The $1.5 million Longines Kentucky Oaks May 2 at Churchill Downs is the most important dirt race of the year that is restricted to 3-year-old fillies and typically goes a long way toward determining the Eclipse Award in the division. Last year’s winner Thorpedo Anna not only was named champion 3-year-old filly but also took home the Eclipse Award as Horse of the Year.

There are many variables to consider when evaluating a race like the Kentucky Oaks with a strong group of 14 elite fillies. Past success, class, pace, speed figures, and value all factor into the equation when deciding which filly to bet in the race and other factors like post position, how the fillies will handle a massive crowd, and weather also come into play. Weather is the focus of this blog as there is rain in the forecast most of the week in Louisville and it could lead to a wet racing surface on Oaks (and Kentucky Derby) day.

The key part of this blog will be predicting which Kentucky Oaks runners might benefit from some moisture in the track and identifying whose win chances might be compromised, but let’s start with the basics: what is an “off” or wet track?  

In the simplest terms, an “off” is a racing surface rated anything other than fast.

We have previously used the quick explanation below of dirt track conditions you might see/hear on Kentucky Derby/Oaks weekend:

• good (track): a dirt track that is almost fast.
• wet fast (track): a track that has moisture on the surface that has not had time to impact the base of the surface.
• muddy (track): condition of a racetrack that is wet but has no standing water.
• sloppy (track): a racing surface that is saturated with water and has standing water visible.
• sealed (track): a dirt track that has been floated (packed down) and not subsequently harrowed.

The best predictor for which runners will handle an “off” track is past success. A racehorse who has won or run fast on a wet track is more likely to excel than a horse who has performed poorly, especially if that success came at the same surface/venue as the race in which they are entered.

The table below lists how this year’s Kentucky Oaks contenders have performed on an “off” track with their career record, top Beyer Speed Figure on a wet track, and best Equibase Speed Figure on a wet track. The best Beyer and Equibase Speed Figures from among the Oaks entrants are bolded as are the Oaks contenders with a win on a wet track.

Good Cheer wins on a sloppy track last fall. (Coady Media)

Unbeaten #11 Good Cheer, the 6-5 morning-line favorite, won her lone start on an “off” track and she did so impressively right here at Churchill Downs. The Medaglia d’Oro filly romped by 17 lengths (yes, 17!) in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race when rallying from last to first at Churchill Sept. 28, 2024, and earned the highest Equibase Speed Figure on an “off” track in the Oaks field. The favorite appears to relish a wet track.

Likewise, #2 Simply Joking won her lone start on an “off” track, posting the highest Beyer Speed Figure among the field on a wet surface when winning the Fasig-Tipton Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds by 2 ½ lengths Jan. 18. #10 Take Charge Milady was unplaced on a muddy track in her career debut in July 2024 at Ellis Park, but two starts later at Oaklawn Park the Take Charge Indy filly rolled by four lengths in a one-mile maiden race at one mile on a muddy track.

#4 Drexel Hill, #13 Bless the Broken, and #14 Quietside all placed in races on an “off” track while earning strong speed figures. Both #1 Early On and #12 Anna’s Promise also finished in the top three on wet tracks with less-encouraging speed figures.

#7 La Cara ran arguably the worst race of her career on an “off” track at Churchill Downs, but it came in a sprint in her career debut, which is often a learning experience, so I would not dismiss her chances based off of that.

If the track is wet on Friday, Good Cheer and Simply Joking should thrive and longshots Drexel Hill and Bless the Broken could be worth a long look to spice up exacta and trifecta bets.

Another useful tool for predicting whether or not horses will thrive on an “off” track is the Tomlinson rating, especially for the five Kentucky Oaks entrants that have no experience on a wet track. Daily Racing Form uses Tomlinson ratings to make an educated guess how racehorses will handle wet tracks based on performance of the horse’s sire and broodmare sire’s progeny on wet tracks. For the Kentucky Oaks field, the table below lists the contenders from high (best for a wet track) to low:

Using the Tomlinson ratings, #9 Tenma might be worth moving up in evaluation if the surface is wet Friday and I gave a longer look to Quietside, who ran second in the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes last summer on a muddy track in her second start at seven-eighths of a mile. She’s improved a lot since then and held her own against elite competition as an inexperienced filly on a wet track. #6 Ballerina d’Oro also could get a boost from an “off” track, while I would be somewhat less inclined to bet #12 Anna’s Promise and #3 Fondly on a wet surface.