The $1 million, Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes Saturday at Monmouth Park drew a field of eight vying for an automatic berth in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic this fall. The field is led by Grade 1 Preakness Stakes winner Journalism, who also finished second in both the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets.
Among the other contenders, Burnham Square won the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes before posting a sixth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby; he then improved to finish second in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes last month. Gosger missed by a half-length to Journalism in the Preakness following a win in the Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes. Bracket Buster won the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth last month and two races prior to that finished second behind Gosger in the Lexington. Goal Oriented, who will attempt to give trainer Bob Baffert his record-extending 10th career win in the Haskell, tried stakes competition for the first time in the Preakness and finished fourth. Wildncrazynight checked in second, seven lengths behind Bracket Buster, in the Pegasus, while National Law finished fourth in that same race. Kentucky Outlaw won the Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth in May before posting a third-place effort in the Delaware Derby in his most recent start.
Analysis and top contenders:
There’s little doubt the top three contenders in the Haskell – meaning the horses with the highest probability to win – are Burnham Square, Gosger and Journalism. All three should benefit from a projected pace scenario where the other five horses entered in the Haskell may duel for the lead from the start, compromising their chances to win by setting fast fractions and setting up a perfect scenario for the late-running top trio. There’s also a chance that one or more of these secondary contenders might not get the lead they appear to need to succeed.
Goal Oriented may be the fastest of this speed-favoring quintet based on his win early on Kentucky Derby day in an allowance race at Churchill Downs where he led from start to finish through fast fractions and held on by three-quarters of a length. In doing so, Goal Oriented earned a 109 Equibase Speed Figure, which was as good as the same 109 figure Journalism earned winning the Preakness two weeks later. However, in Saturday’s Haskell, Goal Oriented drew the outside post in this field of eight and has a number of horses to contend with who can either keep him from getting the lead, forcing him to go wide into the first turn, or can flank him and cause him to tire. If you’ll recall in the Preakness, Clever Again was sent for the lead from the eight post which Goal Oriented draws today, resulting in Clever Again setting a fast pace for the first mile before fading to last. In this field, Goal Oriented may do the same thing since early speed is his best asset, but keep in mind that Bracket Buster just won the Pegasus Stakes (with a 101 figure) when leading virtually from start to finish.
Furthermore, since Wildncrazynight battled with Bracket Buster for the lead for the first half-mile in the Pegasus (earning a 90 figure when second in the race), it is highly likely Goal Oriented will have company from the start. Add Kentucky Outlaw to the mix as well, as he has been first after three quarters of a mile in three of his four route races to date, the best of which was a win in the Long Branch Stakes in May that earned a 95 figure. Add it all up, and we have a recipe which favors the stalkers and closers in the Haskell field. One of those closers, National Law, might be considered a contender except for the fact his best two races yielded 82 and 87 Equibase Speed Figures, which are nowhere in the range of 102 to 109 the winner of this year’s Haskell will likely earn.
With a projected fast pace scenario in mind, Gosger gets slight preference as a win candidate. The colt has run just four times to date, never finishing worse than second and boasting an improving pattern of Equibase Speed Figures which suggests he may run the best race of his career in the Haskell and post the mild upset in doing so. When he stretched out to two turns for the first time in his career this past April in the Lexington Stakes, Gosger rallied from fourth with a quarter mile to run and swept by the early leader, Bracket Buster, en route to an impressive win, earning a 96 figure. Gosger then improved significantly to earn a 108 figure in the Preakness, where he made a move entering the stretch and was in front by five lengths with an eighth of a mile to run, only to be passed late by the more experienced Journalism, who had run six races to date compared to three for Gosger. He still competed valiantly in defeat, and Gosger can take another step forward and win this year’s Haskell Stakes.
Journalism has no knocks against him, having won five of seven route races and finishing second in the other two. He’s been consistent in how fast he’s run as well, earning 110 and 108 figures, respectively, earlier this year via wins in the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby, and then earning a 109 figure winning the Preakness. In the Belmont Stakes last month, Journalism ran the same sort of race as Gosger did in the Preakness, moving up from second into the stretch to lead with an eighth of a mile to run before being overtaken by Sovereignty. In the Kentucky Derby, Journalism rallied from 10th to make the lead in the stretch before being passed by Sovereignty as well. Since Sovereignty is skipping the Haskell, Journalism has every right to win Saturday if, as predicted, the early pace battle between two to four of the other seven horses occurs.
Burnham Square has run brilliantly on occasion, such as when rallying from 11 lengths back in the early stages to win the Blue Grass Stakes in April with a then career-best 104 figure. After running seventh for the first half mile in the Kentucky Derby, Burnham Square found himself in traffic trouble, which forced him to drop back to 12th, before he recovered and ran on to end up sixth. Five weeks later in the Matt Winn Stakes, Burnham Square rebounded in a big way when earning a new career-best 107 figure but was no match for winner East Avenue, who had an uncontested lead from start to finish. It is unlikely that any horse will have an easy early lead in the Haskell as East Avenue did in the Matt Winn, so Burnham Square should be rallying strongly in the late stages to help set up what should be a thrilling finish.
Win contenders in preference order:
Gosger
Journalism
Burnham Square
