This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they previously were.

In the ninth edition of this blog for the 2025 run for the roses, the focus is on the changing landscape of the 3-year-old male division after the last week of action, highlighted by the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct, the $500,000 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park, the $1 million United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored by Jumeirah Group at Meydan, and the $1.25 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course. 

HEATING UP

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1. Rodriguez

This colt by Authentic from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert delivered a career-best effort to win the Wood Memorial Stakes April 5 at Aqueduct. Baffert shipped him from Southern California, where he had come up short in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and DK Horse San Felipe Stakes, to New York for the Wood and removed his blinkers for the 1 1/8-mile race. Ridden by Hall of Famer Mike Smith, Rodriguez relaxed while setting the pace and finished powerfully with a final three-eighths of a mile in :36.90, a very good finishing time for dirt at that distance. The 111 Equibase Speed Figure and 101 Beyer Speed Figure both were career-best numbers and elevate him from the second or third tier of Derby contenders into the mix as a win candidate. Rodriguez took a significant step forward in the Wood Memorial Stakes. He has some real estate to make up on Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism, who defeated him by 11 ¼ lengths in the San Felipe, but this was a major improvement at an opportune time leading into the first jewel of the Triple Crown May 3 at Churchill Downs.

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2. Burnham Square

The Holy Bull Stakes winner needed a bounce-back effort after finishing fourth in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes in order to solidify his spot in the Kentucky Derby field and he delivered in the Blue Grass Stakes April 8. The Liam’s Map gelding closed from last to first to edge pacesetter East Avenue by a nose and earned a career-best 104 Equibase Speed Figure and 96 Beyer Speed Figure. Considering he was 9 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile in :46.95, I wish he would have finished faster. His final quarter-mile in :25.82 and final eighth in :13.08 don’t scream Kentucky Derby winner, but he did punch his ticket to Louisville for the 1 ¼-mile classic and he should be passing horses in the stretch with a realistic chance for a top-three finish.

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3. East Avenue

A Godolphin homebred trained by Brendan Walsh, East Avenue was one of the most highly regarded 2-year-olds of 2024 after posting back-to-back dominant wins to begin his career. His victory at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity made the Medaglia d’Oro colt the 9-5 favorite for the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, but a disastrous start doomed his chances that day. More concerning was East Avenue’s 2025 debut when he faded to 10^th after stalking the pace in the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes, finishing 22 ¾ lengths behind winner Magnitude in unequivocally the worst start of his career. That led to some speculation that perhaps he had peaked already and concerns that he would not regain his best form. In the Blue Grass Stakes, East Avenue set a strong pace into deep stretch and battled gamely through the final sixteenth before coming up a nose short to closer Burnham Square. The runner-up finish reestablished East Avenue as a top 3-year-old and gave him enough qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, so it was a big race. He earned a career-best 104 Equibase Speed Figure and 96 Beyer Speed Figure that he could improve upon in his third start of the year May 3 at Churchill Downs. That’s the positive. The negative is that he was unable to hold on to the lead late in a 1 1/8-mile race after setting a solid pace of :46.95 through the opening half-mile. His final three-eighths of a mile in :39.38 in the Blue Grass will not get the job done in the Kentucky Derby, but he’s now in the race and trending in the right direction.

Journalism (BENOIT photo)

Also eligible: You can’t rise higher than No. 1, so Journalism retains his spot in my Kentucky Derby rankings as THE most likely winner of the first jewel of the Triple Crown after adding the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby to his résumé. He regressed two points to a 108 Equibase Speed Figure and six points to a 102 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the April 5 Santa Anita Derby, which is a legitimate concern, but his final eighth of a mile in :12.32 was quite strong and he’s the fastest horse in the Kentucky Derby. … Grande made his stakes debut in the Wood Memorial Stakes April 5 at Aqueduct, a tough test for a 3-year-old colt in his third start. While the Curlin colt could not catch winner Rodriguez, he ran a strong race to finish second and the 50 qualifying points placed him on the bubble for a starting spot in the 20-horse field for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. He needs two defections to get into the race with one of those, Owen Almighty, looking like a high probability. Sometimes, 3-year-olds will take a huge leap in terms of improvement in early spring of their sophomore season, and that looks to be the case with Grande for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. His Equibase Speed Figure of 106 for the Wood Memorial was a 17-point jump and he boosted his Beyer Speed Figure 10 points to a 97. … It’s tough to separate the top two finishers from the United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored by Jumeirah Group April 5 at Meydan. Eventual winner, Japan-based Admire Daytona, set the pace and was headed by two horses entering the stretch, but he battled back on the inside to prevail in an ultra-game victory. Likewise, Heart of Honor challenged for the lead between Admire Daytona and Don in the Mood on the outside in early stretch, looked beaten, and then re-rallied late and was surging at the finish line while coming up just a nose short. It was a heck of a finish but it was not an especially fast 1 3/16-mile race. Heart of Honor has been a bit more consistent of the two runners. Both were late Triple Crown nominations and trainer Jamie Osborne said the Preakness Stakes on May 17 would be a consideration if Heart of Honor was not ready for the Kentucky Derby.

