Whenever someone asks “why should I bet on horse racing?” a great answer is the potential for massive returns on a small investment, and the trifecta is a wager that offers this opportunity.

My colleague Dan Tordjman outlined his first time hitting the Kentucky Derby trifecta in the first installment of this blog series. I was lucky enough to hit the Derby trifecta three times in four years in 2012, 2014, and 2015 (none since, of course!).  

For the uninitiated a trifecta is simply the selection of the first three finishers in a horse race. You can bet a straight trifecta in which horses “A”, “B”, and “C”, finish in exact A-B-C order, first, second and third. You can also bet a “trifecta box” which allows you to cash your ticket if those same three horses finish first thru third in any order. So, C-B-A would still win, C-A-B would be a winner, as would B-C-A and so on.

The highest trifecta payout in Kentucky Derby history came exactly 20 years ago in 2005 when long shots Giacomo and Closing Argument finished first and second, followed by one of the race favorites Afleet Alex. Take a guess at what a $2 trifecta with Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex paid. I’ll give you a second. OK, time’s up. It paid $133,134.80. Yes, $133,134.80 for a $2 bet.

My Favorite Derby Trifecta Story

In 2012, I was all over I’ll Have Another like I am with probable Derby favorite Journalism this year and every single bet I made was built around him, including a nice trifecta for 50 cents ($766.40). In 2015, my top pick was Firing Line, but I wasn’t nearly as confident, so when American Pharoah won and Firing Line finished second followed by Pharoah’s stablemate Dortmund, my saver trifecta ticket paid $101 for a buck.

My best score no doubt came in 2014. I loved California Chrome’s chances in the race – I just didn’t see how he could lose – but I didn’t really like many runners underneath. Chrome had speed so I knew I was going use a few deep closers in there and my longshot plodder was eventual runner-up Commanding Curve. A few days before the Derby, I reached out to a former Thoroughbred Times co-worker, Pete Denk, who with Kerry Thomas wrote a yearly Herding Report based on the way horses process information and respond to stimuli in races. It was always eye-opening and I was surprised to see they liked Arkansas Derby winner Danza’s chances. I thought his win was flukey and dismissed him, but I trusted their evaluation and added him underneath … I’m sure glad I did. The California Chrome-Commanding Curve-Danza trifecta paid $1,712.30 for a dollar and it was a ticket I had no business cashing.

My 2025 Derby Trifecta

My tentative plan is to just play a healthy exacta box with Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism and Japanese invader Luxor Café. But if I stretch it out to a trifecta, I will use the top two finishers from Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino (Rodriguez and Grande), the runner-up from the Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa (Sovereignty), Virginia Derby winner American Promise, Santa Anita Derby runner-up Baeza if he draws in, and Arkansas Derby winner Sandman.

My Bets

As I said above, my main approach this Derby is to really hammer the exacta with Journalism and Luxor Café. If I play the trifecta, both would need to finish in the top three for me to hit with one of them winning. It wouldn’t hurt if I uncover a longshot I like to add to the mix in the coming days.

$2 Trifecta: Journalism/Luxor Café with Journalism/Luxor Café with Rodriguez/Grande/Sovereignty/American Promise/Baeza/Sandman ($24 or $20 if Baeza does not draw into the race)

$2 Trifecta: Journalism/Luxor Café with Rodriguez/Grande/Sovereignty/American Promise/Baeza/Sandman with Journalism/Luxor Café ($24 or $20 if Baeza does not draw into the race)