Not many bettors will expect an upset in Saturday’s $500,000 Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun at Saratoga. The majority of the win pool figures to be wagered on #5 Sovereignty, conqueror of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets.

But might the Jim Dandy be a perfect opportunity for #1 Baeza to turn the tables?

Baeza finished third in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont. In both races, he was sluggish early on before rallying late. He was no match for Sovereignty on either occasion, though he didn’t get the cleanest run around the far turn on the Kentucky Derby and was 1 ¾ lengths behind the winner in the end.

Sovereignty (Eclipse Sportswire)

Sovereignty was at the peak of his powers for the Kentucky Derby and Belmont. Now he’s targeting the Aug. 23 Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes at Saratoga as his next major goal, and he’s using the Jim Dandy as a prep race. The last time Sovereignty used a prep race to build toward a greater goal, he finished second in the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa five weeks before the Kentucky Derby.

Sovereignty’s workouts leading up to the Jim Dandy have been solid, but his regimen pales compared to the flashy series of post-Belmont exercises posted by Baeza. The latter has been training up a storm in California, posting five swift workouts in the span of a month. Most notably, he blazed half a mile in :46.40 on June 27, the fastest of 66 morning workouts at that distance.

These fast workouts may sharpen Baeza’s early speed and help him avoid racing sluggishly during the opening stages of the Jim Dandy. Take note of the fact that Baeza wasn’t a late runner early in his career; in fact, his maiden victory came after pressing the early pace.

Since Grade 3 Ohio Derby winner #3 Mo Plex is the only obvious frontrunner in the Jim Dandy field, any improvement to Baeza’s early speed should allow him to work out a perfect trip pressing the pace in the second place. If Baeza improves, and if Sovereignty regresses off his Kentucky Derby and Belmont efforts, we might just see an upset.

We recommend playing the Jim Dandy accordingly. First, bet an exacta using Baeza on top of Sovereignty. Then, if your budget allows, add a couple of superfecta tickets counting on Mo Plex to finish either third or fourth among the other three contenders (#2 Sandman and #4 Hill Road).

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 exacta: 1 with 5

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $10 exacta 1 with 5

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$20 exacta: 1 with 5

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $20 exacta 1 with 5

$2.50 superfecta: 1 with 5 with 3 with 2,4 (total cost: $5)

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $2.50 superfecta 1 with 5 with 3 with 2,4

$2.50 superfecta: 1 with 5 with 2,4 with 3 (total cost: $5)

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $2.50 superfecta 1 with 5 with 2,4 with 3

Good luck, and enjoy the race!