The 1 ¼-mile Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic is the marquee race for the upcoming World Championships Nov. 6-7 at Keeneland Race Course, and most years it lives up to its billing as one of the most important races on the global racing calendar.

Stars like Ferdinand, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Unbridled, A.P. Indy, Cigar, Skip Away, Tiznow, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, and American Pharoah helped cement their legacies with a victory in the Classic, while countless other standouts like Slew o’ Gold, Easy Goer, Best Pal, Silver Charm, Bernardini, and California Chrome tried and came up short on Breeders’ Cup day. Great horses have run strong races in the Classic and still not been quite good enough.

The Classic regularly draws the best dirt horses from across North America and frequently lures elite international competition as well, and from a wild finish in the inaugural event until present day the race has served as a powerful anchor to the World Championships.

Over the last 20 years (2000 through 2019), the Classic has delivered several dominant performances by powerful favorites as well as six winners that paid at least $20 for a $2 win bet, including $89 victor Volponi in 2002.

Let’s take a deep dive into the last 20 years of the Classic to seek out some trends and tips that might be helpful when handicapping the 2020 edition Nov. 7 at Keeneland.

In Fine Fettle

I grew up going to Delaware Park, and in the local newspaper (The News Journal) they had the graded handicap of each racecard from Rick Smyth. When a horse was going good, you might see “In Fine Fettle” in the comment section, and that absolutely applies here when analyzing the Breeders’ Cup Classic. These 20 winners were outstanding, with especially stout recent form approaching the race.

• Thirteen of the 20 won their final prep races – 14 if you count 2019 winner Vino Rosso, who crossed the finish line first in the Jockey Club Gold Cup but was disqualified and placed second. Ten of those 13 came out of a Grade 1 win (11 counting Vino Rosso).
• Eighteen of the last 20 Classic winners finished first or second in their final prep and none ran outside of the top three.
• Of the last 20 Classic winners, 18 were Grade 1 winners entering the race and the other two – 43.50-1 winner Volponi (2002) and 14.20-1 winner Pleasantly Perfect (2003) – had won a Grade 2 race. That means the last 16 Breeders’ Cup Classic winners all were Grade 1 winners entering the race.
• From June of the year of their Classic win through their final prep race, the last 20 Breeders’ Cup winners won 37 of 63 starts for a 58.7% strike rate and finished in the top three in a remarkable 60 of their 63 combined starts (95.2%).

Never Tell Me the Odds … Unless it‘s a Price

American Pharoah in 2015. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Only five of the last 20 editions of the Classic have been won by favorites, but that’s a misleading stat. For the most part, the 1 ¼-mile race has been won by elite horses in very good form (see above), but don’t completely rule out an upset …

• As mentioned above, only five of the last 20 editions of the Classic were won by post-time favorites, ranging from 7-10 odds for American Pharoah in 2015 to 2.80-1 for Zenyatta in 2009. However, 11 of the last 20 Breeders’ Cup Classic winners prevailed at odds of 5.2-1 or less and 14 of the last 20 scored at 7-1 odds or less.
• Recent history has been even less promising for longshot seekers as the last seven winners went off at 6.10-1 odds or less and five of the seven were won by the favorite or second betting choice.
• Six of the last 20 Classic winners paid $20 or more for a $2 win bet: Tiznow ($20.40, 2000), Volponi ($89, 2002), Pleasantly Perfect ($30,40, 2003), Raven’s Pass ($29, 2008), Drosselmeyer ($31.60, 2011), and Fort Larned ($20.80, 2012).
• Looking closer at the $20 winners over the past 20 years, three of the six profiled as closer or closer/stalker types.
• Not surprisingly, the two runners who did not enter the Classic as established Grade 1 winners – Volponi in 2002 and Pleasantly Perfect in 2003 – came from this group of longshots.
• Only one of the six $20 winners came out of a Grade/Group 1 win, and that was European invader Raven’s Pass who won the Classic on a synthetic main track. Two of the others came out of Grade 2 wins and the other three finished in the top three but did not win their final prep.
• The six $20 winners did not boast as strong recent form as other winners, combining to win nine of 23 starts from June through their final prep for a 39.2% strike rate compared with 58.7% for the group as a whole. But they were consistently very good, having run in the top three in 21 of 23 starts (91.3%) during this timeframe.

