The marquee race of Future Stars Friday, the 2023 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, has delivered some truly incredible moments over the years.

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Who can forget Arazi’s brilliant, sweeping rally on the final turn in 1991, Favorite Trick capping an unbeaten Horse of the Year campaign with a 5 ½-length romp in 1997, and War Pass and Uncle Mo emerging as stars in 2007 and 2010, respectively?

There have also been some remarkable upsets, including Storm the Court’s 45.90-1 stunner in 2019 at Santa Anita Park, host of this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships. In fact, the Juvenile has been fairly unpredictable over the last 20 editions – more on that below – but it certainly didn’t start out that way. Favorites won eight of the first 15 editions of the Juvenile with $20.40 winner Is It True, who upset 3-10 favorite Easy Goer, the lone winner at odds higher than 5.60-1.

Since 2003, however, there have been eight double-digit longshot Juvenile winners, including four who paid $55.60 or more for a $2 win bet.

With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the last 20 years of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners (from 2003 to 2022) to uncover some betting angles and then also take a deeper dive into the eight editions of the Juvenile held on a dirt main track at Santa Anita (not counting the two on all-weather surfaces in 2008 and 2009).

Learning from Past 20 Editions, from 2003 to 2022

Game Winner (Eclipse Sportswire)

• It stands to reason that good recent form is a solid indicator as 10 of the last 13 winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile entered off a win and all 20 finished in the top three in their final prep race. Otherwise, they most likely would not have qualified for a race of this prestige, especially with juvenile Thoroughbreds racing fewer and fewer times in recent years.
• A victory in the most recent prep race is not essential, though, as seven of the last 20 winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile entered the race off a second- or third-place finish in a group or graded stakes. Two-year-olds can improve and learn quickly, so those runners who finished just behind the victor in recent preps often turn the tables in the Breeders’ Cup.
• Start with the major prep races on the big circuits as nine of the last 20 winners made their final start in Southern California, seven in graded stakes. Four others won after prepping in the Champagne Stakes in New York and four more came out of a start in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.
• The Juvenile is pretty unpredictable as evidenced by only five favorites winning in the last 20 years and eight of the last 20 Juvenile winners prevailing at 10-1 odds of higher, including four at 25-1 odds or higher: Action This Day, 26.80-1 in 2003; Wilko, 28.30-1 in 2004; Vale of York, 30.60-1 in 2009; and Storm the Court, 45.90-1 in 2019. If you like a longshot, there is a chance you could be richly rewarded.
• Two of the double-digit winners entered the Juvenile off victories in maiden special weight races, so don’t discount 2-year-olds facing a class test if they look like they have serious talent. The other six longshots all finished second or third against graded stakes competition in their final prep race and rewarded those who stuck with them.
• Each of the five winning favorites completed unbeaten, championship-winning campaigns in the Juvenile and entered off a Grade 1 win: War Pass in 2007, Uncle Mo in 2010, Shanghai Bobby in 2012, Game Winner in 2018, and Corniche in 2021. If you plan to bet a favorite, make sure he’s an unbeaten standout.
• Any running style can win in the Juvenile as only four true pacesetters have won since 2003 with another two winners who profiled as press the pace-type runners. Meanwhile, seven runners who were closers or closer-stalker types have won over the same timeframe. There are Breeders’ Cup races where one particular running style seems to be particularly advantageous or disadvantageous – the Juvenile is not one of them.

A Deeper Dive into the Juvenile at Santa Anita

Shanghai Bobby and Rosie Napravnik. (Eclipse Sportswire)

This year will be the 11^th time Santa Anita Park has hosted the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. Of the previous 10 editions of the Juvenile, eight were held on dirt main tracks while two others in 2008 and 2009 were held on all-weather surfaces. Dirt and all-weather tracks play much differently, so for handicapping purposes lets narrow the focus to the eight Juveniles held on dirt at Santa Anita for any helpful trends.

• Four of the eight races on the dirt main track at Santa Anita produced double-digit longshot winners, and all of them came from the sample above from the last 20 years: Action This Day paid $55.60 for a $2 win bet in 2003, New Year’s Day paid $23 in 2013, Texas Red paid $29.80 in 2014, and Storm the Court in 2019 rewarded his backers to the tune of $93.80 for a $2 win bet.
• Likewise, the average winning odds for the eight editions of the Juvenile in this sample are 13.54-1 with a median of 7.5-1.
• Pace makes the race and typically Santa Anita’s dirt main track plays fast. The opening half-mile in seven of the eight editions of the Juvenile on dirt at Santa Anita was :46.60 or faster and five were :45.80 or faster.
• Not surprisingly, horses coming from well off the pace won three of the five fastest with an opening half-mile of :45.80 or faster, while speedy Capote led from start to finish despite a testing tempo in 1986 and 13-10 favorite Shanghai Bobby pressed a torrid pace in his 2012 victory and barely held on by a head.
• Six of the eight prepped for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in Southern California – five at Santa Anita and one at Del Mar. Shanghai Bobby entered off a dominant win in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park in 2012 and Classic Empire prepped with a three-length win in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.

How Do the 2023 Contenders Fit?

Muth (BENOIT photo)

California-based runners have done quite well in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with nine of the last 20 winners prepping at either Santa Anita Park or Del Mar. Likewise six of the eight editions of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile held on the dirt at Santa Anita were won by horses coming out of a Southern California prep.

Give a long look at Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes winner Muth and Grade 1 Runhappy Del Mar Futurity winner Prince of Monaco, both from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer and five-time Juvenile winner Bob Baffert. Prince of Monaco is unbeaten in three starts profiles as a logical favorite having beaten Muth by 4 ¼ lengths in the Grade 3 Best Pal Stakes in August at Del Mar, although he has never competed in a race around two turns. Muth was a dominant 3 ¾-length winner in his first try stretching out to 1 1/16 miles in the American Pharoah.

Champagne Stakes winner Timberlake and Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity winner Locked both warrant respect. Of the two, I see a bit more upside in Timberlake who was terrific in winning the Champagne by 4 ¼ lengths after trainer Brad Cox removed his blinkers. Cox won the Juvenile in 2020 with Essential Quality and both the Champagne and Breeders’ Futurity have been productive path to Juvenile success.

Two juveniles I like who could fit into that longshot mold both enter out of top-three finishes in Grade 1 preps, and might fly a bit under the radar – Breeders’ Futurity runner-up The Wine Steward and American Pharoah second-place finisher Wine Me Up. The latter was moving from a three-quarter-mile sprint in his career debut to a 1 1/16-mile Grade 1 race around two turns. He set the pace and faded a bit late, but the connections of this Vino Rosso colt are considering supplementing him to the race. I believe there is upside here. The Wine Steward also ran well in his first try around two turns, finishing a half-length behind winner Locked after sweeping his first three races, including a pair of stakes wins. He showed some tenacity late in the Breeders’ Futurity and should have a little more stamina in the stretch of his second start at 1 1/16 miles.

In a race where you can expect the unexpected, either Wine Me Up or The Wine Steward could spring a surprise at a sweet price.