A small but accomplished field of five older females will race 1 1/8 miles on the main track at Churchill Downs in Saturday’s $500,000 Fasig-Tipton Fleur de Lis Stakes.
The Fleur de Lis is part of the Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series and awards the winner a fees-paid berth to the Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff Oct. 31 at Keeneland.
Many bettors will expect #1 Splendora to secure first place. The 5-year-old mare has won six of her last seven starts, including the PNC Bank Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last November at Del Mar. She recently prevailed in the Grade 2 Shawnee Stakes going 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs and will be tough to beat if she brings her “A” game to the Fleur de Lis.
But will the added distance of the Fleur de Lis trip up Splendora? Most of her wins have come racing one mile or less. In all three of her races at distances ranging from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles, she’s lost ground through the final eighth of a mile. Furthermore, she was beaten when finishing second in two of them.
Splendora likes to race forwardly, but she could face pace pressure in the Fleur de Lis from #5 Shred the Gnar, winner of the Grade 1 Fasig-Tipton La Troienne Stakes May 1 at Churchill. A contested pace at 1 1/8 miles could open the door for #3 Immersive to spring an upset.
Immersive earned 2024 champion 2-year-old filly honors after a 4-for-4 campaign including Grade 1 wins in the Spinaway Stakes, Darley Alcibiades Stakes, NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She wasn’t as sharp during an abbreviated 3-year-old season, winning only the Seneca Stakes from three starts, but she was never worse than second and has shown signs of returning to peak form in 2026.
Indeed, Immersive started the year by finishing a good second in the Grade 3 Distaff Stakes sprinting seven-eighths of a mile. Then in the Shawnee, she initially couldn’t keep pace with Splendora’s burst of speed at the top of the stretch, but she never stopped fighting and gained some ground late to finish second by 2 3/4 lengths.
With a little better pace setup in the Fleur de Lis, Immersive is eligible to turn the tables on Splendora. We suggest betting Immersive to win, and — if you’re budget can accommodate it — playing her over Splendora and 2025 Breeders’ Cup Distaff third-place finisher #2 Regaled in an exacta, which requires selecting the top two finishers in order.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #3 Immersive
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 7th race, $10 to win on 3
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$15 to win on #3 Immersive
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 7th race, $15 to win on 3
$10 Exacta: 3 with 1
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 7th race, $10 exacta 3 with 1
$5 Exacta: 3 with 2
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 7th race, $5 exacta 3 with 2
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
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