Odds and Ends

Mucho Macho Man in 2013. (Eclipse Sportswire)

I typically like to spend a good segment of these historical blogs looking at running style, but the Classic does not seem to favor any style in particular over the last 20 editions, so I’ll include some of that here with a few other interesting tidbits.

• Seven horses who preferred to race on or near the lead have won in the last 20 editions of the Classic with four dedicated closers winning during that span. I classified three as stalker/press-the-pace types entering the race, four as stalkers, and the other two I pegged as closers/stalkers. It’s really a pretty diverse group.
• Along those lines, the median position of the Classic winner has been fourth/fifth (4.5) and about three lengths back after the opening quarter-mile and fourth/fifth and about 3 ¾ lengths back after a half-mile.
• The deep closers skewed the averages only a bit with the average winner sitting a little better than fifth (4.8) and about four to 4 ¼ lengths back after the first quarter and almost exactly 4 ¼ lengths back on average after a half-mile.
• By early stretch, however, the winner was by median a half-length in front and on average between one-quarter of a length and a half-length in front.
• Six of the last 20 Classic winners were 3-year-olds taking on older horses, and two of those six (Tiznow in 2000, Raven’s Pass in 2008) came from the group of six $20 winners since 2000.
• None of the last 20 Classic winners was older than 5. In fact, the Classic has never been won by a horse older than 5 years old. Zenyatta came the closest when a head short to Blame during her 6-year-old season in 2010.
• Seventeen of the 20 made their final prep race in either New York or Southern California, with 11 Classic winners coming out of a New York prep, five prepping in the Awesome Again (formerly Goodwood) Stakes at Santa Anita Park. Zenyatta won a Grade 1 (Lady’s Secret Stakes) against females at Santa Anita.
• The average winning Equibase Speed Figure for the Breeders’ Cup Classic from 2000 through 2019 was 121.35 with a median of 122. The winning figure ranged from a 113 for Bayern in 2014 to a 130 for Gun Runner in 2017.
• Five of the last 20 editions of the Classic were decided by a neck or less with three decided by a nose (Tiznow over Sakhee in 2001; Mucho Macho Man over Will Take Charge in 2013; and Bayern over Toast of New York in 2014).
• Sixteen of the last 20 Classic winners were bred in Kentucky with two bred in California, one in Florida, and the other in Argentina.

Which 2020 Contenders Fit the Profile?

Some of the data above is not especially encouraging if you, like me, handicap these Breeders’ Cup races looking for value plays. The Classic, especially in recent years, has been dominated by horses who were among the favorites. But unlike past years, I don’t see any true standout among the 2020 Classic contenders. I guess Improbable could be loosely considered a standout. While he has been terrific, I view the group of horses just below him to be very close in terms of ability. So, let’s get to it and evaluate the top horses targeting the 2020 Classic.

Improbable (Eclipse Sportswire)

It’s hard to find fault in Improbable. He’s 3-for-3 since June with a dominant win in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup at 1 ¼ miles in June that earned him a career-best 116 Equibase Speed Figure at the time. He followed with a two-length win in the Garde 1 Whitney Stakes before defeating champion Maximum Security by 4 ½ lengths in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes Sept. 26 for Bob Baffert, who won the Classic in 2014, 2015, and 2016. Improbable earned back-to-back 120 speed figures in those wins. With a three-race stretch of 120-120-116 Equibase Speed Figures while flawless since June and the versatility to press or stalk the pace, Improbable should be tough as the most likely favorite.

This year’s Classic looks to have an especially deep group of talented 3-year-olds with Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve winner Authentic, Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets winner Tiz the Law, and perhaps Preakness Stakes-winning filly Swiss Skydiver.

Tiz the Law has been rested since running second to Authentic in the Derby Sept. 5, and I was initially a bit worried about the nine-week layoff, but three of the last five Classic winners (American Pharoah, 2015; Arrogate, 2016; Gun Runner, 2017) entered the race off a similar break. His form is terrific with a 3 ¾-length win in the Belmont Stakes and a 5 ½-length runaway in the 1 ¼-mile Runhappy Travers Stakes preceding his Derby second. With Equibase Speed Figures ranging from a 107 to 117 this year, he’s fast enough to be a win candidate with a small step forward. The Kentucky Derby and Preakness have never been run at this time of year, so while New York and Southern California have produced the vast majority of Classic winners, it’s hard to knock a horse coming out of either classic race.

