Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Sept. 17-21

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Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!

Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you, on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.

I have a wanted sign in Las Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I choose to punt.

That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.

Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!

**Lines as of Wednesday Night from scoresandodds.com**

College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley

Week two treated us well (4-2 ATS), and it could have been even better. We were a combined seven points from going 6-0. LSU and Georgia won, but couldn't quite cover the number. We benefitted from an unlikely comeback by Baker Mayfield and the Oklahoma Sooners, a great win by our home underdogs (BYU), a solid home cover (Virginia) and a predicted score (MSU by a field goal).  

Last week: 4-2

Season Total: 7-6 (.538)

Let's see if we can continue the momentum heading into week three.

Minnesota -24.5 vs. Kent State (Saturday, noon ET, BTN)

Minnesota has not had an easy time of it so far in this 2015 campaign. With a home game against #2 TCU and a road trip out to Ft. Collins, Colo. … the Gophers could use an easy home game. And that's exactly what they are getting when Kent State visits Minneapolis this weekend. The Golden Flashes got destroyed at a mediocre (at best) Illinois and beat up on a terrible Delaware St. team. Minnesota has proven to be maybe ... just maybe, the third best team in the Big 10. Minnesota big in this one.

Duke -3.5 vs. (23) Northwestern (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3)

I think this one may be a little tough for the 'Cats. The first road game of the season for a young team like Northwestern is always a challenge, especially when traveling to Durham to face an underrated team in Duke. Duke's power running game ranks third in the nation among big five conference schools, and that should allow them to control the pace of this game … something Stanford could not get accomplished against Northwestern week one. I like the 'Cats this year, but not against this Duke team in the heat of Durham, N.C. Blue Devils by a touchdown.

(13) LSU -7 vs. (18) Auburn (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

If anyone watched the Auburn game last weekend against Jacksonville St., you know the reasoning behind this pick. LSU will do some work in Death Valley. LSU will win by double-digits, easily.

TIGER STADIUM FIGURES TO BE AN INHOSPITABLE
PLACE FOR AUBURN SATURDAY

"Tiger Stadium" by JustDog - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons.

Miami, Fla.-3 vs. Nebraska at Sun Life Stadium in Miami (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

This is another surprising spread number to me at least. Nebraska and Tommy Armstrong Jr. haven't particularly impressed me, while Miami has. I think Miami's ability to start the season with a true road game at FAU and do what they did speaks volumes to me compared with what is says on paper. This is a great, classic matchup, I just wish it was at the Orange Bowl. Miami by at least a touchdown.

(14) Georgia Tech -2.5 @ (8) Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

I love Georgia Tech in this matchup. Even if the Fighting Irish had Malik Zaire available at QB, I think the Yellow Jackets triple-option offense will give ND's defense too much to handle. Notre Dame began this week as a 1 ½-point favorite, so people are tending to agree with this sentiment. It will be a great atmosphere at ND Stadium, but a six-point victory by the Ramblin' Wreck is enough to cover this spread.

(15) Mississippi +7 @ (2) Alabama (Saturday, 9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)

This was by far the toughest game to pick on my Saturday slate. Ole Miss has looked great, granted it's been against menial competition (depending on what you think about Fresno St.). But two straight games of 70 points is exactly that, and hyped new QB Chad Kelly has been stellar in the time he's actually been on field (note the blowout victories). This is really the first test for Kelly and the Rebels, and I personally think they have the roster and the team to win this game. I think they will hold a lead for three quarters but give in up to a more balanced and tested Alabama squad. Alabama wins by four, late.

BYU +16.5 @ UCLA (Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET, FS1)

Sixteen-and-a-half points?! That's quite a heavy spread for a team that has experienced its fair share of divine intervention. We cannot go back now, we must ride this wave. Mangum Magic to cover!

Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek

Depending on the accuracy of your opinions and the readiness of the teams you hang your hat on to start the season, week one can either be fruitful or fruitless.

In an unexpectedly high-scoring game, some of it due to defense and special teams returns, St. Louis passed the test against Seattle and Miami outlasted a stubborn Washington squad.

