For the second straight year, the $2 million Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets is taking place at 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga Race Course, rather than its traditional configuration of 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park.

Nevertheless, the history of the Belmont remains relevant for identifying the most likely winner in 2025. Last year, our guidelines outlining the historical profile of a typical Belmont winner highlighted eventual 17-1 upsetter Dornoch as a primary win threat.

Here are our tips for using history as a guide to help handicap the 2025 Belmont Stakes:

Some degree of early speed is beneficial

Since 2005, 16 out of 20 Belmont winners were racing within 4 1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile, including eight winners who were racing in first, second, or third place. Having some degree of early speed is an asset in the Belmont, and deep closers only occasionally visit the winner’s circle.

Note: As part of a Triple Crown season restructured due to COVID-19, the 2020 Belmont Stakes was contested at 1 1/8 miles.

Favor Kentucky Derby starters

Horses who started in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby have won 12 of the last 20 editions of the Belmont, with 10 of those winners going directly from the Derby to the Belmont.

Avoid betting beaten Preakness starters

Not since Victory Gallop in 1998 has a horse bounced back from a defeat in the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes to win the Belmont.

Don’t underestimate double-digit longshots

Eleven of the last 25 Belmont winners started at double-digit odds.

Respect proven graded stakes winners

Established graded stakes winners have won 16 of the last 25 editions of the Belmont. They’ve been especially formidable in recent years, winning 11 of the last 13 editions of the Belmont Stakes.

Favor the progeny of Grade 1-winning route racers

While this trend could be affected by the shortening of the Belmont from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/4 miles, it’s worth noting 22 of the last 25 Belmont winners were sired by stallions who won at the Grade 1 level racing 1 1/8 miles or farther.

Conclusions

Preakness winner Journalism (Eclipse Sportswire)

History suggests the most likely winner of the 2025 Belmont Stakes is Journalism.

Journalism has some tactical speed and has raced within 4 1/2 lengths of the lead after a half-mile in five of his seven starts. He competed in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, finishing second. He avoided defeat in the Preakness Stakes by battling his way through severe traffic to win by half a length. He’s a proven graded stakes winner, and he’s a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, who won a bevy of Grade 1 races (including the Preakness) racing 1 1/8 miles or farther.

All told, Journalism matches five of our six historical angles, missing out on a complete sweep only because he’s the possible favorite and won’t start at anywhere near double-digit odds.

The other horse who could vie for favoritism is Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty, whom history indicates could be at a disadvantage in the Belmont. Sovereignty is purely a deep closer, and his sire (Into Mischief) failed to win a Grade 1 race at 1 1/8 miles or farther, so Sovereignty matches only three of our six historical angles.

Enjoy the Belmont Stakes!