get-go. Barnes debuted in November 2024 at Churchill Downs with a narrow maiden special weight victory before shipping back to Santa Anita, where he drew off to win the San Vicente Stakes by 5 ½ lengths, covering seven furlongs on the dirt in 1:22.15 in January of this year. Following that impressive performance, Barnes has made five consecutive graded stakes appearances. He made his route debut in the San Felipe Stakes in March, setting the pace before being caught late by eventual Preakness Stakes winner and Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets runner-up Journalism. He then stretched out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time in the Santa Anita Derby and finished a disappointing fifth, again behind Journalism. After a brief freshening, Barnes resurfaced 3 ½ months later back at his preferred seven-furlong distance in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes at Saratoga in August, where he finished a game third by just 1 ½ lengths behind Patch Adams and Captain Cook. Then in September, he broke last in the Gallant Bob Stakes at Parx Racing and, despite a late rally, finished fourth by 3 ¾ lengths while cutting back to six furlongs. Last time out, Barnes returned to seven furlongs in the Perryville and put it all together, earning a 105 Equibase Speed Figure for his authoritative victory. Jose Ortiz was aboard for both the H. Allen Jerkens and the Perryville, a notable positive given his apparent affinity with the colt. Since that effort, Barnes has trained sharply, highlighted by a bullet six furlongs in 1:12.80 in his most recent workout at Santa Anita on Dec. 20. He checks a lot of boxes here: he returns to Santa Anita where he won the San Vicente, and he’s back at seven furlongs where he has a record of 2-0-1 in three starts. Based on his 3-1 morning-line odds, Barnes offers value despite the attention he is likely to attract.

Midland Money (Adam Coglianese/NYRA)

Midland Money brings plenty of intrigue into the Malibu having posted two wins and two seconds in five starts, and will add blinkers after racing without them in his last two starts for Bob Baffert. Midland Money made his career debut in a dirt sprint maiden special weight race during June 2024 at Santa Anita and was much the best, drawing off to win by six lengths. Following that impressive debut, he was sidelined for more than a year before resurfacing in August of this year, where he returned in sharp form with a 3 ¼ length allowance victory at Saratoga, earning a 103 Equibase Speed Figure off the long break. Just 20 days later, Midland Money made his graded stakes debut in the aforementioned H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes and finished sixth. Since then, he has posted two runner-up finishes at the allowance optional claiming level at Del Mar and Santa Anita, earning a 107 Equibase figure in each start. Despite not being able to find the winner’s circle last time out, Midland Money rallied from last and finished strong, closing ground with every stride but coming up just short in the 6 ½-furlong race. Adding a half-furlong Saturday in the Malibu, combined with the return to blinkers, could be exactly what this Shancelot colt needs. Midland Money also ranks first in late pace rating with a lofty 126.0, while leading the field in average speed with a 103 Equibase figure and average class of a 106. Jockey Juan Hernandez has teamed up with Midland Money for one win (his debut) and two seconds. With tactical versatility and strong finishing ability, he is more than capable of delivering a surprise performance on Sunday.

Cornucopian will be making just his fourth career start to close out his 3-year-old campaign for trainer Bob Baffert and will surprisingly make his Santa Anita debut in the Malibu. He earned a career-best 108 Equibase Speed Figure when dominating a six-furlong maiden special weight at Oaklawn Park in his career debut back in February. One month later, Cornucopian stretched out to 1 1/8 miles for the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, where he was caught in a taxing speed duel and faded to finish fourth. Following the Arkansas Derby, Cornucopian was sent to Aqueduct and cut back to one mile in an allowance optional claiming race where he pressed the pace, tired, but still held second as the odds-on favorite. Cornucopian returns in the Malibu off an eight-month layoff and has been training sharply at Santa Anita leading into this start. Bob Baffert has been effective in graded stakes races with horses returning from layoffs of more than 180 days, winning at a 25% clip over the past three years with a strong 69% in-the-money from 16 starts. Flavien Prat picks up the mount for the first time, a significant positive given that Prat and Baffert have teamed up to win 42% of their races together over the past year, combining for 11 wins from 26 starts and 81% top-three finishes. Another notable angle is that he’ll have blinkers removed Saturday, for the first time in his career. Baffert has excelled with this move in graded stakes races, winning at 37% over the last three years totaling seven wins from 19 starts and 63% top-three finishes. While winning the Malibu off the layoff presents a stiff challenge, Cornucopian appears well positioned to show his ability and make his presence felt on Sunday.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is Modus Bestia (109), Spenard (98), Madaket Road (109), Speedy Wilson (105), Berlin Wall (103), Smooth Cruisein (104), and Goal Oriented (110).

Win Contenders in Preference Order:

Barnes

Midland Money

Cornucopian

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