Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Nov. 13-16

Pop Culture

You should never apologize for winning.

My entire Breeders’ Cup was tied into Bayern, who, after wiping out half the field, including his main pace rival, at the start, was quite fortunate to survive the inquiry.

Did I feel guilty about cashing tickets?

Perhaps a little, but I also realize that I’ve been on the other side many times.

In any form of wagering, take it where you can get it. 

Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!

Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.

I have a wanted sign in Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I chose to punt.

That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.

Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!

Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek

Our second consecutive 2-1 week pushed us just a game under the break-even point for the season.

In two of the games we didn’t have to sweat. The New Orleans Saints romped the Carolina Panthers and the Miami Dolphins crushed the San Diego Chargers.

The theories were accurate, but the Philadelphia Eagles covered the spread against the Houston Texans, denying a perfect week. 

Pro Football Trifecta

Last week: 2-1 (.667); Season Total: 13-14 (.481)

Sunday, Nov. 9

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers, 1 p.m. ET

Two of the NFC favorites entering the season, both teams enter Sunday’s action with identical 4-4 records. The Saints have won their last two games by a combined 39 points and they’re 3-0 at home. The 49ers have lost two straight, and their problems run deeper than the field of play.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) at New York Jets, 1 p.m. ET

Following their 31-10 loss at Cleveland, the Steelers appeared to be on the verge of imploding. Since then, they’ve rattled off three consecutive wins and have looked dominant at times against solid competition. The Jets have one win all season and they are no closer to solving their QB issues. Management is under fire, and they don’t have the on-field leadership to right the ship. 

BEN ROETHLISBERGER HAS BEEN ON A HOT STREAK

WikiMedia Commons

St. Louis Rams (+7) at Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET

Perhaps the biggest surprise at the midway point of the NFL season, the Cardinals are 7-1 overall and a perfect 4-0 at home. They’ve won some close games that could have gone either way. They are also offensively challenged and face a capable Rams defense and a team that plays hard under Jeff Fisher. It wouldn’t be a complete shock to see the Rams, who have beaten the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco in recent weeks, win this game outright, and covering a touchdown seems likely in what should prove to be a low-scoring affair.

College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley

Let’s briefly take a look at our plays from a week ago.

Due to superstition, we will just move along knowing the turnaround is real.

On to the next one ...

College Football Pick Nine – Week 11

Last week: 6-3 (.333); Season Total: 27-28-1 (.491)

Thursday, Nov. 6

#21 Clemson (-21) @ Wake Forest (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Road teams have had success in weeknight games, and this talent gap is too apparent to ignore. Clemson is getting better; Wake Forest is just really bad.

Saturday, Nov. 8

#8 Michigan State (-3.5) vs. #14 Ohio State (8 p.m. ET, ABC)

J.T. Barrett hasn’t seen this type of atmosphere to date, nor has he seen a Pat Narduzzi defense. The Spartans fortify their position atop the Big-10 in this one. 

#2 Florida State (-19) vs. Virginia (6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

A struggling Virginia squad travels to Tallahassee, where the Seminoles are just begging themselves to play a complete 60 minutes. I think we see it here. 

Smiling Saban
WikiMedia Commons

#5 Alabama (-6.5) @ #16 LSU (8 p.m. ET, CBS)

Nick Saban. That’s what I see written all over this game.

#7 Kansas State (+6) @ #6 TCU (7:30 p.m. ET, FOX)

Both teams with a tough loss, but just one. Both teams with clutch road victories and stellar recent home Ws. This will be a great one, and decided by less than six.

#9 Arizona State (-2.5) vs. #10 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

The Sun Devils have shined lately as they quietly have entered the Top 10, and they will vault into potential playoff conversation with a Top 10 win in front of a national audience that we all can be awake for! 

Washington (+4.5) vs. #18 UCLA (7 p.m. ET, FOX)

Shaq Thompson will showcase himself to the world, and it’s prime timing for a big Husky home victory. Look for the upset here. 

Purdue (+17) vs #25 Wisconsin (noon ET, ESPNU)

Riding the Boilermaker Express to a fifth straight cover behind QB Austin Appleby.

Iowa (-1) @ Minnesota (noon ET, ESPN2)

Another gut call, looking at two teams headed in opposite directions. Iowa was extremely impressive last week, and the Gophers had all of last week, being a bye, to dwell on an ugly loss at Illinois. Minny has a gauntlet final three games of the year and may be looking ahead.

Ponies – by Joe Kristufek 

Breeders’ Cup weekend was quite fruitful.

All of my top picks – Goldencents (gutsy), Lady Eli (spectacular) and Untapable (despite a very wide trip) in this space, along with Hootenanny - won on Friday and Bayern’s controversial wire job buoyed a Saturday profit, too.

Originally I had the Japanese-bred Karakontie ON TOP, but after drawing post 14, I dropped him to second. I cashed some tickets, but it would have been nice to have been a hero!

Last week: 6-4-0-0 ($2 WPS * $36 wagered * $76.90 returned)
Season Total: 28-11-4-1 ($2 WPS * $168 wagered * $218.20 returned = $7.79 ROI)

Saturday, Nov. 8

Aqueduct – Jamaica, N.Y.

Race 7 – Long Island Handicap (Grade 3), Post Time 3:14 p.m. ET

#2 Viva Rafaela (morning-line odds 7-2)

It wouldn’t have been too much of a stretch for the connections to have run her in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, but despite several representative performances, she’s failed to win from eight starts this year and fits much better here. Natural speed is her greatest weapon, and in a race that appears to lack pace-pressing types, she might be able to control the action from go to whoa. 

Churchill Downs – Louisville, Ky.

Race 9 - River City Handicap (Grade 3), Post Time 4:37 p.m. ET

#8 Hamp (morning-line odds 15-1)

If he brings his ‘A’ game, the speedy Silver Max will be super tough to beat, but it’s very likely that an investment risk on him will not be worth the potential reward. Hamp intrigues me. He ran some deceivingly strong races over the winter at Gulfstream Park and in the spring in Maryland. The clunker two starts back on yielding turf at Belmont is a toss, and last out he closed well to be third behind a talented top pair, plus the wide trip didn’t do him any favors. 

Del Mar – Del Mar, Calif.

Race 8 – Let It Ride Stakes, Post Time 6:30 p.m. ET

#6 Awesome Return (morning-line odds 7-2)

Off since July, this 3-year-old California-bred may live up to his name today. Trainer Mike Puype is good with layoff types and Mike Smith has been lured to the saddle of a consistent and game colt. He’s trained sharply leading up to this and has fired fresh off the bench in the past.

 

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