Nearly 40 years ago, a brilliant filly named Althea unleashed a terrific performance in the 1984 Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. After setting a solid pace, Althea rocketed the final furlong in a blazing 11 2/5 seconds to draw off and win by seven lengths. Her final time of 1:46 4/5 for 1 1/8 miles remains the fastest ever seen in the Arkansas Derby by a wide margin.

Secret Oath exercises at Oaklawn. (Coady Photography)

Althea was trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who has long been known for saddling fast fillies and mares to beat males in major stakes. No filly has won the Arkansas Derby in the nearly four decades since Althea, but that can change on Saturday when Lukas saddles the sensational #6 Secret Oath in Saturday’s renewal of the $1.25 million Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifier.

Unlike Althea, whose brilliant juvenile form earned champion 2-year-old filly honors at the Eclipse Awards, Secret Oath didn’t show a lot at age 2. Her lone graded stakes attempt produced a fifth-place finish in the Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill Downs.

But Secret Oath has improved by leaps and bounds at Oaklawn this winter. On Dec. 31, she unleashed a powerful stretch rally to obliterate a one-mile allowance race by 8 ¼ lengths. Then in the 1 1/16-mile Martha Washington Stakes on the Road to the Longines Kentucky Oaks, Secret Oath settled in midpack before seizing command to trounce her foes by 7 ¼ lengths.

Secret Oath was even more impressive in the 1 1/16-mile Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes on Feb. 26 at Oaklawn, another stop on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks. After rating off the pace, Secret Oath found herself boxed in behind rivals and had to wait in traffic around the far turn, even steadying for a moment. But once an opening appeared along the rail, Secret Oath shot through and roared clear to win by 7 ½ lengths with a 97 Brisnet Speed rating.

As impressively as Secret Oath performed in the Honeybee, it’s possible she would have won by even more if she’d been able to race freely around the far turn. This is a scary thought for her Arkansas Derby rivals, because none of them have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 95, which means Secret Oath is already the fastest horse in the field.

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Who can possibly beat Secret Oath? Certainly some bettors will be keen to support #5 Un Ojo and #3 Barber Road, who were separated by half a length when finishing first and third, respectively, in Oaklawn’s 1 1/16-mile Grade 2 Rebel Stakes on the same day as the Honeybee. Both Un Ojo and Barber Road have run well in multiple Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers, so their consistency is appealing. But it’s worth noting the final time of the Rebel was a modest 1:45.69, a significant 0.95 seconds slower than Secret Oath’s 1:44.74 clocking from the Honeybee.

#4 Doppelganger is another logical contender. Horses based in California have won six of the last 13 editions of the Arkansas Derby, so Doppelganger – shipping in off a runner-up effort in Santa Anita Park’s Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes – warrants respect for this reason alone. Plus, the 95 Brisnet Speed rating he posted in the San Felipe ranks as the second-fastest figure in the Arkansas Derby field.

The only problem is, Doppelganger is a late runner who received a fantastic pace setup in the San Felipe. Fast early fractions set by front-running winner Forbidden Kingdom burned out the other speed horses, allowing Doppelganger to rally into decelerating late fractions and finish clearly second-best. Viewed through this lens, it’s surprising Doppelganger didn’t close more ground down the homestretch – despite the intense early pace, Forbidden Kingdom defeated Doppelganger by 5 ¾ lengths. If a more modest pace unfolds in the Arkansas Derby, Doppelganger may find himself at a disadvantage.

#8 Cyberknife is one runner who would benefit from a relaxed tempo. He showed solid tactical speed when tracking the pace in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claiming race at Fair Grounds last month, which he ultimately won by three lengths with a competitive 94 Brisnet Speed rating. But Cyberknife misfired in his only previous foray on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, finishing sixth in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. Can he avoid a similar disappointment while returning to the graded stakes ranks in the Arkansas Derby?

Ultimately, Secret Oath looks like the fastest and most trustworthy of the Arkansas Derby contenders. She’s likely to start at a short price in the betting, but that’s OK – by playing her on top of exotic wagers like the exacta and trifecta, we can catch solid payoffs even if Secret Oath leads home a predictable order of finish.

Wagering Strategy on a $12 Budget

$4 exacta: 6 with 3,4,8 ($12)

What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 12^th race, $4 exacta 6 with 3,4,8

Wagering Strategy on a $36 Budget

$6 exacta: 6 with 3,4,8 ($18)

What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 12^th race, $6 exacta 6 with 3,4,8

$1.50 trifecta: 6 with 3,4,8 with 3,4,5,8,9 ($18)

What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 12^th race, $1.50 trifecta 6 with 3,4,8 with 3,4,5,8,9

Good luck, and enjoy the race!