Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Nov. 12-15

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Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!

Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you, on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.

I have a wanted sign in Las Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I choose to punt.

That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.

Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!

**Lines as of Wednesday Night from scoresandodds.com**

College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley

A decent Week 10 in the world of college football for us.

We hit Kansas State and Florida State covering their spreads as well as Alabama beating up on LSU. We whiffed on the Texas A&M debacle as well as TCU going into Stillwater, Okla. Thought those quarterbacks (Boykin, Murray) would perform a little better, respectively, but that just wasn't the case.

And then there is Northwestern. We lost this by .5 as they beat Penn State by two points, however this line moved four and a half points from Thursday morning to Saturday morning. Penn State actually ended up being the favorite!  

Hopefully, you saw the Northwestern pick and were able to get in on the action after some of the line movement.

Either way, 3-3 is bad.  Not great, but does hurt us. After a mediocre week, I like to keep things simple when picking some of these games. Sometimes, you just need to get out of your own way. (Like dropping James Starks a week ago in fantasy, I overthought what I wanted to do and got in my own way).

We are 17-7 ATS in the last four weeks. Another moving weekend in college football coming up! Six games on deck for Week 11, let's get to it.

Last Week: 3-3

Season Total: 32-29-1 (.51) 

Week 11

(13) Michigan State -15 vs. Maryland (Saturday, noon ET, ESPN2)

Maryland is visiting Michigan State at the wrong time. After suffering their first loss of the season, and in a calendar year, the Spartans are not happy. The MSU front seven is too much for Maryland to handle. The Spartans still control their own destiny in the B1G East Division. 

(3) Ohio State -15.5 @ Illinois (Saturday, noon ET, ABC)

J.T. Barrett returns for the Buckeyes on this trip to Champaign, Ill., as Ohio State looks to return to form after a somewhat lackluster performance in its win against Minnesota. Urban Meyer knows Ohio State is skating on thin ice currently with the playoff committee, and that the "eye-test" really matters in games like these. Ohio State big.

BARRETT AND THE BUCKEYES LOOK TO RETURN TO FORM

By Paula Lively [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Syracuse +28 vs. (1) Clemson (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2)

Clemson is the currently holder of the "target on the back" and will "get everyone's best shot." Very cliché, but also very true. The Orange have played pretty well at the Carrier Dome and will give Clemson a game within four touchdowns to cover. 

(8) Oklahoma State -14 @ Iowa State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Baylor has an argument, and so do a few other teams, but none more relevant than the argument that Oklahoma State has to be included in the top four of the College Football Playoffs. I know it doesn't mean anything, but undefeated with a blowout win against TCU should say more than, "Hey, we are No. 8 behind one-loss Notre Dame and Stanford." The Cowboys are still none too pleased and will show it in Ames, Iowa. Quite frankly, they need to. 

(12) Oklahoma +2.5 @ (6) Baylor (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC)

The best game on the Saturday slate is this nighttime tilt in Waco, Texas. The Sooners are my dark horse to make the College Football Playoff, and their push begins against Baylor in front of the prime-time audience. Mayfield and Perine will shine in this shootout. 

(9) LSU -7 vs. Arkansas (Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)

College football is just so weird. I mean, Arkansas goes in and gets an enormous win in Oxford against Ole Miss, playing in its fifth overtime in two weeks. LSU is coming off a two-touchdown loss at Alabama. Arkansas goes in and beats Ole Miss, who beats Alabama, who beats LSU … who will complete the college football circle and beat Arkansas. Death Valley is too much for the Razorbacks. 

Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek

Last week was fun.

Oakland hung with Pittsburgh and covered, San Francisco and Indianapolis won games outright as underdog selections and both of the totals we played happily stayed under.

Tampa Bay proved no match for the New York Giants and St. Louis lost a heartbreaker in overtime.

Last week: 5-2

Season Total: 26-28-3 (.481)

Week 10

Sunday, Nov. 15

Dallas Cowboys +1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Times are desperate in Big D. They’ve lost six straight, but have played well enough to win a few of those games. Even without LB Sean Lee, the defense should be strong enough to keep the Bucs in check. The running game, led by Darren McFadden, continues to gain momentum. 

Washington Redskins +1 vs. New Orleans Saints

After winning three straight, New Orleans took a punch in the gut from the lowly Tennessee Titans last week in overtime. Washington comes into this home game rested and has the advantage of facing a porous Saints defense. At 3-5, amazingly enough, Washington is still in the thick of the divisional race. 

Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is two games up in the division. Seattle is at home and sees an opportunity to significantly tighten the race, or lose and face an uphill battle to even earn a wildcard. The Seahawks are healthy coming off a bye week. Arizona may be without one of its most dangerous receiving weapons in John Brown, most likely leaving Larry Fitzgerald blanketed. Chris Johnson has been a revelation at RB for the Cardinals but he’ll probably be stymied in this one.

WILSON AND THE SEAHAWKS COME OFF A BYE WEEK

Russell Wilson vs. Redskins 2014" by Keith Allison - Flickr. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons

Ponies – by Joe Kristufek

It was a tough Saturday at the office.

Two of our three picks lit the toteboard (Katie’s Kiss 2nd and Gold Medal Dancer 3rd) but Walk Close finished an even sixth.

Back to the drawing board.

Last week: 3-0-1-1 ($2 WPS * $18 wagered * $8.30 returned)

Season Total: 31-3-5-8 ($2 WPS * $186 wagered * $105.30 returned = $3.40)

Saturday, Nov. 14, 2015

Churchill Downs – Louisville, Ky.

Race 10 – Mrs. Revere Stakes (G2)

#7 Onus (morning line, 6-1)

In a ridiculously fun and wide-open race, I’m going to give a slight edge to this gray daughter of Blame. She’s won three straight in impressive fashion, all the while avoiding some of the heavy hitters while racing in Maryland. She enters this race fresh and her stalking style should allow her to gain the all-important first run on some serious closers. 

Laurel Park – Laurel, Md.

Race 6 –City of Laurel Stakes

#1 Savoy Stomp (morning line, 3-1)

This Todd Pletcher charge showed promise as a 2-year-old, but following a disappointing run in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds, he was put on the shelf for several months. He resurfaced with a nice win in September and once again returns fresh for what should be another solid performance in this one. 

Race 10 – Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash Stakes

STALLWALKIN' DUDE

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

#2 Stallwalkin’ Dude (morning line, 5-2)

A true throwback horse with six wins from 15 starts this year, this 5-year-old son of City Place swings back quick off a better-than-it-looks eighth-place finish in the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He was only beaten 4 ¾ lengths that day and a troubled trip very likely cost him a better placing.

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