COOLING DOWN

BENOIT photo

1. Barnes

I expected Barnes to run a big race in the Santa Anita Derby April 5 at Santa Anita Park. I had him in my top tier of 3-year-olds along with Journalism and Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa winner Sovereignty. While Journalism ran up to my expectations in the Santa Anita Derby in winning by three-quarters of a length, Barnes did not. He raced within a couple of length of an opening half-mile in :47.14 but he had nothing left for the stretch drive and faded to last in the five-horse field, beaten by 19 ¾ lengths. He does not have the qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby nor would you want to go into the race off a dull effort like that. The Into Mischief colt opened his career with consecutive wins, including a Grade 2 victory, and entered the Santa Anita Derby off a second to Journalism in the DK Horse San Felipe Stakes. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said, “We have to regroup. That happens.”

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2. Chancer McPatrick

Things have just not gone to plan with Chancer McPatrick during his 3-year-old season, which was delayed due to minor ankle surgery. In his return from a layoff of more than four months, the McKinzie colt finished a well-beaten second to Owen Almighty in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby March 8. Chancer McPatrick thus needed a top-three finish April 8 for trainer Chad Brown in the Blue Grass Stakes to earn a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby but came up short when finishing in a dead heat for last in the seven-horse field. On the bright side, the multiple Grade 1 winner as a 2-year-old was only beaten by 4 ¼ lengths in the Blue Grass and earned a career-best 98 Equibase Speed Figure. But he does not appear to have progressed as much as he needed to from age 2 to 3 to retain his spot among the elite racehorses in the division. Perhaps he will take a step forward in his third race of the year, but that won’t come in the Kentucky Derby.

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3. Citizen Bull

Champion Citizen Bull entered the Santa Anita Derby April 5 at Santa Anita Park riding a three-race winning streak, all by open lengths, that included the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA to cement champion 2-year-old male honors for 2024. He opened his 3-year-old season with a 3 ¾-length victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes that further solidified his credentials as one of the top 3-year-olds dirt horses in training. But in the Santa Anita Derby, the champ just did not have his “A” game. He held a one-length lead through three-quarters of a mile but offered minimal resistance when challenged by Baeza and then Journalism in early stretch. He faded to fourth in the five-horse field, 9 ¾ lengths behind winner Journalism. “I was discouraged [Citizen Bull] didn’t get the win today,” trainer Bob Baffert said. “He got tired. He’s a heavy horse. The track was deep today. We will figure this out. We have a week and then we’ll decide what is next.” Citizen Bull has enough qualifying points to compete in the Kentucky Derby, but that is not the type of race you like to see before the most important start of a racehorse’s career, even a proven champion like Citizen Bull.

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Of note: With 50 points from that race toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby, Gotham Stakes winner Flood Zone’s connections made the curious decision to ship him 6,800 miles across the globe to compete in the $1 million United Arab Emirates Derby at Meydan. That’s a significant purse for a 1 3/16-mile race for 3-year-olds, but staying in New York to compete in the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial Stakes would have been significantly less travel stress on a colt who had already punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. Instead, he ran seventh, 17 lengths behind winner Admire Daytona, in the Middle East and now faces a long journey back if he is to compete in the first jewel of the Triple Crown. I’m sure there were reasons behind the decision to ship to Dubai, but if the goal was to win the Kentucky Derby this was certainly a more circuitous and risky path to Louisville. … I was impressed with Captain Cook’s Withers Stakes win Feb. 1 at Aqueduct and I thought he was in an ideal position to punch his ticket to the Kentucky Derby at the same track and 1 1/8-mile distance in the Wood Memorial April 5. Sent off as the 1.90-1 favorite in the 10-horse field, the Practical Joke colt could not keep pace with front-running winner Rodriguez and faded to finish fourth. It was not a poor effort by any stretch, but Captain Cook needed a top-two finish to earn a place in the Kentucky Derby starting gate and came up short. He’s a nice 3-year-old colt with a bright future but he’s on the outside looking in for the Kentucky Derby. … Owen Almighty’s trainer Brian Lynch expressed stamina concerns earlier this season for the Tampa Bay Derby winner, and perhaps the distance limitations became a reality in the stretch of the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes April 8 as the colt by champion sprinter Speightstown faded from second to sixth. Owen Almighty has enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, but Lynch is strongly considering alternatives. “He had the perfect trip and had every chance to make it his race, but he came up a little empty when we needed it,” Lynch said after the Blue Grass Stakes. “I don’t think the Derby is the way we will go.”