Saturday’s $1 million Pennsylvania Derby is the signature race at Parx Racing and headlines a 15-race card that features seven other stakes and a second marquee race in the $1 million Cotillion Stakes for 3-year-old fillies.
The Pennsylvania Derby is a final shot for talented 3-year-olds to pick up a Grade 1 win in a two-turn race against horses of their own age, and the deep field of 10 was no doubt due in part to the absence of division stars Sovereignty and Journalism. Indeed, Pennsylvania Derby entrants Baeza, Goal Oriented, Gosger, and Magnitude have all finished in the top three behind those two classic winners in Grade 1 races.
Read on for Pennsylvania Derby trifecta betting strategies from the team at America’s Best Racing, and use ABR’s handy Gambling Calculator to structure your bets.
Mike Curry:
There is an abundance of speed in the Pennsylvania Derby, so I’m happy that the three horses I like for my trifecta have been effective from off the pace. I really think Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve/Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets third-place finisher #8 Baeza and Preakness Stakes runner-up #9 Gosger are standouts in this field. They both have performed consistently against elite competition through the spring into the summer and I’d be surprised if the winner does not come from that pair. I’ll try to beat both #3 Magnitude and #6 Goal Oriented in the race. I think they could be compromised by a hot pace and fade late. Since I’m using two of the three favorites, I won’t spread much here. I’ll round out my trifecta by using improving Curlin Stakes runner-up #1 So Sandy in the second and third slots. The Omaha Beach colt has run two very good races (a win and the Curlin second) at this 1 1/8-mile distance and looks like he figured things out this spring for trainer Cherie DeVaux.
Strategy for a $20 budget:
$10 trifecta: #8 Baeza and #9 Gosger with #1 So Sandy, #8 Baeza, and #9 Gosger, with #1 So Sandy, #8 Baeza, and #9 Gosger ($40)
Noel Michaels:
The Pennsylvania Derby features an evenly matched field with several major contenders but really the race has the look of the long overdue Grade 1 coming out party for #8 Baeza, who distinguished himself in third-place finishes in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. In six races so far this year, only Sovereignty, Journalism, and Rodriguez were able to beat him; there’s no shame in that. None of those rivals showed up for this race and Saturday finally looks like Baeza’s day. Another horse that has been knocking on the door is #9 Gosger, who finished second behind Journalism in both the Preakness Stakes and the Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes. A fast pace seems very likely in this race and Gosger will be finishing fast after getting a cozy stalking trip. Which version of #3 Magnitude will we see on Saturday? He earned big speed figures in wire-to-wire wins in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes and the $250,000 Iowa Derby but then was nowhere to be found at the finish last time in Saratoga’s Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes. If we see good Magnitude instead of bad Magnitude, we could be looking at an upset.
Strategy for a $50 budget:
$5 trifecta box: #3 Magnitude, #8 Baeza, #9 Gosger ($30)
$10 trifecta: #8 Baeza with #3 Magnitude and #9 Gosger, with #3 Magnitude and #9 Gosger ($20)
Dan Tordjman:
Although he hasn't won a race since early May, #6 Goal Oriented opened my eyes with his performance in the Haskell Stakes. His result in that race, a third-place finish, hardly tells the whole story. Goal Oriented broke sharply, as he always does, and remained close to a very hot early pace. Still, he was able to conserve enough energy to put up a massive fight against both #9 Gosger and Journalism (both of whom passed Goal Oriented in the final strides of the race). While Gosger returns for the Pennsylvania Derby, Goal Oriented feels to me like the one who has found a new dimension and who could potentially take another step forward. That said, here’s how I'm playing the trifecta.
Strategy for a $55 budget:
$5 trifecta: #6 Goal Oriented with #8 Baeza, #9 Gosger, and #10 Mo Plex with #8 Baeza, #9 Gosger, and #10 Mo Plex ($30)
$1 trifecta: #6 Goal Oriented, #9 Gosger, and #10 Mo Plex with #6 Goal Oriented, #9 Gosger, and #10 Mo Plex with #1 So Sandy, #4 David of Athens, #6 Goal Oriented, #8 Baeza, #9 Gosger, and #10 Mo Plex ($24)
Daily Double
KEYSTONE DOUBLE 5-8
KEYSTONE DOUBLE 5-8
$60
Superfecta
8-3-6-1
8-3-6-1
$100
Daily Double
KEYSTONE DOUBLE 5-8
KEYSTONE DOUBLE 5-8
$60
Superfecta
8-3-6-1
8-3-6-1
$100
