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Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
Six Beginner Betting Tools
Saturday, March 15
This Saturday will be the running of the re-branded $500,000 Virginia Derby, formerly a late summer turf race and now a dirt race on the road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. The Virginia Derby will be the headline attraction on a 10-race Saturday card at Colonial Downs that will also feature the $250,000 Virginia Oaks. The winners of both races will garner enough points to qualify for their respective goals in May’s Kentucky Derby and Longines Kentucky Oaks. Meanwhile, the goal for handicappers will be to cash tickets on these two feature races by picking the winners and the exactas and trifectas. Let’s get to work.
Colonial Downs, Race 8, $250,000 Virginia Oaks, 4:25 p.m. ET
The 1 1/16-mile Virginia Oaks has drawn an eight-horse field of 3-year-old fillies hoping to punch their ticket to the Kentucky Oaks. The one-turn route layout of this race could be key in helping #1 Icona Mama post the upset at odds of 8-1 on the morning line. Icona Mama’s big win so far was a $100,000 stakes at six furlongs at Penn National, but this is also a horse that was good enough to run third in last summer’s Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs at a one-turn mile when beaten less than a length by La Cara, who is now a stakes winner at ages 2 and 3. Icona Mama got a seven-furlong prep race under her belt last time in her 3-year-old debut at Laurel Park, and now she is ready to stretch out to 1 1/16 miles in the second race off the layoff with John Velazquez picking up the mount. Trainer Ken McPeek ships in a pair of fillies for this spot, and both of them can round out your spots in the exacta and trifecta. #3 Gowells Delight exits a respectable second-place effort last time in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds behind Good Cheer, perhaps the leading 3-year-old filly in the nation. #4 Anonima flopped last time out in Oaklawn’s Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes when losing ground wide and unable to get into the race from post-position 11, but she looked good enough when winning her two races prior to that at this distance to warrant inclusion on your tickets.
The Play: Bet on #1 Icona Mama (8-1) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes with #3 Gowells Delight (3-1) and #4 Anonima (6-1).
Colonial Downs, Race 9, $500,000 Virginia Derby, 5:10 p.m. ET
The Virginia Derby has drawn a 10-horse field of 3-year-olds set to run 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for a purse of a half-million. The 1 1/8-mile distance on the main track at Colonial Downs is run around one turn, and that could help the front-runners. Dirt routes at Colonial have favored horses racing on or close to the pace, or at least stalkers, during the track’s most recent four-year stretch, so the speedy favorite #6 Getaway Car will be tough to catch. Getaway Car exits a non-graded Kentucky Derby prep win in the $400,000 Sunland Park Derby where he fought back late to preserve a nose win after setting the pace at 1 1/16 miles for trainer Bob Baffert. Can he also go all the way at 1 1/8 miles? Perhaps against this field he can, but at low odds he’s still worth taking a shot against. Let’s go with trainer Brad Cox’s entrant, #7 Rapture, who will be making his stakes debut off a 6 ½-length maiden win at Oaklawn Park that was nothing short of lights out with a final time less than two-fifths of a second slower than Speed King ran to win the $1 million Southwest Stakes that day at the same distance. Finally, if you are looking for a late runner in this field to round out the exactas or trifectas, the only closer in the race that actually closes is #4 Omaha Omaha, who came from far back to post blow outs at Delaware Park and Laurel Park in his two wins, closed from far back for second in the $150,000 Jerome Stakes, and then stayed on well enough for third last time in the $250,000 Withers Stakes at 1 1/8 miles.
The Play: Bet #7 Rapture (5-1) to win and box him in exactas and trifectas with #4 Omaha Omaha (10-1) and #6 Getaway Car (9-5).