Like Tiz the Law, Authentic sports nearly impeccable credentials as a proven Grade 1 winner in great form with two wins and two seconds since June. After back-to-back wins in the Grade 1 TVG.com Haskell Stakes and Kentucky Derby, the latter leading from start to finish in a 1 ¼-length score, Authentic lost nothing in defeat when second by a neck to Swiss Skydiver in the Oct. 3 Preakness. As mentioned above, Authentic’s trainer, Bob Baffert, has won this race three times and, interestingly, all three came with 3-year-olds. He’s recorded 109 Equibase Speed Figures for each of his last three starts, which is a little bit light compared with the others. It also looks like several others could challenge Authentic for the early lead.

Should Swiss Skydiver compete in the Classic rather than the Longines Distaff, she would be the first 3-year-old filly to start in the race since French Oaks winner Jolypha finished third in 1992 and only the second ever. It has been reported that her owners are leaning toward the Distaff, but trainer Ken McPeek prefers the 1 ¼ miles of the Classic over the 1 1/8 miles of the Distaff. With three wins and two seconds in five starts since June, she is in top form and boasts a pair of Grade 1 wins, including the hard-fought classic score over males in the Preakness. From a speed-figure perspective, Swiss Skydiver very likely needs to improve but is within striking distance.

Maximum Security (Eclipse Sportswire)

Maximum Security has been the heavy favorite in each of the last seven times he’s competed in a parimutuel race – the other race was a win in the $20 million Saudi Cup, which did not offer wagering – and even-money or less in six of those races. So, if you’ve been waiting for a decent price on the 2019 champion 3-year-old male, who famously was disqualified after finishing first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, this might be your chance. On paper, Maximum Security is the fastest horse in the field with a career-best 123 Equibase Speed Figure, and he in good form with two wins and a second in three starts since June. He’s also crossed the finish line first in both of his starts at 1 ¼ miles. On the other hand, Improbable handled him easily in the Awesome Again Stakes and he should have company up front from stablemate Authentic. Still, if Maximum Security is between 9-2 and 8-1 odds, you would be getting a heck of a bang for betting buck.

At seven, Tom’s d’Etat would be the oldest horse to ever win the Classic by a couple of years but he’s been very good in three starts this year with two wins and a third and speed figures ranging from 113-117. A Grade 1 winner in 2019, Tom’s d’Etat won the Grade 2 Stephen Foster Stakes by 4 ¼ lengths in June at Churchill Downs and has not raced since finishing third to Improbable in the Whitney after he stumbled at the start. He looked like an elite Classic win contender earlier in the year and it’s tough to knock him off a race where he probably lost any chance at the start, but he’s another I would demand value on with my wagering dollars.

By My Standards (Eclipse Sportswire)

The last three contenders I want to touch on quickly are Tacitus, Global Campaign, and By My Standards.

I have trouble seeing Tacitus winning the Classic simply because he’s come up short as the favorite so often. He’s finished in the top three in all three of his starts since June and posted a nice win at 1 ¼ miles in the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes in July. He’s also coming out of a top-three finish in a Grade 1 New York prep race (third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup) and you’ll get almost certainly the best price of his entire career. Still, he’s burned me once too often.

Global Campaign has posted front-running wins in the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup Stakes in July and Grade 1 Woodward Stakes at 1 ¼ miles Sept. 5 at Saratoga. He also should offer value, but he’ll need to get faster with a career-top 109 Equibase Speed Figure and he’ll face a ton of pressure up front.

By My Standards is my favorite of this trio and I think he could be in the 15-1 to 20-1 range with a record of four wins and two seconds in six starts this year, with a win and two seconds in three starts since June. He earned a career-top 118 Equibase Speed Figure for his second to Improbable in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes. Although he’s not a Grade 1 winner, the 4-year-old has tactical speed and enters off a Grade 2 win in the Alysheba Stakes Presented by Sentient Jet and he’s run only one bad race in his entire career in his lone start on a sloppy track. I expect him to run a big race at a big price.

While I respect favorite Improbable, my early plan is to try to beat him. I’ll think long and hard about Tiz the Law in this spot and, despite that fact that I’ve never (and I mean never) been a fan, I do think Maximum Security will run big at an appealing price. I also expect By My Standards to outrun his odds and will use him as a longshot play.