Horseplayers planning to bet Saturday’s $500,000 Grade 2 Flower Bowl Stakes at Saratoga Race Course are advised to keep a close eye on the weather.
The Flower Bowl is slated to take place going 1 3/8 miles on turf. But there’s rain in the forecast for Saratoga this week. If enough falls to dampen the turf course from “firm” to “good,” “yielding,” or “soft,” that could have a significant impact on the outcome of the race.
Two entrants, in particular, could be affected. #4 La Mehana would likely relish a yielding turf course. She’s a capable competitor on firm turf — at Aqueduct last fall, she won the 1 3/8-mile, Grade 3 Waya Stakes with a strong late charge. But she ran out of her skin when tackling yielding turf in the 1 1/2-mile, Grade 2 Glens Falls Stakes at Saratoga last month, dominating by 8 3/4 lengths with a career-best 103 Brisnet Speed Rating. That’s easily the highest number in the Flower Bowl field.
In contrast, #7 Be Your Best is a firm-turf specialist who has won four graded stakes at distances from one mile to 1 3/8 miles, including the Grade 1 Gamely Stakes. The speedy mare is a force to reckon with on firm turf, but she completely misfired over a rain-dampened “good” course in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes three starts back, tiring to finish last of eight.
So how should you bet the Flower Bowl? We’ll recommend two different strategies, one for if the turf is firm and the other for if the course comes up good, yielding, or soft.
In both cases, we’ll key La Mehana on top. Her affinity for racing 1 3/8 miles and farther should give her an edge over Be Your Best regardless of the condition of the turf course. Be Your Best just barely held on to win the 2024 Long Island Stakes by a nose, so 1 3/8 miles might be a little farther than her best distance.
If the turf is firm, we’ll use Be Your Best underneath in a trifecta, which requires selecting the top three finishers in order. If the course is damp, we’ll exclude Be Your Best in favor of fillies and mares like #1 Marksman Queen, #2 Amber Cascade, and #8 Bellezza.
We also suggest betting twice as much ($40 instead of $20) if the course is damp, since that will boost our confidence in La Mehana.
$20 wagering strategy if the turf is firm:
$11 to win on #4 La Mehana
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $11 to win on 4
$1.50 trifecta: 4 with 2,8 with 1,2,7,8 ($9)
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $1.50 trifecta 4 with 2,8 with 1,2,7,8
$40 wagering strategy if the turf is good, yielding, or soft:
$22 to win on #4 La Mehana
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $22 to win on 4
$3 trifecta: 4 with 1,2,8 with 1,2,8 ($18)
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $3 trifecta 4 with 1,2,8 with 1,2,8
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