Now the bad. Oakland laid a huge egg at home against Cincinnati, Indianapolis got punched in the mouth at Buffalo, Minnesota was a massive disappointment at San Francisco, Baltimore’s offense fell short against Denver and Philadelphia rallied too late against Atlanta.

Even the best horses throw in a clunker on occasion, and revenge plays a big part in our week two strategies.

Last week: 2-5

Season Total: 2-5 (.286)

Thursday, Sept. 17

Kansas City Chiefs - 3 vs. Denver Broncos

In the opener, Denver edged Baltimore at home, but the defense won that game, not Peyton Manning and the offense. It won’t get any easier against a rabid Kansas City team on the road, especially on short rest.

Sunday, Sept. 20

San Diego Chargers +3 @ Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati enjoyed a cakewalk at Oakland, but they’re not as good as that lopsided score might indicate, trust me, and overconfidence at home could come into play. San Diego scored an emotional, come-from-behind victory over Detroit at home, and they’ll ride that wave into Ohio. I’ll take Phillip Rivers over Andy Dalton all day long and into next week.

Baltimore Ravens - 6 @ Oakland Raiders

The Baltimore offense was stymied by Denver in the opener, but the defense more than held its own. The Ravens surely don’t want to start the season 0-2, and the Raiders appear ripe for the picking off last week’s embarrassing loss.

EXPECT AN ORNERY RAVENS SQUAD COMING OFF A SEASON-OPENING LOSS

"Steve Smith vs. Jaguars 2014" by Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA - Flickr. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons.

Philadelphia Eagles - 5.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys

It took Philadelphia a half to get the offense in gear at Atlanta, and they fell just short. Dallas was gifted a win by the New York Giants. WR Dez Bryant is out for the Cowboys, which is a massive loss for a team that will have to try match points in a hostile environment with a high-powered Eagles offense.

Monday, Sept. 21

Indianapolis Colts - 7 vs. New York Jets

Indianapolis should absolutely be embarrassed by their opening week performance at Buffalo. Whispers that Chuck Pagano’s job may be in jeopardy will add positive fuel to the Colt’s locker room. The Jets beat down a hapless Cleveland squad in week one, but in this Monday nighter, they won’t know what hit them. 

Ponies – by Joe Kristufek

Following a memorable Saratoga Race Course meet, Belmont Park is back in full swing, but our focus remains on the Bluegrass state. Kentucky Downs puts a wrap on abbreviated, all-turf season and Churchill Downs runs its Saturday, late-post “Downs After Dark” program. Live action under the Twin Spires continues through Sept. 27 before the action shifts to Keeneland and anticipation builds for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships.

Last weekend a victory at 4-to-1 odds by Da Big Hoss in the Kentucky Cup Turf helped us salvage a microscopic profit.

Last week: 3-1-0-0 ($2 WPS * $18 wagered * $18.20 returned)

Season Total: 6-2-1-1 ($2 WPS * $36 wagered * $38.60 returned = $6.43)

Saturday, Sept. 19

Kentucky Downs – Franklin, Ky.

Race 6 – Glen Hill Farm One Dreamer Stakes (first division)

#11 Annulment (9-2, morning line) – This 4-year-old daughter of Broken Vow keeps getting better, recently lighting the tote in consecutive turf stakes behind solid winners.. She’s been pointed to this, and jockey Robby Albarado should have her well positioned to take over on the turn for home.

Race 7 – The Fasig-Tipton Ladies Turf Stakes

#5 I’m Already Sexy (7-2, morning line) – The defending champ in this race is just as good coming into it as she was last year. Three-year-old Sunset Glow is very likely to be over bet, allowing us to steal a fair price on this game and speedy mare.

I'M ALREADY SEXY

Photo by Bill Denver/EQUI-Photo

Churchill Downs – Louisville, Ky.

Race 9 – Dogwood Stakes (G3)

#5 Super Majesty (5-2, morning line)

A romping winner in her first two career starts, this SoCal invader lost a narrow decision off the bench last out. Off a noticeable edge in speed figures, she’ll be the favorite in her stakes debut. In a race that isn’t overloaded with speed types, she’ll be forwardly placed, and the seven-furlong distance should be right up her alley. 

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