If recent history is an indicator, the $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Fair Grounds Oaks March 22 figures to be a key steppingstone to the Longines Kentucky Oaks. Six fillies since the turn of the century have swept the Fair Grounds Oaks and Kentucky Oaks – Ashado (2004), Summerly (2005), Proud Spell (2008), Rachel Alexandra (2009), Believe You Can (2012), and Untapable (2014) – and two others, Serengeti Empress in 2019 and Pretty Mischievous in 2023, competed in the Fair Grounds Oaks and went on to win the Kentucky Oaks.

This year’s 1 1/16-mile race drew nine 3-year-old fillies and will be run on the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby undercard at Fair Grounds, led by undefeated #7 Good Cheer, winner of the Fasig-Tipton Rachel Alexandra Stakes by 6 ¼ lengths at this track and distance on Feb. 15 in her first start in 11 weeks. Good Cheer has won her five career starts by margins ranging from 2 ½ lengths to 17 lengths for a combined total margin of 38 ¾ lengths. The Medaglia d’Oro filly should be even better in hersecond start of the year for trainer Brad Cox and looms a formidable favorite for the Fair Grounds Oaks and a leading contender for the Kentucky Oaks. 

Two of the main challengers are distant Rachel Alexandra runner-up #2 Gowells Delight and third-place finisher #6 Bless the Broken but my guess is that last year’s NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies third-place finisher #9 Quickick could be the second choice in the betting.

She passed four horses late in a distant fifth-place finish in her 3-year-old debut in the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes Feb. 23 and is eligible to improve in her second start off the layoff, but I will take a stand against her here and I will also try to beat the aforementioned Gowells Delight and Bless the Broken.

#8 Secret Faith is taking a big step up in class from competing in Louisiana-bred stakes to a Grade 2 while stretching out from seven-eighths of a mile to 1 1/16 miles, but she has seven wins and a second in eight races and a high cruising speed. #5 Her Laugh won the Untapable Stakes on this track Jan. 18 and is better than she showed when finishing a distant second after a poor start in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. I’m a little concerned about distance with #3 Ahavah but the recent debut winner sprinting has a ton of upside as a half-sister to Grade 1-winning sprinter Vahva, and I think she’s another good play underneath Good Cheer.

My plan is to bet the trifecta keying #7 Good Cheer on top of #3 Ahavah, #5 Her Laugh, and #8 Secret Faith in the second and third positions. If any of the three I plan to use underneath are scratched – Secret Faith is cross-entered in the Crescent City Oaks earlier on Saturday’s card at Fair Grounds – I’ll take the extra money and play an exacta with Good Cheer over the other two in addition to the trifecta.

Wagering Strategy on a $25 Budget

$4 trifecta: 7 with 3,5,8 with 3,5,8 (total cost $24)

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, Race 11, $4 trifecta part wheel, 7 with 3,5,8 with 3,5,8