The 150^th running of the $2 million, Grade 1 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico will be run without Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve winner Sovereignty, who is skipping the race and is expected to run in the Belmont Stakes in three weeks. Nevertheless, the race drew a strong field of nine set to go 1 3/16 miles led by Kentucky Derby runner-up Journalism.

Journalism, winner of the Santa Anita Derby, will be joined by fellow Kentucky Derby graduates Sandman, who rallied from 18^th to seventh, and American Promise, who pressed the pace during the opening half mile before fading to 16^th. Among the other contenders, Goal Oriented won a race earlier on the Derby Day card and although he is moving way up in class to run in a stakes race for the first time, could give trainer Bob Baffert his ninth career Preakness win, adding to his record total. Heart of Honor, who missed by a nose in the United Arab Emirates Derby Presented by Jumeirah in April and who was on the list of possible Kentucky Derby entrants last month, enters the Preakness a bit fresher than the horses who raced just two weeks ago. Other new shooters include Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes winner Gosger and Federico Tesio Stakes winner Pay Billy, who both have won two races in a row. Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes third-place finisher River Thames, who was beaten a neck by Sovereignty in the Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes in March, is another contender. Clever Again won the $200,000 Hot Springs Stakes at the end of March in wire-to-wire fashion and may once again be the horse the rest of the Preakness field has to catch in order to win.

Win contenders:

Goal Oriented at Pimlico. (Jerry Dzierwinski/Maryland Jockey Club )

After having watched the replays of the most recent races of all nine Preakness entrants, I believe Goal Oriented is the one most likely to succeed. Bob Baffert won his first Preakness in 1997 with Silver Charm and his most recent win came two years ago with National Treasure. Goal Oriented is the most lightly-raced horse in the field, having run just twice, but his most recent win in the third race on Kentucky Derby day tells us all we need to know about this talented colt. In that race, Goal Oriented came out of the gate in fourth in a 10-horse field but moved up easily though not in a rushed fashion, making the lead and then continuing in front at every point of call. He was never going to be caught. The 109 Equibase Speed Figure Goal Oriented earned in the race was higher than the 103 figure Sovereignty earned winning the Kentucky Derby later that same day, and since the Preakness will be only the third start of his career and second around two turns, Goal Oriented could run even better. Drawing the rail for the Preakness gives jockey Flavien Prat lots of options in terms of the early pace, as Goal Oriented is not a need-the-lead type as evidenced by his come-from-behind debut win at Santa Anita in April. Considering Clever Again won the Hot Springs Stakes leading from start to finish I suspect he will get to the front at the start. Additionally, early speed is the best weapon American Promise has to offer and so he too may go for the lead after the gate opens. That puts Goal Oriented in second or third but on the ground-saving rail, allowing him to draft off the early leaders and pass them when necessary to gain the win.

Clever Again is tied for the second-fastest last race number in the field with Heart of Honor after earning a 108 Equibase Speed Figure winning the Hot Springs Stakes on March 30. That was his second win in as many starts this year, both times leading from start to finish. Jose Ortiz has been aboard for both wins and rides Clever Again in the Preakness so the same tactics will likely be used again. With few of the horses inside Clever Again (who drew post position eight) having shown a desire to lead early in a race, the colt should be able to get to the front before the first turn unless Goal Oriented or American Promise have other ideas. Similar to Goal Oriented having run faster than Sovereignty on Derby Day, Clever Again’s 108 Equibase figure in the Hot Springs Stakes was higher than the 104 Sandman earned winning the Arkansas Derby the day prior at Oaklawn Park, and his pattern suggests further improvement. Trainer Steve Asmussen won the Preakness in 2007 with Curlin and in 2009 with Rachel Alexandra and has a strong chance to earn his third win if Clever Again can get to the front easily and control the early tempo.

Journalism at Pimlico. (Eclipse Sportswire)

It is quite difficult to rank Journalism as the third most likely contender to win this year’s Preakness, particularly considering how visually impressive his Kentucky Derby effort was. After moving up quickly from 10^th to third over the course of the third quarter mile while making up seven and a half lengths on the leader, Journalism was a half a length behind the front runner and continuing to accelerate. Put another way, in the Derby at the distance where the shorter Preakness ends, Journalism was just behind Sovereignty and well clear of the next horse. With Sovereignty passing this race and at this distance, Journalism would be no surprise to win the Preakness.

Honorable mention goes to Heart of Honor, who has never finished worse than second in six races, including when coming a nose shy of winning the United Arab Emirates Derby on April 5. Although Admire Daytona, who won that race, finished last of 19 in the Kentucky Derby, Heart of Honor may run better in this spot. He showed a lot of mental and physical ability battling with Admire Daytona and another horse for the final quarter-mile and was rallying at the end to miss by inches. Another horse worth noting is Sandman, who may also benefit from the cutback in distance, particularly as the 104 Equibase figure he earned winning the Arkansas Derby was very good and his rally from 18^th to seventh in the Kentucky Derby after a bit of traffic trouble and going wide was also a pretty good effort, all things considered.

The rest of the Preakness Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures is American Promise (102), Gosger (96), Pay Billy (93) and River Thames (103).

Win contenders:

Goal Oriented

Clever Again

Journalism

Contenders to finish in the money:

Heart of Honor

Sandman